Why Water Markets Are Not Quick Fixes for Droughts in the Western United States

Water in the western United States can be bought and sold, but the transactions will always be complicated. Transfers of water will always be expensive and time consuming because of the hydrologic and institutional interconnections inherent to water. Our data show that most of the water rights in the West are messy. Therefore, markets cannot be quick fixes, and using markets for future water allocation, even if it is economically efficient, will take time and resources to set up. Untangling serial uses and negotiating multiple ownership claims are hurdles, not barriers, and they can be overcome in time but will require both time and money. Buying existing water rights may be less costly than building infrastructure to transport available water from long distances or desalinating seawater, but the transactions will come at a price. Municipalities may purchase water from farmers and thus bear the transaction costs directly, or the private sector may purchase agricultural water (e.g., Two Rivers Water and Farming, Colorado (Landry 2012)), bear the associated risk and transaction costs, and sell it on to municipalities. In either case, the end users will inevitably pay higher prices for water. Markets can and will be part of western U.S. water allocation, but they do not provide quick solutions. Droughts can focus public attention on the value of water and potentially increase the willingness-to-pay prices that reflect the transaction costs of tangled western water markets

Discrete analogue computing with rotor-routers

Rotor-routing is a procedure for routing tokens through a network that can implement certain kinds of computation. These computations are inherently asynchronous (the order in which tokens are routed makes no difference) and distributed (information is spread throughout the system). It is also possible to efficiently check that a computation has been carried out correctly in less time than the computation itself required, provided one has a certificate that can itself be computed by the rotor-router network. Rotor-router networks can be viewed as both discrete analogues of continuous linear systems and deterministic analogues of stochastic processes.Comment: To appear in Chaos Special Focus Issue on Intrinsic and Designed Computatio

Coherent-feedback quantum control with a dynamic compensator

I present an experimental realization of a coherent-feedback control system that was recently proposed for testing basic principles of linear quantum stochastic control theory [M. R. James, H. I. Nurdin and I. R. Petersen, to appear in IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control (2008), arXiv:quant-ph/0703150v2]. For a dynamical plant consisting of an optical ring-resonator, I demonstrate ~ 7 dB broadband disturbance rejection of injected laser signals via all-optical feedback with a tailored dynamic compensator. Comparison of the results with a transfer function model pinpoints critical parameters that determine the coherent-feedback control system's performance.Comment: 4 pages, 4 EPS figure

Rayleigh scattering in the transmission spectrum of HAT-P-18b

We have performed ground-based transmission spectroscopy of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-18b using the ACAM instrument on the William Herschel Telescope (WHT). Differential spectroscopy over an entire night was carried out at a resolution of $R \approx 400$ using a nearby comparison star. We detect a bluewards slope extending across our optical transmission spectrum which runs from 4750 to 9250\AA. The slope is consistent with Rayleigh scattering at the equilibrium temperature of the planet (852K). We do not detect enhanced sodium absorption, which indicates that a high-altitude haze is masking the feature and giving rise to the Rayleigh slope. This is only the second discovery of a Rayleigh scattering slope in a hot Jupiter atmosphere from the ground, and our study illustrates how ground-based observations can provide transmission spectra with precision comparable to the Hubble Space Telescope.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Planetological implications of mass loss from the early Sun

The element lithium is observed to be underabundant in the Sun by a factor of approx. equal to 100. To account for this depletion, Boothroyd et al. (Ap. J., in press 1991) proposed a model in which the Sun's zero-age-main-sequence mass was approx. 1.1 solar magnitude. If this is the explanation for the lithium depletion, then astronomical observations of F/G dwarfs in clusters suggest that the timescale for mass loss is approx. equal to 0.6 Gyr. Assuming this approximate timescale, the authors investigated several planetological implications of the astrophysical model

A Dynamical Analysis of the Proposed Circumbinary HW Virginis Planetary System

In 2009, the discovery of two planets orbiting the evolved binary star system HW Virginis was announced, based on systematic variations in the timing of eclipses between the two stars. The planets invoked in that work were significantly more massive than Jupiter, and moved on orbits that were mutually crossing - an architecture which suggests that mutual encounters and strong gravitational interactions are almost guaranteed. In this work, we perform a highly detailed analysis of the proposed HW Vir planetary system. First, we consider the dynamical stability of the system as proposed in the discovery work. Through a mapping process involving 91,125 individual simulations, we find that the system is so unstable that the planets proposed simply cannot exist, due to mean lifetimes of less than a thousand years across the whole parameter space. We then present a detailed re-analysis of the observational data on HW Vir, deriving a new orbital solution that provides a very good fit to the observational data. Our new analysis yields a system with planets more widely spaced, and of lower mass, than that proposed in the discovery work, and yields a significantly greater (and more realistic) estimate of the uncertainty in the orbit of the outermost body. Despite this, a detailed dynamical analysis of this new solution similarly reveals that it also requires the planets to move on orbits that are simply not dynamically feasible. Our results imply that some mechanism other than the influence of planetary companions must be the principal cause of the observed eclipse timing variations for HW Vir. If the sys- tem does host exoplanets, they must move on orbits differing greatly from those previously proposed. Our results illustrate the critical importance of performing dynamical analyses as a part of the discovery process for multiple-planet exoplanetary systems.Comment: Accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

Can we identify genes with increased phylogenetic reliability?

© The Author(s) 2015. Topological heterogeneity among gene trees is widely observed in phylogenomic analyses and some of this variation is likely caused by systematic error in gene tree estimation. Systematic error can be mitigated by improving models of sequence evolution to account for all evolutionary processes relevant to each gene or identifying those genes whose evolution best conforms to existing models. However, the best method for identifying such genes is not well established. Here, we ask if filtering genes according to their clock-likeness or posterior predictive effect size (PPES, an inference-based measure of model violation) improves phylogenetic reliability and congruence. We compared these approaches to each other, and to the common practice of filtering based on rate of evolution, using two different metrics. First, we compared gene-tree topologies to accepted reference topologies. Second, we examined topological similarity among gene trees in filtered sets. Our results suggest that filtering genes based on clock-likeness and PPES can yield a collection of genes with more reliable phylogenetic signal. For the two exemplar data sets we explored, from yeast and amniotes, clock-likeness and PPES outperformed rate-based filtering in both congruence and reliability

Anomalous response of superconducting titanium nitride resonators to terahertz radiation

We present an experimental study of KIDs fabricated of atomic layer deposited TiN films, and characterized at radiation frequencies of $350$~GHz. The responsivity to radiation is measured and found to increase with increasing radiation powers, opposite to what is expected from theory and observed for hybrid niobium titanium nitride / aluminium (NbTiN/Al) and all-aluminium (all-Al) KIDs. The noise is found to be independent of the level of the radiation power. The noise equivalent power (NEP) improves with higher radiation powers, also opposite to what is observed and well understood for hybrid NbTiN/Al and all-Al KIDs. We suggest that an inhomogeneous state of these disordered superconductors should be used to explain these observations