Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

This paper describes the use of the idea of natural time to propose a new method for characterizing the seismic risk to the world's major cities at risk of earthquakes. Rather than focus on forecasting, which is the computation of probabilities of future events, we define the term seismic nowcasting, which is the computation of the current state of seismic hazard in a defined geographic region.Comment: 9 Figures, 4 Table

Seasonal climate forecasts for more effective raingrown grain-cotton production systems

Cropping is a risky business. Our highly variable climate makes it difficult to decide how best to manage crops and cropping systems. What works well one year might not work well the next. To develop better risk management practices, this project uses the APSIM cropping systems model to examine the profitability and sustainability of a range of alternative dryland cotton/grain cropping systems throughout the northern grain region of eastern Australia. It involves working closely with farmer collaborators in Central Queensland, the Darling Downs, the northwest slopes of NSW and the Liverpool Plains

Global Seismic Nowcasting With Shannon Information Entropy.

Seismic nowcasting uses counts of small earthquakes as proxy data to estimate the current dynamical state of an earthquake fault system. The result is an earthquake potential score that characterizes the current state of progress of a defined geographic region through its nominal earthquake "cycle." The count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake is the natural time that has elapsed since the last large earthquake (Varotsos et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.74.021123). In addition to natural time, earthquake sequences can also be analyzed using Shannon information entropy ("information"), an idea that was pioneered by Shannon (1948, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x). As a first step to add seismic information entropy into the nowcasting method, we incorporate magnitude information into the natural time counts by using event self-information. We find in this first application of seismic information entropy that the earthquake potential score values are similar to the values using only natural time. However, other characteristics of earthquake sequences, including the interevent time intervals, or the departure of higher magnitude events from the magnitude-frequency scaling line, may contain additional information

The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a large-scale atmospheric phenomenon that is generated above the tropical Indian Ocean. It is associated with large convective systems that propagate eastward across the Pacific Ocean. Since it is an atmospheric event limited to the equatorial domain, it was believed that it has little effect on non-tropical regions. However, recent research found correlations between the positioning of the active Madden Julian Oscillation phase along the Equator and rainfall events northeast Australia. The correlations were significant throughout Queensland. The phenomenon is subject to a study by climate scientists at four Australian institutions. It aims to develop a simple predictive tool of rainfall events that are linked with the active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation and that is applicable throughout Queensland and possible beyond. The outcome of this research is to be linked with agricultural production systems model in order to help Queensland farmers to better time planting and harvesting, as well as scheduling of contractors whose operations might be delayed by rain

Quantitative response of Alexandrium catenella cyst dormancy to cold exposure

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2018. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Protist 169 (2018): 645-661, doi:10.1016/j.protis.2018.06.001.Many dinoflagellate cysts experience dormancy, a reversible state that prevents germination during unfavorable periods. Several of these species also cause harmful algal blooms (HABs), so a quantitative understanding of dormancy cycling is desired for better prediction and mitigation of bloom impacts. This study examines the effect of cold exposure on the duration of dormancy in Alexandrium catenella, a HAB dinoflagellate that causes paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP). Mature, dormant cysts from Nauset Marsh (Cape Cod, MA USA) were stored at low but above freezing temperatures for up to six months. Dormancy status was then determined at regular intervals using a germination assay. Dormancy timing was variable among temperatures and was shorter in colder treatments, but the differences collapse when temperature and duration of storage are scaled by chilling-units (CU), a common horticultural predictor of plant and insect development in response to weather. Cysts within Nauset meet a well-defined chilling requirement by late January, after which they are poised to germinate with the onset of favorable conditions in spring. Cysts thus modulate their dormancy cycles in response to their temperature history, enhancing the potential for new blooms and improving this species’ adaptability to both unseasonable weather and new habitats/climate regimes.This work was supported by the National Science Foundation [OCE-0430724, OCE-0911031]; the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences [1P50-ES01274201, 1P01ES021923]; the National Park Service Cooperative Agreement [H238015504]; and the Friends of Cape Cod National Seashore

Methodology comparison for canopy structure parameters extraction from digital hemispherical photography in boreal forests

The retrieval of canopy architectural parameters using off-the-shelf digital cameras with fish-eye lens is investigated. The technique used takes advantage of the sensor’s linear response to light of these cameras to improve the estimation of gap fraction using: (1) the digital numbers of mixed sky-canopy pixels to estimate the within-pixel gap fraction; and (2) this process is done considering the variation in view zenith angle to take into account the sky radiance distribution and the canopy multiple scattering effects. The foliage element clumping index is retrieved over a wide range of view zenith angles using: (1) the accumulated gap size distribution theory developed for the TRAC by Chen and Cihlar (1995a); (2) the Lang and Xiang (1986) finite-length averaging method; and (3) a method combining the gap size distribution and the Lang and Xiang finite-length methods. Using data from Canadian and Russian boreal forests, comparisons of gap fraction, clumping index and plant area index measured with the tracing radiation and architecture of canopies (TRAC) and digital hemispherical photography are presented. Evaluation of the LAI estimated from digital hemispherical photography with allometric LAI of two boreal forest stands suggest that that the clumping index combined method may be more accurate

Assessment of Pharmacist Attitudes Regarding Introductory Pharmacy Practice Experience Hours

Introductory pharmacy practice experience (IPPE) hours are a means of integrating experiential education as a key role early on in pharmacy education. The Accreditation Council for Pharmacy Education (ACPE) has offered little guidance on mandatory and specific objectives to accomplish during IPPE hours, thus it is possible that preceptors do not feel adequately prepared, nor do they have a full understanding of what is required of them when they agree to precept an IPPE student. Given the lack of previous research conducted, the objective of this study was to obtain an understanding of the general attitude that preceptors have toward IPPE hours. A self-administered Internet-based questionnaire was completed by 100 respondents. The survey included multiple choice, Likert-type scale (1 =strongly disagree to 7 =strongly agree), sliding scale, and open-ended questions assessing preceptor\u27s knowledge of academic IPPE hour requirements, college of pharmacy expectations, time commitment and work site issues, expectations of the student, formality of IPPE hours, personal experience as a preceptor, an open-ended response and demographic information. Upon analyzing the data, researchers found that respondents presented with a generally positive attitude regarding IPPE hours (5.79 ± 1.03). Respondents expressed a desire to receive a zero to two hour online preceptor training (5.17 ± 1.25). In general, pharmacists indicated sufficient staffing to accommodate IPPE students (3.92 ± 1.38) and were undecided regarding monetary reimbursement (4.39 ± 1.53). Survey participants preferred receiving a guided checklist of activities for completion (S.45 ± 1.27), student resume (5.19 ± 1.30) and previous didactic course work (S.33 ± 1.41); however, survey participants expressed a desire for flexibility in determining the specifics of the experience (5.41 ± 1.11) while having students complete hours in a more concentrated time frame (5.19 ± 1.44). This exploratory research project was conducted to serve as baseline data to stimulate further investigation regarding IPPE hours

Estimating spring terminus submarine melt rates at a greenlandic tidewater glacier using satellite imagery

Oceanic forcing of the Greenland Ice Sheet is believed to promote widespread thinning at tidewater glaciers, with submarine melting proposed as a potential trigger of increased glacier calving, retreat, and subsequent acceleration. The precise mechanism(s) driving glacier instability, however, remain poorly understood, and while increasing evidence points to the importance of submarine melting, estimates of melt rates are uncertain. Here we estimate submarine melt rate by examining freeboard changes in the seasonal ice tongue of Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS) at the head of Kangersuneq Fjord (KF), southwest Greenland. We calculate melt rates for March and May 2013 by differencing along-fjord surface elevation, derived from high-resolution TanDEM-X digital elevation models (DEMs), in combination with ice velocities derived from offset tracking applied to TerraSAR-X imagery. Estimated steady state melt rates reach up to 1.4 ± 0.5m d-1 near the glacier grounding line, with mean values of up to 0.8 ± 0.3 and 0.7 ± 0.3m d-1 for the eastern and western parts of the ice tongue, respectively. Melt rates decrease with distance from the ice front and vary across the fjord. This methodology reveals spatio-temporal variations in submarine melt rates (SMRs) at tidewater glaciers which develop floating termini, and can be used to improve our understanding of ice-ocean interactions and submarine melting in glacial fjords.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The Effects Of Water Utility Pricing On Low Income Consumers

This study reviews ten water utilities in Florida utilizing current pricing models to determine how municipal utilities approach affordability.  Water is no longer a commodity that can be taken for granted as the effects on the family budget has risen considerably in the past couple of decades. Increasing costs in capital, debt, personnel, chemicals, retrieval, and production have dramatically increased the price of water.  Municipalities are faced with diminishing resources, escalating costs, and the need to consider those less fortunate when determining utility pricing.  This research reviews programs available to utilities to offset the effect on capital requirements if municipalities adapt a low income friendly pricing model.  Ten Florida municipalities are examined utilizing data from the 2012 Water and Wastewater Rate Study conducted for the American Water Works Association.   Additionally, affordability programs for all ten municipalities are reviewed.

Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems

The overall aim of this project is to significantly improve financial profitability, economic efficiency and resource risk management of dryland grain/cotton systems through effective use of seasonal climate forecasts and quantification of climatic variability