Assessment of the limitations on the seismic detectability of injected CO2 within a deep geological reservoir

Aquistore is a deep saline CO2 storage research and demonstration project located near Estevan, Saskatchewan where CO2 is transported via pipeline and injected into a sandstone reservoir ∼3200 m below the surface. A pre-injection time-lapse analysis performed on two sparse 3D seismic datasets was used to characterise the background time-lapse signal-to-noise level at the storage site. The time-lapse analysis revealed that the lowest global nRMS was 0.07 which was taken to represent the level above which CO2 would be detectable in the reservoir. We investigate the conditions under which the injected CO2 can be detected above the defined minimum noise level through Gassmann fluid substitution and 3D seismic forward modelling. Additionally, Wave Unix was used to simulate the seismic response of the reservoir due to the injected CO2 by generating the synthetic surface reflection seismic data from an explosive surface P-wave source. We generated noise-free synthetic seismograms for the baseline model as well as for the 2-phase fluid replacement of brine with CO2 for CO2 concentrations up to 100% within the target zone – the monitors. The baseline and monitor traces from the 3D seismic survey at Aquistore are used as the noise traces in this study, and were added to their respective baseline and monitor synthetic traces. The nRMS within the reservoir was then computed for the noisy baseline and various noisy monitor surveys and was used in the assessment of the limitation to the detection of the injected CO2 in the reservoir under the background noise level at the site. We are able to conclude that the time-lapse repeatability will not limit the ability to monitor the CO2 induced changes in the reservoir at the Aquistore storage site

Initial 4D seismic results after CO 2 injection start-up at the Aquistore storage site

The first post-CO2-injection 3D time-lapse seismic survey was conducted at the Aquistore CO2 storage site in February 2016 using the same permanent array of buried geophones used for acquisition of three previous pre-CO2-injection surveys from March 2012 to November 2013. By February 2016, 36 kilotons of CO2 have been injected within the reservoir between 3170 and 3370 m depth. We have developed time-lapse results from analysis of the first post-CO2-injection data and three pre-CO2-injection data sets. The objective of our analysis was to evaluate the ability of the permanent array to detect the injected CO2. A “4D-friendly simultaneous” processing flow was applied to the data in an effort to maximize the repeatability between the pre- and post-CO2-injection volumes while optimizing the final subsurface image including the reservoir. Excellent repeatability was achieved among all surveys with global normalized root-mean-square (Gnrms) values of 1.13–1.19 for the raw prestack data relative to the baseline data, which decreased during processing to Gnrms values of approximately 0.10 for the final crossequalized migrated data volumes. A zone of high normalized root-mean-square (nrms) values (0.11–0.25 as compared with background values of 0.05–0.10) is identified within the upper Deadwood unit of the storage reservoir, which likely corresponds to approximately 18 kilotons of CO2. No significant nrms anomalies are observed within the other reservoir units due to a combination of reduced seismic sensitivity, higher background nrms values, and/or small quantities of CO2 residing within these zones

Epidemiology and long-term clinical and biologic risk factors for pneumonia in community-dwelling older Americans analysis of three cohorts

Preventing pneumonia requires better understanding of incidence, mortality, and long-term clinical and biologic risk factors, particularly in younger individuals

Does accreditation stimulate change? A study of the impact of the accreditation process on Canadian healthcare organizations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>One way to improve quality and safety in healthcare organizations (HCOs) is through accreditation. Accreditation is a rigorous external evaluation process that comprises self-assessment against a given set of standards, an on-site survey followed by a report with or without recommendations, and the award or refusal of accreditation status. This study evaluates how the accreditation process helps introduce organizational changes that enhance the quality and safety of care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used an embedded multiple case study design to explore organizational characteristics and identify changes linked to the accreditation process. We employed a theoretical framework to analyze various elements and for each case, we interviewed top managers, conducted focus groups with staff directly involved in the accreditation process, and analyzed self-assessment reports, accreditation reports and other case-related documents.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The context in which accreditation took place, including the organizational context, influenced the type of change dynamics that occurred in HCOs. Furthermore, while accreditation itself was not necessarily the element that initiated change, the accreditation process was a highly effective tool for (i) accelerating integration and stimulating a spirit of cooperation in newly merged HCOs; (ii) helping to introduce continuous quality improvement programs to newly accredited or not-yet-accredited organizations; (iii) creating new leadership for quality improvement initiatives; (iv) increasing social capital by giving staff the opportunity to develop relationships; and (v) fostering links between HCOs and other stakeholders. The study also found that HCOs' motivation to introduce accreditation-related changes dwindled over time.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We conclude that the accreditation process is an effective leitmotiv for the introduction of change but is nonetheless subject to a learning cycle and a learning curve. Institutions invest greatly to conform to the first accreditation visit and reap the greatest benefits in the next three accreditation cycles (3 to 10 years after initial accreditation). After 10 years, however, institutions begin to find accreditation less challenging. To maximize the benefits of the accreditation process, HCOs and accrediting bodies must seek ways to take full advantage of each stage of the accreditation process over time.</p

The COVID-19 Vaccine Communication Handbook. A practical guide for improving vaccine communication and fighting misinformation

This handbook is for journalists, doctors, nurses, policy makers, researchers, teachers, students, parents – in short, it’s for everyone who wants to know more about the COVID-19 vaccines, how to talk to others about them, how to challenge misinformation about the vaccines. This handbook is self-contained but additionally provides access to a “wiki” of more detailed information

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.]

Alcohol consumption and prostate cancer incidence and progression: A Mendelian randomisation study.

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men in developed countries, and is a target for risk reduction strategies. The effects of alcohol consumption on prostate cancer incidence and survival remain unclear, potentially due to methodological limitations of observational studies. In this study, we investigated the associations of genetic variants in alcohol-metabolising genes with prostate cancer incidence and survival. We analysed data from 23,868 men with prostate cancer and 23,051 controls from 25 studies within the international PRACTICAL Consortium. Study-specific associations of 68 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 8 alcohol-metabolising genes (Alcohol Dehydrogenases (ADHs) and Aldehyde Dehydrogenases (ALDHs)) with prostate cancer diagnosis and prostate cancer-specific mortality, by grade, were assessed using logistic and Cox regression models, respectively. The data across the 25 studies were meta-analysed using fixed-effect and random-effects models. We found little evidence that variants in alcohol metabolising genes were associated with prostate cancer diagnosis. Four variants in two genes exceeded the multiple testing threshold for associations with prostate cancer mortality in fixed-effect meta-analyses. SNPs within ALDH1A2 associated with prostate cancer mortality were rs1441817 (fixed effects hazard ratio, HRfixed  = 0.78; 95% confidence interval (95%CI):0.66,0.91; p values = 0.002); rs12910509, HRfixed  = 0.76; 95%CI:0.64,0.91; p values = 0.003); and rs8041922 (HRfixed  = 0.76; 95%CI:0.64,0.91; p values = 0.002). These SNPs were in linkage disequilibrium with each other. In ALDH1B1, rs10973794 (HRfixed  = 1.43; 95%CI:1.14,1.79; p values = 0.002) was associated with prostate cancer mortality in men with low-grade prostate cancer. These results suggest that alcohol consumption is unlikely to affect prostate cancer incidence, but it may influence disease progression.This work was supported by a Cancer Research UK (C18281/A19169) programme grant to RMM and Caroline Relton (Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme). LZ was funded by a UK MRC Special Training Fellowship (G0501864/76656) and a UK MRC Population Health Scientist fellowship [grant number G0902144]. LZ and NMD work in a unit that receives funding from the UK MRC [G0600705] and the University of Bristol (MC_UU _12013/1,9). The CRUK study and the PRACTICAL consortium were supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme grant agreement number 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175); Cancer Research UK Grants C5047/A7357, C1287/A10118, C5047/A3354, C5047/A1069 2, C16913/A6135; and the National Institute of Health (NIH) Cancer Post-Cancer GWAS initiative grant: No. 1 U19 CA 148537-01 (the GAME-ON initiative). Funding for the iCOGS infrastructure came from: the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement n° 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009- 223175) (COGS), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A 10710, C12292/A11174, C1281/A12014, C5047/A8384, C5047/A15 007, C5047/A10692), the National Institutes of Health (CA128978) and Post-Cancer GWAS initiative (1U19 CA148537, 1U19 CA148065 and 1U19 CA148112 - the GAME-ON initiative), the Department of Defence (W81XWH-10-1-0341), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer, Komen Foundation for the Cure, the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund. The ProtecT study is funded by the U.K. Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme of the NIH Research (HTA 96/20/99; ISRCTN 20141297). The authors thank the provision of the additional epidemiological data by the NHS R&D Directorate supported Prodigal study and the ProMPT (Prostate Mechanisms of Progression and Treatment) collaboration which is supported by the National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) formed by the Department of Health, the Medical Research Council and Cancer Research UK (G0500966/75466). RAE and ZKJ are supported by Cancer Research UK Grant C5047/A7357 and the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust. RMM was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Bristol Nutrition Biomedical Research Unit based at University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Bristol. FCH, DEN and JLD are NIHR Senior Investigators.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijc.3043

Analysis of fracture induced scattering of microseismic shear-waves

Fractures are pervasive features within the Earth’s crust and have a significant influence on the multi-physical response of the subsurface. The presence of coherent fracture sets often leads to observable seismic scattering enabling seismic techniques to remotely locate and characterise fracture systems. In this study, we confirm the general scale-dependence of seismic scattering and provide new results specific to shear-wave propagation. We do this by generating full waveform synthetics using finite-difference wave simulation within an isotropic background model containing explicit fractures. By considering a suite of fracture models having variable fracture density and fracture size, we examine the widening effect of wavelets due to scattering within a fractured medium by using several different approaches, such as root-mean-square envelope analysis, shear-wave polarisation distortion, differential attenuation analysis and peak frequency shifting. The analysis allows us to assess the scattering behavior of parametrised models in which the propagation direction is either normal or parallel to the fracture surfaces. The quantitative measures show strong observable deviations for fractures size on the order of or greater than the dominant seismic wavelength within the Mie and geometric scattering regime for both propagation normal and parallel to fracture strike. The results suggest that strong scattering is symptomatic of fractures having size on the same order of the probing seismic wave

Microseismic Full Waveform Modeling in Anisotropic Media with Moment Tensor Implementation

Seismic anisotropy which is common in shale and fractured rocks will cause travel-time and amplitude discrepancy in different propagation directions. For microseismic monitoring which is often implemented in shale or fractured rocks, seismic anisotropy needs to be carefully accounted for in source location and mechanism determination. We have developed an efficient finite-difference full waveform modeling tool with an arbitrary moment tensor source. The modeling tool is suitable for simulating wave propagation in anisotropic media for microseismic monitoring. As both dislocation and non-double-couple source are often observed in microseismic monitoring, an arbitrary moment tensor source is implemented in our forward modeling tool. The increments of shear stress are equally distributed on the staggered grid to implement an accurate and symmetric moment tensor source. Our modeling tool provides an efficient way to obtain the Green’s function in anisotropic media, which is the key of anisotropic moment tensor inversion and source mechanism characterization in microseismic monitoring. In our research, wavefields in anisotropic media have been carefully simulated and analyzed in both surface array and downhole array. The variation characteristics of travel-time and amplitude of direct P- and S-wave in vertical transverse isotropic media and horizontal transverse isotropic media are distinct, thus providing a feasible way to distinguish and identify the anisotropic type of the subsurface. Analyzing the travel-times and amplitudes of the microseismic data is a feasible way to estimate the orientation and density of the induced cracks in hydraulic fracturing. Our anisotropic modeling tool can be used to generate and analyze microseismic full wavefield with full moment tensor source in anisotropic media, which can help promote the anisotropic interpretation and inversion of field data

Evidence synthesis to inform model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of diagnostic tests: a methodological systematic review of health technology assessments

Background: Evaluations of diagnostic tests are challenging because of the indirect nature of their impact on patient outcomes. Model-based health economic evaluations of tests allow different types of evidence from various sources to be incorporated and enable cost-effectiveness estimates to be made beyond the duration of available study data. To parameterize a health-economic model fully, all the ways a test impacts on patient health must be quantified, including but not limited to diagnostic test accuracy. Methods: We assessed all UK NIHR HTA reports published May 2009-July 2015. Reports were included if they evaluated a diagnostic test, included a model-based health economic evaluation and included a systematic review and meta-analysis of test accuracy. From each eligible report we extracted information on the following topics: 1) what evidence aside from test accuracy was searched for and synthesised, 2) which methods were used to synthesise test accuracy evidence and how did the results inform the economic model, 3) how/whether threshold effects were explored, 4) how the potential dependency between multiple tests in a pathway was accounted for, and 5) for evaluations of tests targeted at the primary care setting, how evidence from differing healthcare settings was incorporated. Results: The bivariate or HSROC model was implemented in 20/22 reports that met all inclusion criteria. Test accuracy data for health economic modelling was obtained from meta-analyses completely in four reports, partially in fourteen reports and not at all in four reports. Only 2/7 reports that used a quantitative test gave clear threshold recommendations. All 22 reports explored the effect of uncertainty in accuracy parameters but most of those that used multiple tests did not allow for dependence between test results. 7/22 tests were potentially suitable for primary care but the majority found limited evidence on test accuracy in primary care settings. Conclusions: The uptake of appropriate meta-analysis methods for synthesising evidence on diagnostic test accuracy in UK NIHR HTAs has improved in recent years. Future research should focus on other evidence requirements for cost-effectiveness assessment, threshold effects for quantitative tests and the impact of multiple diagnostic tests