Fire Refugia Function and Composition in Dry Mixed-Conifer Forests of Oregon’s Blue Mountains

Contemporary fire effects are raising concerns about the resistance and resilience of dry mixed-conifer forests to large wildfires. Fire refugia – unburned or low-severity patches within fire perimeters – are understudied components of post-fire mosaics that may be key drivers of forest recovery following high-severity fire. Little is known about the capacity of dry mixed-conifer forests to regenerate forest following high-severity fire in Oregon’s Blue Mountains, and more broadly, there are significant knowledge gaps regarding the function and composition of fire refugia in dry forest ecosystems in the western United States. This thesis took advantage of a large natural experiment resulting from four large fires that burned in the Blue Mountains between 2000 and 2005. The primary objectives were to: (a) quantify post-fire conifer regeneration in stand-replacement patches and determine the influence of local- and landscape-scale refugial seed source pattern on post-fire forest regeneration, and (b) characterize fire refugia structure and composition, and compare understory plant communities in fire refugia to the higher-severity burned matrix. Dry mixed-conifer forests in the Blue Mountains of Oregon show evidence of resilience to high-severity fire effects, 12 – 17 years post-fire. Seed sources that survived fire in refugia are critical drivers of post-fire forest regeneration in adjacent high-severity burned areas. In contrast to slow or absent post-fire forest recovery reported in dry forests in other regions, regenerating conifer seedlings were generally abundant in our study area: over 80% of plots in stand-replacement patches contained regenerating seedlings and the median seedling density across all plots was 1100 seedlings ha-1. Consistent with previous studies, we found that proximity to surviving seed source is a key driver of post-fire conifer regeneration. In addition, high-resolution maps of landscape fire refugia, developed using 1 meter aerial imagery, allowed us to provide novel insights into the influence of landscape patterns of surviving seed source on post-fire forest regeneration, and the additive effect of multiple seed sources contributing to a site’s capacity to reestablish forest following high-severity fire. Although stand-replacement patches in our study fires have been largely converted from forests to shrublands 12 – 17 years post-fire, we did not find evidence of a competitive interaction between regenerating conifers and shrubs. In addition, many seedlings appear to have recently emerged above the shrub canopy, suggesting these sites have not been permanently “captured” by woody understory species. Understory plant community composition in fire refugia and the higher-severity burned matrix was similar 12 – 17 years post-fire, despite substantial structural differences between refugia and stand-replacement patches. We found no evidence of differences between fire refugia and stand-replacement patches in species richness, diversity, or invasibility by exotic annual grasses. Although plant community composition was similar between plot types, we did identify several indicator species for fire refugia and stand-replacement patches, suggesting that differences between these plot types strongly influences the abundance of some plant species. Our findings highlight the capacity of understory plant communities in the Blue Mountains to recover following fire, and together with results from our seedling regeneration analysis, these results suggest that dry mixed-conifer forests in our study area are resilient to even high-severity fire effects. We anticipate that in the absence of subsequent disturbance (e.g., reburn), dry mixed-conifer forest in the Blue Mountains will recover following stand-replacement fire, provided adequate seed sources survived fire within refugia. Fire refugia in the Blue Mountains appear to be important primarily as remnant forest structure and as surviving seed sources essential for the reestablishment of trees in high-severity burned areas, rather than as “safe havens” for plant communities otherwise absent from the higher-severity burned matrix. Understanding the drivers of forest resistance and resilience to landscape-scale disturbance is increasingly important in the context of accelerating global change. This thesis provides new insights into the composition and ecological function of dry mixed-conifer fire refugia in Oregon’s Blue Mountains, as well as the important role fire refugia play in supporting post-fire forest resilience. Studies like this one can contribute to a growing recognition that fire refugia are important, but perhaps underappreciated, components of post-fire landscapes. However, for the concept of fire refugia to gain lasting currency with scientists and managers, more research will be needed to understand the drivers, persistence, composition, and ecological functions of fire refugia across a diversity of forest ecosystems and fire regimes

Foreclosure to Homelessness 2009: The Forgotten Victims of SubPrime Crisis

This study found that there are many interrelated consequences of the economic downturn that lead to both home foreclosure and to homelessness. There is an increased need for affordable housing, as well as targeted legal assistance, health care, living-wage jobs, income supports, access to education, civil rights protections and the various supports that will continue to be needed as a result of the recession.John Parvensky, Board of Directors President for the National Coalition for the Homeless and Executive Director of the Colorado Coalition for the Homeless states, "This report underscores the fact that we as a nation need to strengthen our efforts to prevent homelessness resulting from this economic crisis, while creating sufficient new affordable rental housing to ensure that no family in America has to experience the tragedy of homelessness."In a national survey of homeless service and advocacy agencies conducted by the these groups, 79 percent of respondents stated that at least some of their clients were homeless as a result of foreclosure, and about half estimated that more than ten percent of their clients were homeless because of foreclosure on a home they had been occupying. During 2008, RealtyTrac reported 3,157,806 foreclosure filings -- default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions, an 81 percent jump from 2007 and a 225 percent increase from 2006."We are one step away from foreclosure. More and more families and children are affected by job loss and the economy. 'Getting back on your feet' is next to impossible in today's society. The public needs to be made aware of who is becoming homeless... and that they could be next - just like any average family," an individual respondent to the national survey from North Carolina reported

Using Probe Data Analytics for Assessing Freeway Speed Reductions During Rain Events

Rain impacts roadways such as wet pavement, standing water, decreased visibility, and wind gusts and can lead to hazardous driving conditions. This study investigates the use of high fidelity Doppler data at 1 km spatial and 2-minute temporal resolution in combination with commercial probe speed data on freeways. Segment-based space-mean speeds were used and drops in speeds during rainfall events of 5.5 mm/hour or greater over a one-month period on a section of four to six-lane interstate were assessed. Speed reductions were evaluated as a time series over a 1-hour window with the rain data. Three interpolation methods for estimating rainfall rates were tested and seven metrics were developed for the analysis. The study found sharp drops in speed of more than 40 mph occurred at estimated rainfall rates of 30 mm/hour or greater, but the drops did not become more severe beyond this threshold. The average time of first detected rainfall to impacting speeds was 17 minutes. The bilinear method detected the greatest number of events during the 1-month period, with the most conservative rate of predicted rainfall. The range of rainfall intensities were estimated between 7.5 to 106 mm/hour for the 39 events. This range was much greater than the heavy rainfall categorization at 16 mm/hour in previous studies reported in the literature. The bilinear interpolation method for Doppler data is recommended because it detected the greatest number of events and had the longest rain duration and lowest estimated maximum rainfall out of three methods tested, suggesting the method balanced awareness of the weather conditions around the roadway with isolated, localized rain intensities

Leveraging Telematics and Weather Data to Study the Productivity of Roadside Mowers

The Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) is responsible for the construction and maintenance of approximately 11,000 centerline miles of state roads, US routes and interstates. Mowing operations along the state rights-of-way to manage vegetation consume considerable resources. Mowing activities are usually reported by daily work orders and it is difficult to obtain quantitative information characterizing the utilization and productivity of the mowing operations. This research uses telematics data from commercial sensors to track the daily activity of seven mowers in the Fort Wayne district. Weather data from NOAA was also captured to estimate the weather related delays. During a one-month period, the mowers collectively covered a total of around 1170 miles and an area of nearly 1800 acres of mowing. Crews worked alternative work schedules with extended hours four days a week. On an average 9.5 hour work day approximately 50% of the time is spent actively mowing. The simple telematics based metrics and visualization graphics proposed in this paper can be used by agencies to evaluate the efficiency of their mowing operations to provide guidance on resource allocation, scheduling, and comparison with alternative contract mowing. The proposed utilization graphics may be of particular interest to agencies as they provide a concise way of communicating to stakeholders the overall efficiency of the mowing operations and can be used to identify opportunities for efficiency improvements

Contributions of Fire Refugia to Resilient Ponderosa Pine and Dry Mixed‐Conifer Forest Landscapes

Altered fire regimes can drive major and enduring compositional shifts or losses of forest ecosystems. In western North America, ponderosa pine and dry mixed‐conifer forest types appear increasingly vulnerable to uncharacteristically extensive, high‐severity wildfire. However, unburned or only lightly impacted forest stands that persist within burn mosaics—termed fire refugia—may serve as tree seed sources and promote landscape recovery. We sampled tree regeneration along gradients of fire refugia proximity and density at 686 sites within the perimeters of 12 large wildfires that occurred between 2000 and 2005 in the interior western United States. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to elucidate statistical relationships between tree regeneration and refugia pattern, including a new metric that incorporates patch proximity and proportional abundance. These relationships were then used to develop a spatially explicit landscape simulation model. We found that regeneration by ponderosa pine and obligate‐seeding mixed‐conifer tree species assemblages was strongly and positively predicted by refugia proximity and density. Simulation models revealed that for any given proportion of the landscape occupied by refugia, small patches produced greater landscape recovery than large patches. These results highlight the disproportionate importance of small, isolated islands of surviving trees, which may not be detectable with coarse‐scale satellite imagery. Findings also illustrate the interplay between patch‐scale resistance and landscape‐scale resilience: Disturbance‐resistant settings (fire refugia) can entrain resilience (forest regeneration) across the burn matrix. Implications and applications for land managers and conservation practitioners include strategies for the promotion and maintenance of fire refugia as components of resilient forest landscapes

A review of inclusive business models and their application in aquaculture development

For aquaculture to continue along its current growth trajectory and contribute towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, value chains must become more inclusive. Smallholders and other local value chain actors are often constrained by circumstances and market failures in the global aquaculture industry. Integrating these actors into aquaculture value chains through inclusive business models (IBMs) is often touted as a solution to sustainable and ethical trade and business that can generate development outcomes. We reviewed 36 papers under seven business models commonly used in agriculture development to assess their application in aquaculture value chains in lower‐income countries. A global value chain (GVC) analysis is used to unpack the economic and social upgrading objectives of the different IBMs, as well as the types of relational coordination used between actors in the chain to achieve development outcomes. The extent to which these IBMs helped poor actors overcome certain barriers is evaluated with a focus on how they may ensure or be a risk to inclusiveness through the relations and upgrading opportunities evident in their make‐up. The analysis found that the majority of the models focused on economic upgrading over social upgrading. Providing opportunities for the latter is key to achieving the inclusive objectives of IBMs. Greater horizontal coordination between actors can create further opportunities for economic upgrading established under vertical coordination with other nodes upstream and downstream in a value chain. There is a need to further contextualize these models to aquaculture systems and develop clear indicators of inclusiveness

A Rapid Electronic Cognitive Assessment Measure for Multiple Sclerosis: Validation of Cognitive Reaction, an Electronic Version of the Symbol Digit Modalities Test

Background: incorporating cognitive testing into routine clinical practice is a challenge in multiple sclerosis (MS), given the wide spectrum of both cognitive and physical impairments people can have and the time that testing requires. Shortened paper and verbal assessments predominate but still are not used routinely. Computer-based tests are becoming more widespread; however, changes in how a paper test is implemented can impact what exactly is being assessed in an individual. The Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) is one validated test that forms part of the cognitive batteries used in MS and has some computer-based versions. We developed a tablet-based SDMT variant that has the potential to be ultimately deployed to patients' own devices.Objective: this paper aims to develop, validate, and deploy a computer-based SDMT variant, the Cognition Reaction (CoRe) test, that can reliably replicate the characteristics of the paper-based SDMT.Methods: we carried out analysis using Pearson and intraclass correlations, as well as a Bland-Altman comparison, to examine consistency between the SDMT and CoRe tests and for test-retest reliability. The SDMT and CoRe tests were evaluated for sensitivity to disability levels and age. A novel metric in CoRe was found: question answering velocity could be calculated. This was evaluated in relation to disability levels and age for people with MS and compared with a group of healthy control volunteers.Results: SDMT and CoRe test scores were highly correlated and consistent with 1-month retest values. Lower scores were seen in patients with higher age and some effect was seen with increasing disability. There was no learning effect evident. Question answering velocity demonstrated a small increase in speed over the 90-second duration of the test in people with MS and healthy controls.Conclusions: this study validates a computer-based alternative to the SDMT that can be used in clinics and beyond. It enables accurate recording of elements of cognition relevant in MS but offers additional metrics that may offer further value to clinicians and people with MS

The medical student

The Medical Student was published from 1888-1921 by the students of Boston University School of Medicine

Dinâmicas comunitárias em deslocados e não deslocados residentes em áreas de exclusão social em Barranquilla (Colômbia)

El sentido de comunidad, la participación y el empoderamiento permiten comprender el proceso de desplazamiento y reasentamiento en el contexto de recepción, así como las consecuencias derivadas de ambos fenómenos. Los objetivos de la investigación son a) evaluar los tres constructos mencionados, b) analizar la sinergia que existe entre estos y c) proponer estrategias para aumentar su capacidad de influencia en los procesos de toma de decisiones. Llevamos a cabo una investigación exploratoria y transversal con población desplazada (n=30) y no desplazada (n=32) en dos localidades de bajos ingresos en Barranquilla (Colombia). Existe retroalimentación positiva entre los procesos evaluados, aunque no se observan diferencias significativas entre el grupo de desplazados y el de no desplazados. La dimensión Pertenencia (sentido de comunidad) es la que mejor explica la varianza del empoderamiento y de la participación en ambos grupos. Presentamos iniciativas para reforzar el sentido de comunidad y facilitar el acceso a los recursos socio-comunitarios en población desplazada.The sense of community, participation and empowerment enable us to understand the process of displacement and resettlement in the context of reception, as well as the consequences of both phenomena. Our objectives are a) to assess the three constructs mentioned above, b) to analyze the synergy existing among them and c) to propose strategies for increasing their capacity to influence the decision-making processes. We carried out a cross-sectional exploratory study with displaced (n=30) and non-displaced (n=32) people in two low-income districts of Barranquilla (Colombia). There is positive feedback between the processes evaluated, although no significant differences are observed between the displaced and the non-displaced groups. The dimension of belonging (sense of community) is the one that best explains the variance of empowerment and participation in both groups. Finally, we present a set of initiatives to reinforce the sense of community and to facilitate access to the community’s social resources for the displaced population.O sentido de comunidade, a participação e o empoderamento permitem compreender o processo de deslocamento e reassentamento no contexto de recepção bem como as consequências derivadas de ambos os fenômenos. Os objetivos desta pesquisa são: a) avaliar os três construtos mencionados; b) analisar a sinergia que existe entre estes e c) propor estratégias para aumentar sua capacidade de influência nos processos de tomada de decisões. Realizamos uma pesquisa exploratória e transversal com população deslocada (n=30) e não deslocada (n=32) em duas localidades de baixa renda em Barranquilla (Colômbia). Existe retroalimentação positiva entre os processos avaliados, embora não se observem diferenças significativas entre o grupo de deslocados e o de não deslocados. A dimensão Pertencimento (sentido de comunidade) é a que melhor explica a variância do empoderamento e da participação em ambos os grupos. Apresentamos iniciativas para reforçar o sentido de comunidade e facilitar o acesso aos recursos sociocomunitários em população deslocada

Improving the diagnosis and treatment of urinary tract infection in young children in primary care:results from the ‘DUTY’ prospective diagnostic cohort study

PURPOSE Up to 50% of urinary tract infections (UTIs) in young children are missed in primary care. Urine culture is essential for diagnosis, but urine collection is often difficult. Our aim was to derive and internally validate a 2-step clinical rule using (1) symptoms and signs to select children for urine collection; and (2) symptoms, signs, and dipstick testing to guide antibiotic treatment. METHODS We recruited acutely unwell children aged under 5 years from 233 primary care sites across England and Wales. Index tests were parent-reported symptoms, clinician-reported signs, urine dipstick results, and clinician opinion of UTI likelihood (clinical diagnosis before dipstick and culture). The reference standard was microbiologically confirmed UTI cultured from a clean-catch urine sample. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve of coefficient-based (graded severity) and points-based (dichotomized) symptom/sign logistic regression models, and we then internally validated the AUROC using bootstrapping. RESULTS Three thousand thirty-six children provided urine samples, and culture results were available for 2,740 (90%). Of these results, 60 (2.2%) were positive: the clinical diagnosis was 46.6% sensitive, with an AUROC of 0.77. Previous UTI, increasing pain/crying on passing urine, increasingly smelly urine, absence of severe cough, increasing clinician impression of severe illness, abdominal tenderness on examination, and normal findings on ear examination were associated with UTI. The validated coefficient- and points-based model AUROCs were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, increasing to 0.90 and 0.90, respectively, by adding dipstick nitrites, leukocytes, and blood. CONCLUSIONS A clinical rule based on symptoms and signs is superior to clinician diagnosis and performs well for identifying young children for noninvasive urine sampling. Dipstick results add further diagnostic value for empiric antibiotic treatment