Individual Risk Attitudes: New Evidence from a Large, Representative, Experimentally-Validated Survey

This paper presents new evidence on the distribution of risk attitudes in the population, using a novel set of survey questions and a representative sample of roughly 22,000 individuals living in Germany. Using a question that asks about willingness to take risks on an 11-point scale, we find evidence of heterogeneity across individuals, and show that willingness to take risks is negatively related to age and being female, and positively related to height and parental education. We test the behavioral relevance of this survey measure by conducting a complementary field experiment, based on a representative sample of 450 subjects, and find that the measure is a good predictor of actual risk-taking behavior. We then use a more standard lottery question to measure risk preference, and find similar results regarding heterogeneity and determinants of risk preferences. The lottery question makes it possible to estimate the coefficient of relative risk aversion for each individual in the sample. Using five questions about willingness to take risks in specific domains - car driving, financial matters, sports and leisure, career, and health - the paper also studies the impact of context on risk attitudes, finding a strong but imperfect correlation across contexts. Using data on a collection of risky behaviors from different contexts, including traffic offenses, portfolio choice, smoking, occupational choice, participation in sports, and migration, the paper compares the predictive power of all of the risk measures. Strikingly, the general risk question predicts all behaviors whereas the standard lottery measure does not. The best overall predictor for any specific behavior is typically the corresponding context-specific measure. These findings call into the question the current preoccupation with lottery measures of risk preference, and point to variation in risk perceptions as an understudied determinant of risky behavior.Risk preferences; Preference stability; Experimental validation; Field experiment; SOEP; Gender differences; Age; Height; Subjective well-being

Individual Risk Attitudes: Measurement, Determinants and Behavioral Consequences

This paper studies risk attitudes using a large representative survey and a complementary experiment conducted with a representative subject pool in subjects'' homes. Using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks "in general", we find that gender, age, height, and parental background have an economically significant impact on willingness to take risks. The experiment confirms the behavioral validity of this measure, using paid lottery choices. Turning to other questions about risk attitudes in specific contexts, we find similar results on the determinants of risk attitudes, and also shed light on the deeper question of stability of risk attitudes across contexts. We conduct a horse race of the ability of different measures to explain risky behaviors such as holdings stocks, occupational choice, and smoking. The question about risk-taking in general generates the best all-around predictor of risky behavior.Economics ;

How people know their risk preference

People differ in their willingness to take risks. Recent work found that revealed preference tasks (e.g., laboratory lotteries)—a dominant class of measures—are outperformed by survey-based stated preferences, which are more stable and predict real-world risk taking across different domains. How can stated preferences, often criticised as inconsequential “cheap talk,” be more valid and predictive than controlled, incentivized lotteries? In our multimethod study, over 3,000 respondents from population samples answered a single widely used and predictive risk-preference question. Respondents then explained the reasoning behind their answer. They tended to recount diagnostic behaviours and experiences, focusing on voluntary, consequential acts and experiences from which they seemed to infer their risk preference. We found that third-party readers of respondents’ brief memories and explanations reached similar inferences about respondents’ preferences, indicating the intersubjective validity of this information. Our results help unpack the self perception behind stated risk preferences that permits people to draw upon their own understanding of what constitutes diagnostic behaviours and experiences, as revealed in high-stakes situations in the real world

Polar localization of plasma membrane Ca2+/Mg2+ ATPase correlates with the pattern of steady ionic currents in eggs of Lymnaea stagnalis and Bithynia tentaculata (Mollusca)

During extrusion of the first polar body in eggs of Lymnaea stagnalis and Bithynia tentaculata a localized Ca2+ /Mg2+ ATPase activity was detected, using Ando's enzyme-cytochemical method for electron microscopy [Ando et al. (1981) Acta Histochem Cytochem 14:705-726]. The enzyme activity was distributed in a polar fashion, along the cytoplasmic face of the plasma membrane. In the eggs of Lymnaea it was found only in the vegetal hemisphere, whereas in Bithynia eggs it was localized both in the vegetal hemisphere and at the animal pole. This pattern of enzyme activity corresponds to the polar pattern of transcellular ionic currents measured with the vibrating probe, which we showed to be partially carried or regulated by calcium [Zivkovic and Dohmen (1989) Biol Bull (Woods Hole) 176 (Suppl):103-109]. The characteristics of the ATPase were studied using a variety of approaches such as ion and substrate depletions and substitutions, addition of specific inhibitors of ATPase activity, treatment with EDTA/EGTA and electron energy-loss spectrometry. The results indicate that, in Lymnaea, there are at least two enzymatic entities. The first one is a Ca2+ /Mg2+ ATPase localized along the membrane and in the cortex of the vegetal hemisphere. The second one is a Ca2+-stimulated ATPase (calcium pump of the plasma membrane) localized in a small region of the membrane at the vegetal pole. We speculate that in the eggs of Lymnaea and Bithynia a functional relationship exists between the plasma-membrane-associated ATPase activity and the transcellular ionic currents measured in the same region

Suspension by regular and groupy waves over bedforms in a large wave flume (SISTEX99)

Suspended sand concentrations and bedforms under waves were measured in the controlled environment of a large wave flume. Three suspension conditions are discussed here; those occurring with regular (monochromatic) waves of height 0.55m over anorbital ripples, regular waves 1.0m high over orbital bedforms, and repeating wave groups (with a significant wave height of 0.6m) also over orbital-scale features. In all cases the wave-to-wave variability in suspended load was high (∼30%). Patterns of suspension were dependent on the bedform type and on instrument location relative to the bedform. Regular waves suspended an order of magnitude more sediment than groupy waves with a similar significant wave height illustrating,the importance of sequences of high waves in pumping-up sediment concentration into the water column

Observations of velocities, sand concentrations, and fluxes under velocity-asymmetric oscillatory flows

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