SOME EXPERIENCE OF AN GIANG PROVINCE IN THE PROCESS OF IMPLEMENTING INDUSTRIALIZATION AND MODERNIZATION OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL AREAS IN THE PERIOD 2010-2020

Industrialization and modernization of agriculture and rural areas play especial importance to agricultural development, building new rural areas, and improving farmers’ lives. Vietnam has a starting point from the backward agricultural economics, wants to build a modern developed economy. So, it is necessary to carry out industrialization and modernization of agriculture and rural areas. This article focuses on researching the actual situation of implementing industrialization and modernization of agriculture and rural areas in An Giang province, Vietnam, period 2010-2020. Then, learning some lessons from experience in the process of industrialization and modernization of agriculture and rural areas in the localities, contributing to supplementing documents, theoretical and practical bases for this process in the next period. Article visualizations

THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF VIETNAM

This study examines the asymmetric effects of Exchange Rate Volatility (ERV) on Vietnam’s international trade. Using time-series data fitted to the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, we find that positive changes in ERV have a negative impact on the trade balance in the short-run. On the other hand,increases in ERV have a positive impact on the trade balance in the long-run. We also find that negative changes in ERV do not have any significant effect on the trade balance

Factors affecting the decision to choose a university of high school students: A study in An Giang Province, Vietnam

It is important to provide high school students with the necessary information for them to consult and make a decision to choose a university. The study aims to identify and evaluate the influence of factors in the decision to choose a university for high school students. The questionnaire survey method was used to collect data from 393 students from eight high schools in An Giang Province, Vietnam. Exploratory factor analysis and linear regression were used to analyze the data. The research results show that students are quite satisfied and quite certain with their decision to choose a university, while there are six important factors affecting the decision to choose a university. Influential factors with decreasing order of magnitude are: i) Factors consulted by teachers, family, friends, and relatives; ii) Factors of future job opportunities; iii) Factors of media activities; iv) Factors of learning conditions; v) Factors of university reputation; vi) Factors belong to the students themselves. The findings of the study show that there is no statistically significant difference between the group of males and females, between grades 10, 11, and 12. Besides, there is a statistically significant difference between students in high schools. The findings of this study have theoretical and practical implications for university admissions in Vietnam. Proposals made to university administrators were discussed. From the research results, we want to help students find the right university, and support universities to improve the efficiency of admissions

EFFECTS OF SALT STRESS ON PLANT GROWTH AND BIOMASS ALLOCATION IN SOME WETLAND GRASS SPECIES IN THE MEKONG DELTA

Salt stress causes serious damage to many cellular and physiological processes that leads to yield reduction. The study induced salt stress using Hoagland solution added NaCl to evaluate its effects on plant growth and biomass allocation of some wetland grass species in order to identify salt-tolerant species for replacing and/or supplementing rice/grass in rice-shrimp model and salt-affected area in the Mekong Delta. The study also seeks to evaluate the response of leaf chlorophyll (SPAD unit) and proline content in salt-treated plants to varying application of salinity. Typha orientalis, Lepironia articulata, Eleocharis dulcis and Scirpus littoralis were studied in hydroponics condition with four levels of NaCl of 5, 10, 15, 20‰ and the control treatment (without adding NaCl). The experiment was arranged in a completely randomized design with 3 replications. The salt-treated plants showed visually clear responses of inhibited growth under salt stress condition compared to the control plants. Among the four studied species, T. orientalis produced the highest dry shoot biomass (15.5 g DW/plant), while E. dulcis had the lowest value (2.8 g DW/plant). However, only T. orientalis showed significantly decreased in biomass as salinity increased with 9.3 and 4.6 times lower of fresh and dry biomass in plants grown at the salinity level of 20‰ compared to those grown in the control treatment. The other three plant species did not affect by salinity levels. The results indicated that S. littoralis, L. articulata and E. dulcis could tolerate at high salinity of 20‰ (eq. to the EC value in the nutrient solution of 38.0 dS/m) and could be potential candidate to grow in the rice-shrimp model or in the salt-affected soils. 

Clinical evaluation of AI-assisted muscle ultrasound for monitoring muscle wasting in ICU patients

Muscle ultrasound has been shown to be a valid and safe imaging modality to assess muscle wasting in critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). This typically involves manual delineation to measure the rectus femoris cross-sectional area (RFCSA), which is a subjective, time-consuming, and laborious task that requires significant expertise. We aimed to develop and evaluate an AI tool that performs automated recognition and measurement of RFCSA to support non-expert operators in measurement of the RFCSA using muscle ultrasound. Twenty patients were recruited between Feb 2023 and July 2023 and were randomized sequentially to operators using AI (n = 10) or non-AI (n = 10). Muscle loss during ICU stay was similar for both methods: 26 ± 15% for AI and 23 ± 11% for the non-AI, respectively (p = 0.13). In total 59 ultrasound examinations were carried out (30 without AI and 29 with AI). When assisted by our AI tool, the operators showed less variability between measurements with higher intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs 0.999 95% CI 0.998–0.999 vs. 0.982 95% CI 0.962–0.993) and lower Bland Altman limits of agreement (± 1.9% vs. ± 6.6%) compared to not using the AI tool. The time spent on scans reduced significantly from a median of 19.6 min (IQR 16.9–21.7) to 9.4 min (IQR 7.2–11.7) compared to when using the AI tool (p < 0.001). AI-assisted muscle ultrasound removes the need for manual tracing, increases reproducibility and saves time. This system may aid monitoring muscle size in ICU patients assisting rehabilitation programmes

Evaluation of awake prone positioning effectiveness in moderate to severe COVID-19

Evidence mainly from high income countries suggests that lying in the prone position may be beneficial in patients with COVID-19 even if they are not receiving invasive ventilation. Studies indicate that increased duration of prone position may be associated with improved outcomes, but achieving this requires additional staff time and resources. Our study aims to support prolonged (≥ 8hours/day) awake prone positioning in patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 disease in Vietnam. We use a specialist team to support prone positioning of patients and wearable devices to assist monitoring vital signs and prone position and an electronic data registry to capture routine clinical data

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic