Living on the Edge: Assessing the Extinction Risk of Critically Endangered Bonelli’s Eagle in Italy

Background: The population of Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata) has declined drastically throughout its European range due to habitat degradation and unnatural elevated mortality. There are less than 1500 breeding pairs accounted for in Europe, and the species is currently catalogued as Critically Endangered in Italy, where the 22 territories of Sicily, represent nearly 95% of the entire Italian population. However, despite national and European conservation concerns, the species currently lacks a specific conservation plan, and no previous attempts to estimate the risk of extinction have been made. Methodology/Principal Findings: We incorporated the most updated demographic information available to assess the extinction risk of endangered Bonelli’s eagle in Italy through a Population Viability Analysis. Using perturbation analyses (sensitivity and elasticity), and a combination of demographic data obtained from an assortment of independent methods, we evaluated which demographic parameters have more influence on the population’s fate. We also simulated different scenarios to explore the effects of possible management actions. Our results showed that under the current conditions, Bonelli’s eagle is expected to become extinct in Italy in less than 50 years. Stand-alone juvenile mortality was the most critical demographic parameter with the strongest influence on population persistence with respect to other demographic parameters. Measures aimed at either decreasing juvenile mortality, adult mortality or decreasing both juvenile and adult mortality resulted in equivalent net positive effects on population persistence (population growth rate l.1). In contrast, changes aimed at increasing breeding success had limited positive effects on demographic trends. Conclusions/Significance: Our PVA provides essential information to direct the decision-making process and exposes gaps in our previous knowledge. To ensure the long-term persistence of the species in Italy, measures are urgently needed to decrease both adult mortality due to poaching and juvenile mortality due to nest plundering, the top ranking mortality causes.PLL is supported by a “Juan de la Cierva” postdoctoral grant of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (reference JCI-2011–09588)

Improvements in simulation tools to be developed within the framework of the ASTRID project

International audienceThe ASTRID design comprises innovative features compared to past designs. The simulation tools being very important to support the ASTRID design option selection and to assist a robust Safety demonstration, the CEA and its industrial partners have launched a large program for developing a new generation of simulation tools. Within the framework of the ASTRID project, the strategy for simulation is to continuously improve the simulation tools and their verification and validation (VetV). Furthermore, this new generation of tools is implemented for the basic design of ASTRID in compliance with the regulatory and schedule requirements. Several examples of computation tool developments in the fields of neutronics, fuel behavior, core mechanics, thermal-hydraulics and severe accident analyses are given. The VetV process, described here for the core studies, is also carried out for others domains by the industrial partners.The approach is closely linked to the realization of the RandD experimental programs, aimed to complete the existing experimental data base and so to validate the new model developments and to decrease the calculation uncertainties. The development program of new simulation tools is ambitious in order to meet the challenges which arise from the innovative design options implemented in ASTRID and for the will to comply with the objectives of the 4th generation reactors