Application of the Adjusted Weak Axiom of Profit Maximization to New Zealand Dairy Farming

The weak axiom of profit maximization is a nonparametric, empirical approach that has been used in the United States to analyze dairy farmers’ production and profit behavior under input and output price changes to determine whether farmers effectively respond to these changes. The expectation is that profit calculated using the current year’s input and output combination will be greater than that calculated from the previous year’s combination with current prices more often than due to chance. This approach was replicated using New Zealand dairy farm data (1,785 pairs of records over five years). Current year’s profits were significantly greater in two of the years and less in two years and in total. New Zealand’s pasture-based systems mean that this approach has limitations in evaluating farmers’ input and output decisions in response to price changes. Factors such as climatic impacts on pasture availability (a volatile input not included in the data set), and hence purchased feed requirements, affected the results. Farmer responses to costs and prices were not readily differentiated from other factors that affected input decisions or output. Results were interpreted with respect to climate, production, and income and cost changes, both nationally and regionally, with some interesting observations on farmer responses to variability

Prevalence of age-related macular degeneration in the Republic of Ireland

Abstract Background Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) remains the most common cause of visual loss among subjects over 50 years of age in the developed world. The Irish Longitudinal study on Ageing (TILDA) is a population-based study of subjects aged 50 years or older, designed to investigate factors that influence ageing, and has enabled this investigation of the prevalence of AMD in the Republic of Ireland (ROI). Methods Data collected from a nationally representative sample of community-living older adults aged 50 years and over in ROI over the period November 2009 to July 2011. 5035 participants attended the TILDA health centre for assessment. Retinal photographs were obtained in 4859 of these participants. Retinal grading was performed in a masked fashion using a modified version of the International Classification and Grading System for AMD. Results Adjusting for lower response rates among older subjects, the estimated overall prevalence of any AMD was 7.2% (95% CI 6.5% to 7.9%) in the population aged 50 years or older. The estimated prevalence of early AMD was 6.6% (95% CI 5.9% to 7.3%), and the estimated prevalence of late AMD was 0.6% (95% CI 0.4% to 0.8%). Statistically significant associations with AMD included increasing age and family history of the condition. Conclusions This is the first study to provide prevalence estimates of AMD in ROI and will inform eye care professionals and policymakers involved in the delivery and planning of care for those afflicted with this condition

TGF-β1 and TGF-β2 abundance in liver diseases of mice and men

TGF-β1 is a major player in chronic liver diseases promoting fibrogenesis and tumorigenesis through various mechanisms. The expression and function of TGF-β2 have not been investigated thoroughly in liver disease to date. In this paper, we provide evidence that TGF-β2 expression correlates with fibrogenesis and liver cancer development. Using quantitative realtime PCR and ELISA, we show that TGF-β2 mRNA expression and secretion increased in murine HSCs and hepatocytes over time in culture and were found in the human-derived HSC cell line LX-2. TGF-β2 stimulation of the LX-2 cells led to upregulation of the TGF-β receptors 1, 2, and 3, whereas TGF-β1 treatment did not alter or decrease their expression. In liver regeneration and fibrosis upon CCl4 challenge, the transient increase of TGF-β2 expression was accompanied by TGF-β1 and collagen expression. In bile duct ligation-induced fibrosis, TGF-β2 upregulation correlated with fibrotic markers and was more prominent than TGF-β1 expression. Accordingly, MDR2-KO mice showed significant TGF-β2 upregulation within 3 to 15 months but minor TGF-β1 expression changes. In 5 of 8 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)/hepatoblastoma cell lines, relatively high TGF-β2 expression and secretion were observed, with some cell lines even secreting more TGF-β2 than TGF-β1. TGF-β2 was also upregulated in tumors of TGFα/cMyc and DEN-treated mice. The analysis of publically available microarray data of 13 human HCC collectives revealed considerable upregulation of TGF-β2 as compared to normal liver. Our study demonstrates upregulation of TGF-β2 in liver disease and suggests TGF-β2 as a promising therapeutic target for tackling fibrosis and HCC

Understanding Dwarf Galaxies in order to Understand Dark Matter

Much progress has been made in recent years by the galaxy simulation community in making realistic galaxies, mostly by more accurately capturing the effects of baryons on the structural evolution of dark matter halos at high resolutions. This progress has altered theoretical expectations for galaxy evolution within a Cold Dark Matter (CDM) model, reconciling many earlier discrepancies between theory and observations. Despite this reconciliation, CDM may not be an accurate model for our Universe. Much more work must be done to understand the predictions for galaxy formation within alternative dark matter models.Comment: Refereed contribution to the Proceedings of the Simons Symposium on Illuminating Dark Matter, to be published by Springe

Toward Earlier Inclusion of Pregnant and Postpartum Women in Tuberculosis Drug Trials: Consensus Statements From an International Expert Panel

Tuberculosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in women of childbearing age (15–44 years). Despite increased tuberculosis risk during pregnancy, optimal clinical treatment remains unclear: safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetic data for many tuberculosis drugs are lacking, and trials of promising new tuberculosis drugs exclude pregnant women. To advance inclusion of pregnant and postpartum women in tuberculosis drug trials, the US National Institutes of Health convened an international expert panel. Discussions generated consensus statements (>75% agreement among panelists) identifying high-priority research areas during pregnancy, including: (1) preventing progression of latent tuberculosis infection, especially in women coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus; (2) evaluating new agents/regimens for treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; and (3) evaluating safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics of tuberculosis drugs already in use during pregnancy and postpartum. Incorporating pregnant women into clinical trials would extend evidence-based tuberculosis prevention and treatment standards to this special population

Does transition from an unstable labour market position to permanent employment protect mental health? Results from a 14-year follow-up of school-leavers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Having secure employment, in contrast to being unemployed, is regarded as an important determinant of health. Research and theories about the negative health consequences of unemployment indicated that transition from unemployment to a paid job could lead to improved health. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that obtaining permanent employment after being in an unstable labour market position protects mental health.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A 14-year follow-up of all graduates from compulsory school in an industrial town in northern Sweden was performed at ages 16, 18, 21 and 30 years. Complete data on the cohort were collected for 1044 individuals with the aid of a comprehensive questionnaire. The response rate was 96.4%. The health measurement used in this study was the psychological symptoms analysed by multivariate logistic regression. Those who obtained permanent employment were the focus of the analysis. This group consisted of people who were in an unstable labour market position for a year or more between the ages of 25 and 29, and who had acquired a permanent job one year before and at the time of the investigation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After controlling for gender as well as for an indicator of health-related selection, possible confounders and mediators, an association was found between the lower probability of psychological symptoms and obtaining permanent employment (OR = 0.35, 95% CI 0.19–0.63) as well as having permanent employment (OR = 0.22, 95% CI 0.10–0.51).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest that transition from an unstable labour market position to permanent employment could be health-promoting, even after controlling for possible confounders and mediators, as well as for an indicator of health-related selection. However, as there are few studies in the field, there is a need for more longitudinal studies in order to further analyse the relationship and to examine possible explanations. The policy implication of our study is that the transformation of unstable labour market positions into permanent employment could contribute to better public health.</p

Study of Flare Assessment in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Based on Paper Patients.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the level of agreement of disease flare severity (distinguishing severe, moderate, and mild flare and persistent disease activity) in a large paper-patient exercise involving 988 individual cases of systemic lupus erythematosus. METHODS: A total of 988 individual lupus case histories were assessed by 3 individual physicians. Complete agreement about the degree of flare (or persistent disease activity) was obtained in 451 cases (46%), and these provided the reference standard for the second part of the study. This component used 3 flare activity instruments (the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group [BILAG] 2004, Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment [SELENA] flare index [SFI] and the revised SELENA flare index [rSFI]). The 451 patient case histories were distributed to 18 pairs of physicians, carefully randomized in a manner designed to ensure a fair case mix and equal distribution of flare according to severity. RESULTS: The 3-physician assessment of flare matched the level of flare using the 3 indices, with 67% for BILAG 2004, 72% for SFI, and 70% for rSFI. The corresponding weighted kappa coefficients for each instrument were 0.82, 0.59, and 0.74, respectively. We undertook a detailed analysis of the discrepant cases and several factors emerged, including a tendency to score moderate flares as severe and persistent activity as flare, especially when the SFI and rSFI instruments were used. Overscoring was also driven by scoring treatment change as flare, even if there were no new or worsening clinical features. CONCLUSION: Given the complexity of assessing lupus flare, we were encouraged by the overall results reported. However, the problem of capturing lupus flare accurately is not completely solved

Nipple aspiration and ductal lavage in women with a germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to collect serial samples of nipple aspirate (NA) and ductal lavage (DL) fluid from women with germline BRCA1/2 mutations in order to create a biorepository for use in identifying biomarkers of breast cancer risk. METHODS: Between March 2003 and February 2005, 52 women with germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations (median age 43 years, range 27 to 65 years) were scheduled for six-monthly NA, DL and venesection. DL was attempted for all NA fluid-yielding (FY) and any non-FY ducts that could be located at each visit. RESULTS: Twenty-seven (52%) women were postmenopausal, predominantly (19/27) from risk reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (BSO). FY ducts were identified in 60% of all women, 76% of premenopausal women versus 44% of postmenopausal (P = 0.026). Eighty-five percent of women had successful DL. Success was most likely in women with FY ducts (FY 94% versus non-FY 71% (P = 0.049). DL samples were more likely to be cellular if collected from FY ducts (FY 68% versus non-FY 43%; P = 0.037). Total cell counts were associated with FY status (FY median cell count 30,996, range 0 to >1,000,000 versus non-FY median cell count 0, range 0 to 173,577; P = 0.002). Four women (8%) had ducts with severe atypia with or without additional ducts with mild epithelial atypia; seven others had ducts with mild atypia alone (11/52 (21%) in total). Median total cell count was greater from ducts with atypia (105,870, range 1920 to >1,000,000) than those with no atypia (174, 0 to >1,000,000; P ≤ 0.001). CONCLUSION: It is feasible to collect serial NA and DL samples from women at high genetic risk of breast cancer, and we are creating a unique, prospective collection of ductal samples that have the potential to be used for discovery of biomarkers of breast cancer risk and evaluate the ongoing effects of risk reducing BSO. DL cellular atypia was not predictive of a current breast cancer and longer follow up is needed to determine whether atypia is an additional marker of future breast cancer risk in this population already at high genetic risk of breast cancer