The Retail FX Trader: Random Trading and the Negative Sum Game

With the internet boom of early 2000 making access to trading the Foreign Exchange (FX) market far simpler for members of the general public, the growth of 'retail' FX trading continues, with daily transaction volumes as high as $200 billion. Potential new entrants to the retail FX trading world may come from the recent UK pension deregulations, further increasing the volumes. The attraction of FX trading is that it offers high returns and whilst it has been understood that it is high-risk in nature, the rewards are seen as being commensurately high for the 'skilled and knowledgeable' trader who has an edge over other market participants. This paper analyses a number of independent sources of data and previous research, to examine the profitability of the Retail FX trader and compares the results with that of a simulated random trading models. This paper finds evidence to suggest that whilst approximately 20% of traders can expect to end up with a profitable account, around 40% might expect their account to be subject to a margin call. This paper finds a strong correlation between the overall profitability of traders and impact of the cost of the bid-ask spread, whilst finding little if any evidence that retail FX traders, when viewed as a group, are achieving results better than that from random trading

The Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of a Four-Month Regimen for First-Line Treatment of Active Tuberculosis in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: A 4-month first-line treatment regimen for tuberculosis disease (TB) is expected to have a direct impact on patient outcomes and societal costs, as well as an indirect impact on Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission. We aimed to estimate this combined impact in a high TB-burden country: South Africa. METHOD: An individual based M. tb transmission model was fitted to the TB burden of South Africa using a standard TB natural history framework. We measured the impact on TB burden from 2015-2035 of introduction of a non-inferior 4-month regimen replacing the standard 6-month regimen as first-line therapy. Impact was measured with respect to three separate baselines (Guidelines, Policy and Current), reflecting differences in adherence to TB and HIV treatment guidelines. Further scenario analyses considered the variation in treatment-related parameters and resistance levels. Impact was measured in terms of differences in TB burden and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) averted. We also examined the highest cost at which the new regimen would be cost-effective for several willingness-to-pay thresholds. RESULTS: It was estimated that a 4-month regimen would avert less than 1% of the predicted 6 million person years with TB disease in South Africa between 2015 and 2035. A similarly small impact was seen on deaths and DALYs averted. Despite this small impact, with the health systems and patient cost savings from regimen shortening, the 4-month regimen could be cost-effective at $436 [NA, 5983] (mean [range]) per month at a willingness-to-pay threshold of one GDP per capita ($6,618). CONCLUSION: The introduction of a non-inferior 4-month first-line TB regimen into South Africa would have little impact on the TB burden. However, under several scenarios, it is likely that the averted societal costs would make such a regimen cost-effective in South Africa

Alternative Splicing of Circadian Clock Genes Correlates With Temperature in Field-Grown Sugarcane

Alternative Splicing (AS) is a mechanism that generates different mature transcripts from precursor mRNAs (pre-mRNAs) of the same gene. In plants, a wide range of physiological and metabolic events are related to AS, as well as fast responses to changes in temperature. AS is present in around 60% of intron-containing genes in Arabidopsis, 46% in rice, and 38% in maize and it is widespread among the circadian clock genes. Little is known about how AS influences the circadian clock of C4 plants, like commercial sugarcane, a C4 crop with a complex hybrid genome. This work aims to test if the daily dynamics of AS forms of circadian clock genes are regulated by environmental factors, such as temperature, in the field. A systematic search for AS in five sugarcane clock genes, ScLHY, ScPRR37, ScPRR73, ScPRR95, and ScTOC1 using different organs of sugarcane sampled during winter, with 4 months old plants, and during summer, with 9 months old plants, revealed temperature- and organ-dependent expression of at least one alternatively spliced isoform in all genes. Expression of AS isoforms varied according to the season. Our results suggest that AS events in circadian clock genes are correlated with temperature.</p

A Review of Bondi--Hoyle--Lyttleton Accretion

If a point mass moves through a uniform gas cloud, at what rate does it accrete material? This is the question studied by Bondi, Hoyle and Lyttleton. This paper draws together the work performed in this area since the problem was first studied. Time has shown that, despite the simplifications made, Bondi, Hoyle and Lyttleton made quite accurate predictions for the accretion rate. Bondi--Hoyle--Lyttleton accretion has found application in many fields of astronomy, and these are also discussed.Comment: 25 pages Accepted by New Astronomy Reviews Revision corrects a rather important typo about timescales in the stability sectio

The lncRNA HOTAIR transcription is controlled by HNF4α-induced chromatin topology modulation

The expression of the long noncoding RNA HOTAIR (HOX Transcript Antisense Intergenic RNA) is largely deregulated in epithelial cancers and positively correlates with poor prognosis and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma and gastrointestinal cancers. Furthermore, functional studies revealed a pivotal role for HOTAIR in the epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition, as this RNA is causal for the repressive activity of the master factor SNAIL on epithelial genes. Despite the proven oncogenic role of HOTAIR, its transcriptional regulation is still poorly understood. Here hepatocyte nuclear factor 4-α (HNF4α), as inducer of epithelial differentiation, was demonstrated to directly repress HOTAIR transcription in the mesenchymal-to epithelial transition. Mechanistically, HNF4α was found to cause the release of a chromatin loop on HOTAIR regulatory elements thus exerting an enhancer-blocking activity

ZMYND10 functions in a chaperone relay during axonemal dynein assembly

Molecular chaperones promote the folding and macromolecular assembly of a diverse set of ‘client’ proteins. How ubiquitous chaperone machineries direct their activities towards specific sets of substrates is unclear. Through the use of mouse genetics, imaging and quantitative proteomics we uncover that ZMYND10 is a novel co-chaperone that confers specificity for the FKBP8-HSP90 chaperone complex towards axonemal dynein clients required for cilia motility. Loss of ZMYND10 perturbs the chaperoning of axonemal dynein heavy chains, triggering broader degradation of dynein motor subunits. We show that pharmacological inhibition of FKBP8 phenocopies dynein motor instability associated with the loss of ZMYND10 in airway cells and that human disease-causing variants of ZMYND10 disrupt its ability to act as an FKBP8-HSP90 co-chaperone. Our study indicates that primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD), caused by mutations in dynein assembly factors disrupting cytoplasmic pre-assembly of axonemal dynein motors, should be considered a cell-type specific protein-misfolding disease

A Core Outcome Set for the prevention and treatment of fetal GROwth restriction: deVeloping Endpoints: the COSGROVE study.

BACKGROUND: Fetal growth restriction refers to a fetus that does not reach its genetically predetermined growth potential. It is well-recognized that growth-restricted fetuses are at increased risk of both short- and long-term adverse outcomes. Systematic evaluation of the evidence from clinical trials of fetal growth restriction is often difficult because of variation in the outcomes that are measured and reported. The development of core outcome sets for fetal growth restriction studies would enable future trials to measure similar meaningful outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to develop core outcome sets for trials of prevention or treatment of fetal growth restriction. STUDY DESIGN: This was a Delphi consensus study. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify outcomes that were reported in studies of prevention or treatment of fetal growth restriction. All outcomes were presented for prioritization to key stakeholders (135 healthcare providers, 68 researchers/academics, and 35 members of the public) in 3 rounds of online Delphi surveys. A priori consensus criteria were used to reach agreement on the final outcomes for inclusion in the core outcome set at a face-to-face meeting with 5 healthcare providers, 5 researchers/academics, and 6 maternity service users. RESULTS: In total, 22 outcomes were included in the final core outcome set. These outcomes were grouped under 4 domains: maternal (n=4), fetal (n=1), neonatal (n=12), and childhood (n=5). CONCLUSION: The Core Outcome Set for the prevention and treatment of fetal GROwth restriction: deVeloping Endpoints study identified a large number of potentially relevant outcomes and then reached consensus on those factors that, as a minimum, should be measured and reported in all future trials of prevention or treatment of fetal growth restriction. This will enable future trials to measure similar meaningful outcomes and to ensure that findings from different studies can be compared and combined

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal