Identification of dynamical transitions in marine palaeoclimate records by recurrence network analysis

The analysis of palaeoclimate time series is usually affected by severe methodological problems, resulting primarily from non-equidistant sampling and uncertain age models. As an alternative to existing methods of time series analysis, in this paper we argue that the statistical properties of recurrence networks - a recently developed approach - are promising candidates for characterising the system's nonlinear dynamics and quantifying structural changes in its reconstructed phase space as time evolves. In a first order approximation, the results of recurrence network analysis are invariant to changes in the age model and are not directly affected by non-equidistant sampling of the data. Specifically, we investigate the behaviour of recurrence network measures for both paradigmatic model systems with non-stationary parameters and four marine records of long-term palaeoclimate variations. We show that the obtained results are qualitatively robust under changes of the relevant parameters of our method, including detrending, size of the running window used for analysis, and embedding delay. We demonstrate that recurrence network analysis is able to detect relevant regime shifts in synthetic data as well as in problematic geoscientific time series. This suggests its application as a general exploratory tool of time series analysis complementing existing methods

High thymidylate synthase gene expression predicts poor outcome after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma.

IntroductionPrognosis after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is highly variable. Compared to clinicopathologic factors, the use of molecular markers to predict outcome has not been well studied. We investigated the prognostic importance of thymidylate synthase (TS) gene expression and polymorphisms in patients after resection of HCC.MethodsPatients who underwent complete resection of HCC for whom tissue was available were identified. TS gene expression level and polymorphisms were determined in HCC specimens. Prognostic factors were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models.ResultsThe study included 67 patients. In univariate analysis, variables that negatively influenced survival included TNM stage, microvascular invasion, and high TS expression. For the high TS expression group, median survival was 54 months and 5-year actuarial survival was 47%. For the low TS expression group, median survival was not reached and the 5-year actuarial survival was 91%. In multivariate analysis, only high TS expression remained an independent predictor of poor survival (HR = 10.77, 95% CI 1.36-84.91; P = 0.02). TS gene polymorphisms were not associated with TS expression or overall survival.ConclusionsHigh TS expression predicts poor outcome after resection of HCC. Molecular markers might be robust predictors of patient outcome after resection of HCC

The dynamics of spiral arms in pure stellar disks

It has been believed that spirals in pure stellar disks, especially the ones spontaneously formed, decay in several galactic rotations due to the increase of stellar velocity dispersions. Therefore, some cooling mechanism, for example dissipational effects of the interstellar medium, was assumed to be necessary to keep the spiral arms. Here we show that stellar disks can maintain spiral features for several tens of rotations without the help of cooling, using a series of high-resolution three-dimensional $N$-body simulations of pure stellar disks. We found that if the number of particles is sufficiently large, e.g., $3\times 10^6$, multi-arm spirals developed in an isolated disk can survive for more than 10 Gyrs. We confirmed that there is a self-regulating mechanism that maintains the amplitude of the spiral arms. Spiral arms increase Toomre's $Q$ of the disk, and the heating rate correlates with the squared amplitude of the spirals. Since the amplitude itself is limited by the value of $Q$, this makes the dynamical heating less effective in the later phase of evolution. A simple analytical argument suggests that the heating is caused by gravitational scattering of stars by spiral arms, and that the self-regulating mechanism in pure-stellar disks can effectively maintain spiral arms on a cosmological timescale. In the case of a smaller number of particles, e.g., $3\times 10^5$, spiral arms grow faster in the beginning of the simulation (while $Q$ is small) and they cause a rapid increase of $Q$. As a result, the spiral arms become faint in several Gyrs.Comment: 18 pages, 19 figures, accepted for Ap

Physical Properties of Tidal Features in Interacting Disk Galaxies

We explore tidal interactions of a galactic disk with Toomre parameter Q ~ 2 embedded in rigid halo/bulge with a point mass companion moving in a prescribed parabolic orbit. Tidal interactions produce well-defined spiral arms and extended tidal features such as bridge and tail that are all transient, but distinct in nature. In the extended disks, strong tidal force is able to lock the perturbed epicycle phases of the near-side particles to the perturber, shaping them into a tidal bridge that corotates with the perturber. A tidal tail develops at the opposite side as strongly-perturbed, near-side particles overtake mildly-perturbed, far-side particles. The tail is essentially a narrow material arm with a roughly logarithmic shape, dissolving with time because of large velocity dispersions. Inside the disks where tidal force is relatively weak, on the other hand, a two-armed logarithmic spiral pattern emerges due to the kinematic alignment of perturbed particle orbits. While self-gravity makes the spiral arms a bit stronger, the arms never become fully self-gravitating, wind up progressively with time, and decay after the peak almost exponentially in a time scale of ~ 1 Gyr. The arm pattern speed varying with both radius and time converges to Omega-kappa/2 at late time, suggesting that the pattern speed of tidally-driven arms may depend on radius in real galaxies. We present the parametric dependences of various properties of tidal features on the tidal strength, and discuss our findings in application to tidal spiral arms in grand-design spiral galaxies. (Abridged)Comment: 49 pages, 17 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal. PDF version with higher resolution figures is available at http://astro.snu.ac.kr/~shoh/research/publications/astroph/Tidally_Induced_Spiral_Structure.pd

On the Origin of Nuclear Star Clusters in Late Type Spiral Galaxies

A large fraction of bulgeless disk galaxies contain young compact stellar systems at their centers, in spite of the local gravitational stability of these disks. We evaluate two contrasting hypotheses for the origin of the nuclear star clusters in late-type disk galaxies. The clusters could not have migrated from distant eccentric locations in the disk. Instead they must have formed in situ, requiring radial transport of gas toward the center of the disk. This transport could be a consequence of the development of the magnetorotational instability in the differentially rotating warm neutral medium. We evaluate the rate of gas transport into the disk center and find that it is sufficient to support continuous star formation in that location. Enhanced stellar surface brightness in the inner few hundred parsecs and the formation of a compact stellar system in the central few parsecs are unavoidable in dark matter halos with divergent density profiles. We illustrate our conclusions on a model of the nearest late-type disk galaxy M33.Comment: 4 pages, ApJ Letters, in pres

Atomic Hydrogen and Star Formation in the Bridge/Ring Interacting Galaxy Pair NGC 7714/7715 (Arp 284)

We present high spatial resolution 21 cm HI maps of the interacting galaxy pair NGC 7714/7715. We detect a massive (2 x 10**9 M(sun)) HI bridge connecting the galaxies that is parallel to but offset from the stellar bridge. A chain of HII regions traces the gaseous bridge, with H-alpha peaks near but not on the HI maxima. An HI tidal tail is also detected to the east of the smaller galaxy NGC 7715, similarly offset from a stellar tail. The strong partial stellar ring on the eastern side of NGC 7714 has no HI counterpart, but on the opposite side of NGC 7714 there is a 10**9 M(sun) HI loop 11 kpc in radius. Within the NGC 7714 disk, clumpy HI gas is observed associated with star formation regions. Redshifted HI absorption is detected towards the starburst nucleus. We compare the observed morphology and gas kinematics with gas dynamical models in which a low-mass companion has an off-center prograde collision with the outer disk of a larger galaxy. These simulations suggest that the bridge in NGC 7714/7715 is a hybrid between bridges seen in systems like M51 and the purely gaseous `splash' bridges found in ring galaxies like the Cartwheel. The offset between the stars and gas in the bridge may be due to dissipative cloud-cloud collisions occuring during the impact of the two gaseous disks.Comment: 31 pages, Latex, 11 figures, to be published in the July 10, 1997 issue of the Astrophysical Journa

Flicker sensitivity as a function of the spectral density of external white temporal noise

Foveal flicker sensitivity at 0.5–30 Hz was measured as a function of the spectral density of external, white, purely temporal noise for a sharp-edged 2.5 deg circular spot (mean luminance 3.4 log phot td). Sensitivity at any given temporal frequency was constant at low powers of external noise, but then decreased in inverse proportion to the square root of noise spectral density. Without external noise, sensitivity as function of temporal frequency had the well-known band-pass characteristics peaking at about 10 Hz, as previously documented in a large number of studies. In the presence of strong external noise, however, sensitivity was a monotonically decreasing function of temporal frequency. Our data are well described (goodness of fit 90%) by a model comprising (i) low-pass filtering by retinal cones, (ii) high-pass filtering in the subsequent neural pathways, (iii) adding of the temporal equivalent of internal white spatiotemporal noise, and (iv) detection by a temporal matched filter, the efficiency of which decreases approximately as the power −0.58 of temporal frequency

Rhythmic dynamics and synchronization via dimensionality reduction : application to human gait

Reliable characterization of locomotor dynamics of human walking is vital to understanding the neuromuscular control of human locomotion and disease diagnosis. However, the inherent oscillation and ubiquity of noise in such non-strictly periodic signals pose great challenges to current methodologies. To this end, we exploit the state-of-the-art technology in pattern recognition and, specifically, dimensionality reduction techniques, and propose to reconstruct and characterize the dynamics accurately on the cycle scale of the signal. This is achieved by deriving a low-dimensional representation of the cycles through global optimization, which effectively preserves the topology of the cycles that are embedded in a high-dimensional Euclidian space. Our approach demonstrates a clear advantage in capturing the intrinsic dynamics and probing the subtle synchronization patterns from uni/bivariate oscillatory signals over traditional methods. Application to human gait data for healthy subjects and diabetics reveals a significant difference in the dynamics of ankle movements and ankle-knee coordination, but not in knee movements. These results indicate that the impaired sensory feedback from the feet due to diabetes does not influence the knee movement in general, and that normal human walking is not critically dependent on the feedback from the peripheral nervous system

Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

Abstract. The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5–7.9, 5.7–5.0, 4.1–3.7, and 3.0–2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0–1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies