Global Seismic Nowcasting With Shannon Information Entropy.

Seismic nowcasting uses counts of small earthquakes as proxy data to estimate the current dynamical state of an earthquake fault system. The result is an earthquake potential score that characterizes the current state of progress of a defined geographic region through its nominal earthquake "cycle." The count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake is the natural time that has elapsed since the last large earthquake (Varotsos et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.74.021123). In addition to natural time, earthquake sequences can also be analyzed using Shannon information entropy ("information"), an idea that was pioneered by Shannon (1948, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x). As a first step to add seismic information entropy into the nowcasting method, we incorporate magnitude information into the natural time counts by using event self-information. We find in this first application of seismic information entropy that the earthquake potential score values are similar to the values using only natural time. However, other characteristics of earthquake sequences, including the interevent time intervals, or the departure of higher magnitude events from the magnitude-frequency scaling line, may contain additional information

Systematic procedural and sensitivity analysis of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large (M > 5) earthquake events in southern California

Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and deducing information about future space-time fluctuations from the phase angle of the state vector. While the success rate of this Pattern Informatics (PI) method has been encouraging, the method is still in its infancy. Procedural analysis, statistical testing, parameter sensitivity investigation and optimization all still need to be performed. In this paper, we attempt to optimize the PI approach by developing quantitative values for "predictive goodness" and analyzing possible variations in the proposed procedure. In addition, we attempt to quantify the systematic dependence on the quality of the input catalog of historic data and develop methods for combining catalogs from regions of different seismic rates.Comment: 39 pages, 4 tables, 9 figures. Submitted to Pure and Applied Geophysics on 30 November 200

Exploring resilience in adult daughter and spousal carers of people living with dementia in North West England: an ecological approach

Purpose Research has shown that informal carers of people living with dementia (PLWD) can be resilient in the face of caregiving challenges. However, little is known about resilience across different kinship ties. This study aims to update and build on our previous work, using an ecological resilience framework to identify and explore the factors that facilitate or hinder resilience across spousal and adult daughter carers of PLWD. Design/methodology/approach This study conducted in-depth qualitative interviews with a purposive sample of 13 carers from North West England and analysed the data using a constructivist grounded theory approach (Charmaz, 2003). Findings Adult daughters were motivated to care out of reciprocity, whereas spouses were motivated to care out of marital duty. Spouses had a more positive and accepting attitude towards caregiving and were better able to maintain continuity, which facilitated their resilience. Research limitations/implications Resilience emerged on multiple levels and depended on the type of kinship tie, which supports an ecological approach to resilience. The implications of these findings are discussed. Originality/value This paper makes a novel contribution to the literature as it uses an in-depth qualitative methodology to compare resilience across spousal and adult daughter carers of PLWD. This study adopts an ecological approach to identify not just individual-level resilience resources but also interactive community- and societal-level resources. </jats:sec

Breastfeeding initiation and support: A literature review of what women value and the impact of early discharge

© 2016 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd.Problem Early discharge following birth has become an emerging phenomenon in many countries. It is likely early discharge has an impact on the establishment of breastfeeding. Objective To critically appraise the evidence on what women value in relation to breastfeeding initiation and support, and investigate the impact early discharge can have on these values. Method A literature search was conducted for publications since 2005 using the following databases: Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Medline, Scopus and PsycINFO; 21 primary articles were selected and included in the review. Findings There is no standard definition for ‘early discharge’ worldwide. Due to inconsistent definitions worldwide and minimal literature using a 24 h definition, research defining early discharge as up to 72 h postpartum is included. Seven key factors in relation to breastfeeding initiation and support following early discharge were identified, namely trust and security, consistent advice, practical breastfeeding support, breastfeeding education, comfortable environment, positive attitudes and emotional support, and individualised care. Conclusion The findings suggest individualised postnatal lengths of stay may be beneficial for the initiation of breastfeeding. Five values were not impacted by early discharge, but rather individual midwives’ practice. There is consensus in the literature that early discharge promoted a comfortable environment to support breastfeeding initiation. Wide variations in the definition of early postnatal discharge made it difficult to draw influential conclusions. Therefore, further research is required

Space-Time Clustering and Correlations of Major Earthquakes

Earthquake occurrence in nature is thought to result from correlated elastic stresses, leading to clustering in space and time. We show that occurrence of major earthquakes in California correlates with time intervals when fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to PR

Exploring Resilience in UK-Based Domiciliary Care Workers before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Domiciliary carers (DCs) provide an invaluable service that enables people living with dementia (PLWD) to remain living in their own homes for as long as possible. We know a lot about the negative impacts of providing domiciliary care and recent evidence suggests that this was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, we know much less about how these DCs manage the stressors associated with their roles. The current study adopts a resilience perspective to identify the resources that DCs caring for PLWD draw on to manage the stress associated with their roles before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 19 DCs from across the UK. Data were analysed using a directed qualitative content analysis. Themes included: healthy boundaries; motivation to care; psychological attributes; managing work; and support. The findings have implications for employers and may go some way towards improving DC working conditions, retaining staff, and attracting new DCs in the future

Resilience and post‐traumatic growth in the transition to motherhood during the COVID ‐19 pandemic: A qualitative exploratory study

Most perinatal research relating to COVID‐19 focuses on its negative impact on maternal and parental mental health. Currently, there are limited data on how to optimise positive health during the pandemic. We aimed to bridge this knowledge gap by exploring how women have adapted to becoming a new parent during the pandemic and to identify elements of resilience and growth within their narratives. Mothers of infants under the age of 4 months were recruited as part of a wider UK mixed‐methods study. Semi‐structured interviews with 20 mothers elicited data about how COVID‐19 had influenced their transition to parent a new infant, and if and how they adapted during the pandemic, what strategies they used, and if and how these had been effective. Directed qualitative content analysis was undertaken, and pre‐existing theoretical frameworks of resilience and post‐traumatic growth (PTG) were used to analyse and interpret the data set. The findings show evidence of a range of resilience and PTG concepts experienced during the pandemic in this cohort. Salient resilience themes included personal (active coping, reflective functioning, and meaning‐making), relational (social support, partner relationships, and family relationships), and contextual (health and social connectedness) factors. There was also evidence of PTG in terms of the potential for new work‐related and leisure opportunities, and women developing wider and more meaningful connections with others. Although further research is needed, and with individuals from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds, these findings emphasise the significance of social support and connectivity as vital to positive mental health. Opportunities to increase digital innovations to connect and support new parents should be maximised to buffer the negative impacts of further social distancing and crisis situations

First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) XI: [OIII] emitting galaxies at 5<z<105<z<10

JWST has now made it possible to probe the rest-frame optical line emission of high-redshift galaxies extending to z~9, and potentially beyond. To aid in the interpretation of these emerging constraints, in this work we explore predictions for [OIII] emission in high-redshift galaxies using the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES). We produce predictions for the [OIII] luminosity function, its correlation with the UV luminosity, and the distribution of equivalent widths (EWs). We also explore how the [OIII] EW correlates with physical properties including specific star formation rate, metallicity, and dust attenuation. Our predictions are largely consistent with recent observational constraints on the luminosity function, average equivalent widths, and line ratios. However, they fail to reproduce the observed tail of high-EW sources and the number density of extreme line emitters. Possibilities to explain these discrepancies include an additional source of ionising photons and/or greater stochasticity in star formation in the model or photometric scatter and/or bias in the observations. With JWST now rapidly building larger samples and a wider range of emission lines the answer to this remaining discrepancy should be available imminently.Comment: 15 pages, accepted for publication in MNRAS, minor changes from original versio