Evaluating the impact of flexible alcohol trading hours on violence: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: On November 24(th) 2005, the Government of England and Wales removed regulatory restrictions on the times at which licensed premises could sell alcohol. This study tests availability theory by treating the implementation of Licensing Act (2003) as a natural experiment in alcohol policy. METHODS: An interrupted time series design was employed to estimate the Act's immediate and delayed impact on violence in the City of Manchester (Population 464,200). We collected police recorded rates of violence, robbery, and total crime between the 1st of February 2004 and the 31st of December 2007. Events were aggregated by week, yielding a total of 204 observations (95 pre-, and 109 post-intervention). Secondary analysis examined changes in daily patterns of violence. Pre- and post-intervention events were separated into four three-hour segments 18∶00-20∶59, 21∶00-23.59, 00∶00-02∶59, 03∶00-05∶59. RESULTS: Analysis found no evidence that the Licensing Act (2003) affected the overall volume of violence. However, analyses of night-time violence found a gradual and permanent shift of weekend violence into later parts of the night. The results estimated an initial increase of 27.5% between 03∶00 to 06∶00 (ω = 0.2433, 95% CI = 0.06, 0.42), which increased to 36% by the end of the study period (δ = -0.897, 95% CI = -1.02, -0.77). CONCLUSIONS: This study found no evidence that a national policy increasing the physical availability of alcohol affected the overall volume of violence. There was, however, evidence suggesting that the policy may be associated with changes to patterns of violence in the early morning (3 a.m. to 6 a.m.)

Astrometry with the Keck-Interferometer: the ASTRA project and its science

The sensitivity and astrometry upgrade ASTRA of the Keck Interferometer is introduced. After a brief overview of the underlying interferometric principles, the technology and concepts of the upgrade are presented. The interferometric dual-field technology of ASTRA will provide the KI with the means to observe two objects simultaneously, and measure the distance between them with a precision eventually better than 100 uas. This astrometric functionality of ASTRA will add a unique observing tool to fields of astrophysical research as diverse as exo-planetary kinematics, binary astrometry, and the investigation of stars accelerated by the massive black hole in the center of the Milky Way as discussed in this contribution.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures (low resolution), contribution to the summerschool "Astrometry and Imaging with the Very Large Telescope Interferometer", 2 - 13 June, 2008, Keszthely, Hungary, corrected authorlis

First faint dual-field phase-referenced observations on the Keck interferometer

Ground-based long baseline interferometers have long been limited in sensitivity by the short integration periods imposed by atmospheric turbulence. The first observation fainter than this limit was performed on January 22, 2011 when the Keck Interferometer observed a K=11.5 target, about one magnitude fainter than its K=10.3 limit. This observation was made possible by the Dual Field Phase Referencing instrument of the ASTRA project: simultaneously measuring the real-time effects of the atmosphere on a nearby bright guide star, and correcting for it on the faint target, integration time longer than the turbulence time scale are made possible. As a prelude to this demonstration, we first present the implementation of Dual Field Phase Referencing on the interferometer. We then detail its on-sky performance focusing on the accuracy of the turbulence correction, and on the resulting fringe contrast stability. We conclude with a presentation of early results obtained with Laser Guide Star AO and the interferometer.Comment: 10 pages, 12 figures, Proc. SPIE 201

First Light LBT AO Images of HR 8799 bcde at 1.65 and 3.3 Microns: New Discrepancies between Young Planets and Old Brown Dwarfs

As the only directly imaged multiple planet system, HR 8799 provides a unique opportunity to study the physical properties of several planets in parallel. In this paper, we image all four of the HR 8799 planets at H-band and 3.3 microns with the new LBT adaptive optics system, PISCES, and LBTI/LMIRCam. Our images offer an unprecedented view of the system, allowing us to obtain H and 3.3$ micron photometry of the innermost planet (for the first time) and put strong upper-limits on the presence of a hypothetical fifth companion. We find that all four planets are unexpectedly bright at 3.3 microns compared to the equilibrium chemistry models used for field brown dwarfs, which predict that planets should be faint at 3.3 microns due to CH4 opacity. We attempt to model the planets with thick-cloudy, non-equilibrium chemistry atmospheres, but find that removing CH4 to fit the 3.3 micron photometry increases the predicted L' (3.8 microns) flux enough that it is inconsistent with observations. In an effort to fit the SED of the HR 8799 planets, we construct mixtures of cloudy atmospheres, which are intended to represent planets covered by clouds of varying opacity. In this scenario, regions with low opacity look hot and bright, while regions with high opacity look faint, similar to the patchy cloud structures on Jupiter and L/T transition brown-dwarfs. Our mixed cloud models reproduce all of the available data, but self-consistent models are still necessary to demonstrate their viability.Comment: Accepted to Ap

Planet Hunters NGTS: New Planet Candidates from a Citizen Science Search of the Next Generation Transit Survey Public Data

We present the results from the first two years of the Planet Hunters Next Generation Transit Survey (NGTS) citizen science project, which searches for transiting planet candidates in data from the NGTS by enlisting the help of members of the general public. Over 8000 registered volunteers reviewed 138,198 light curves from the NGTS Public Data Releases 1 and 2. We utilize a user weighting scheme to combine the classifications of multiple users to identify the most promising planet candidates not initially discovered by the NGTS team. We highlight the five most interesting planet candidates detected through this search, which are all candidate short-period giant planets. This includes the TIC-165227846 system that, if confirmed, would be the lowest-mass star to host a close-in giant planet. We assess the detection efficiency of the project by determining the number of confirmed planets from the NASA Exoplanet Archive and TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs) successfully recovered by this search and find that 74% of confirmed planets and 63% of TOIs detected by NGTS are recovered by the Planet Hunters NGTS project. The identification of new planet candidates shows that the citizen science approach can provide a complementary method to the detection of exoplanets with ground-based surveys such as NGTS

Betelgeuse scope: Single-mode-fibers-assisted optical interferometer design for dedicated stellar activity monitoring

This is the final version. Available from SPIE via the DOI in this recordBetelgeuse has experienced a sudden shift in its brightness and dimmed mysteriously. This is likely caused by a hot blob of plasma ejected from Betelgeuse and then cooled to obscuring dust. If true, it is a remarkable opportunity to directly witness the formation of dust around a red supergiant star. Today's optical telescope facilities are not optimized for monitoring the Betelgeuse surface, so in this work, we propose a low-cost optical interferometer. The facility will consist of 12 x 4 inch optical telescopes mounted to the surface of a large radio dish for model-independent aperture synthesis imaging; polarization-maintaining single-mode fibers will carry the coherent beams from the individual optical telescopes to an all-in-one beam combiner. A fast steering mirror assisted fiber injection system guides the flux into fibers. A metrology system senses vibration-induced piston errors in optical fibers, and these errors are corrected using fast-steering delay lines. We will present the design.Steward Observatory Fellowship in Instrumentation and Technology Development

Validation of TOI-1221 b: A warm sub-Neptune exhibiting TTVs around a Sun-like star

We present a validation of the long-period ($91.68278^{+0.00032}_{-0.00041}$ days) transiting sub-Neptune planet TOI-1221 b (TIC 349095149.01) around a Sun-like (m$_{\rm V}$=10.5) star. This is one of the few known exoplanets with period >50 days, and belongs to the even smaller subset of which have bright enough hosts for detailed spectroscopic follow-up. We combine TESS light curves and ground-based time-series photometry from PEST (0.3~m) and LCOGT (1.0~m) to analyze the transit signals and rule out nearby stars as potential false positive sources. High-contrast imaging from SOAR and Gemini/Zorro rule out nearby stellar contaminants. Reconnaissance spectroscopy from CHIRON sets a planetary scale upper mass limit on the transiting object (1.1 and 3.5 M$_{\rm Jup}$ at 1$\sigma$ and 3$\sigma$, respectively) and shows no sign of a spectroscopic binary companion. We determine a planetary radius of $R_{\rm p} = 2.91^{+0.13}_{-0.12} R_{\oplus}$, placing it in the sub-Neptune regime. With a stellar insolation of $S = 6.06^{+0.85}_{-0.77}\ S_{\oplus}$, we calculate a moderate equilibrium temperature of $T_{\rm eq} =$ 440 K, assuming no albedo and perfect heat redistribution. We find a false positive probability from TRICERATOPS of FPP $= 0.0014 \pm 0.0003$ as well as other qualitative and quantitative evidence to support the statistical validation of TOI-1221 b. We find significant evidence (>$5\sigma$) of oscillatory transit timing variations, likely indicative of an additional non-transiting planet.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, 4 table

Disk and Envelope Structure in Class 0 Protostars: II. High Resolution Millimeter Mapping of the Serpens Sample

We present high-resolution CARMA 230 GHz continuum imaging of nine deeply embedded protostars in the Serpens Molecular Cloud, including six of the nine known Class 0 protostars in Serpens. This work is part of a program to characterize disk and envelope properties for a complete sample of Class 0 protostars in nearby low-mass star forming regions. Here we present CARMA maps and visibility amplitudes as a function of uv-distance for the Serpens sample. Observations are made in the B, C, D, and E antenna configurations, with B configuration observations utilizing the CARMA Paired Antenna Calibration System. Combining data from multiple configurations provides excellent uv-coverage (4-500 klam), allowing us to trace spatial scales from 1e2 to 1e4 AU. We find evidence for compact disk components in all of the observed Class 0 protostars, suggesting that disks form at very early times (t<0.2 Myr) in Serpens. We make a first estimate of disk masses using the flux at 50 klam, where the contribution from the envelope should be negligible, assuming an unresolved disk. The resulting disk masses range from 0.04 Msun to 1.7 Msun, with a mean of approximately 0.2 Msun. Our high resolution maps are also sensitive to binary or multiple sources with separations > 250 AU, but significant evidence of multiplicity on scales <2000 AU is seen in only one source.Comment: Accepted to the Astrophysical Journal Supplement