Regulating autonomous agents facing conflicting objectives : a command and control example

UK military commanders have a degree of devolved decision authority delegated from command and control (C2) regulators, and they are trained and expected to act rationally and accountably. Therefore from a Bayesian perspective they should be subjective expected utility maximizers. In fact they largely appear to be so. However when current tactical objectives conflict with broader campaign objective there is a strong risk that fielded commanders will lose rationality and coherence. By systematically analysing the geometry of their expected utilities, arising from a utility function with two attributes, we demonstrate in this paper that even when a remote C2 regulator can predict only the likely broad shape of her agents' marginal utility functions it is still often possible for her to identify robustly those settings where the commander is at risk of making inappropriate decisions

Techne and techniques for engaging in a socially complex world

This paper addresses the challenge for Operational Research (OR) in extending out from traditional forms of modelling towards a more relational form of modelling. The challenge comes from OR practice becoming more transformative in nature, which puts more emphasis on reflective practice, people and relationships. Staged Appreciation is proposed as an overall guiding framework and selected illustrative techniques are presented for engaging with social complexity; so-called “wicked” problems. Systems Thinking techniques, guided by Staged Appreciation add an insightful new dimension to knowledge sharing for understanding, and for reflecting upon the intricacies involved in socially complex situations. There are analytical advantages of standing apart from complexity. Staged Appreciation complements this analytical standpoint by asking analysts to take a more reflective view of their own working relationships, being more a part of the socially complex problem as well as standing apart from it. Staged Appreciation offers a reflective framework for working with Systems Thinking techniques and together they complement traditional practice. The proposal and suggestions aim to support analysts to adopt a more reflective and relational view of a complex problematic situation in order to see it “as a whole.” The paper draws lessons from holism, reflective practice and subjective analysis

Eliciting expert knowledge to inform training design

To determine the elicitation methodologies best placed to uncover and capture the expert operator’s reflective cognitive judgements in complex and dynamic military operating environments (e.g., explosive ordinance disposal) in order to develop the specification for a reflective eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) agent to support the training of domain novices. Approach: A bounded literature review of the latest developments in expert knowledge elicitation was undertaken to determine the ’art-of-the-possible’ in respects to uncovering an expert’s cognitive judgements in complex and dynamic environments. Candidate methodologies were systematically and critically reviewed in order to identify the most promising methodologies for uncovering expert situational awareness and metacognitive evaluations in pursuit of actionable threat mitigation strategies in high-risk contexts. Research outputs are synthesized into an interview protocol for eliciting and understanding the in-situ actions and decisions of experts in high-risk, complex operating environments. Practical implications: Trainees entering high-risk operating environments can benefit from exposure to expert reflective strategies whilst learning the trade. Typical operator training focuses on technical aspects of threat mitigation but often overlooks reflective self-evaluation. The present study represents an initial step towards determining the feasibility of designing a reflective XAI agent to augment the performance of trainees entering high-risk operations. Outputs of the expert knowledge elicitation protocol documented here shall be used to refine a theoretical framework of expert operator judgement, in order to determine decision support strategies of benefit to domain novices

A framework for systems thinking practice

Presentation slides ©Cranfield UniversityThis paper provides a novel model/framework for OR practitioners to approach and engage in complex situations. Developed over many years by the Systems Thinking Practice team at Cranfield University, this framework builds upon and complements previous multi-methodology theory (Jackson, 2019; Mingers & Brocklesby, 1997) and draws from new methodological developments in philosophy of science (Blaikie & Priest, 2017). Reflective Practice lies at the heart of good systems intervention (Churchman, 1979; Dodd, 2018; Hoverstadt, 2022; Jackson, 2019). The proposed framework uses Reflective Practice as the conduit that coheres three interrelated and interdependent domains: the practitioner-academic interface; systems tools and methods; and philosophical perspectives. The intersection of these three domains highlights additional challenge areas that practitioners need to be aware of. At the intersection of Philosophy and Method is a new methodology that links the ‘whats’ and ‘hows’ (Checkland, 1999, p. 163). At the intersection of Practitioner and Method, the practitioner must balance the selection of methods in conjunction with their previous experience, skills and preference for individual tools, in such a way as to be mindful of any biases. The intersection between Practitioner and Philosophy is grounded in the lower levels of the Iceberg Model (Hall, 1976) where the practitioner should be mindful of (and potentially surface) any personal beliefs and values that may inhibit the appreciation of other perspectives. Currently, we apply this model/framework in research in Public Health, Defence and Security and Organisational Resilience; also, in teaching a new generation of systems thinking practitioners who will go on to be active members within the OR community. Going forward, our intention is to generate a set of principles to support practitioners engaging with complex situations within OR

Centriolar satellites expedite mother centriole remodeling to promote ciliogenesis

Centrosomes are orbited by centriolar satellites, dynamic multiprotein assemblies nucleated by Pericentriolar material 1 (PCM1). To study the requirement for centriolar satellites, we generated mice lacking PCM1, a crucial component of satellites. Pcm1−/− mice display partially penetrant perinatal lethality with survivors exhibiting hydrocephalus, oligospermia, and cerebellar hypoplasia, and variably expressive phenotypes such as hydronephrosis. As many of these phenotypes have been observed in human ciliopathies and satellites are implicated in cilia biology, we investigated whether cilia were affected. PCM1 was dispensable for ciliogenesis in many cell types, whereas Pcm1−/− multiciliated ependymal cells and human PCM1−/− retinal pigmented epithelial 1 (RPE1) cells showed reduced ciliogenesis. PCM1−/− RPE1 cells displayed reduced docking of the mother centriole to the ciliary vesicle and removal of CP110 and CEP97 from the distal mother centriole, indicating compromised early ciliogenesis. Similarly, Pcm1−/− ependymal cells exhibited reduced removal of CP110 from basal bodies in vivo. We propose that PCM1 and centriolar satellites facilitate efficient trafficking of proteins to and from centrioles, including the departure of CP110 and CEP97 to initiate ciliogenesis, and that the threshold to trigger ciliogenesis differs between cell types

Promoting early presentation of breast cancer in older women: Implementing an evidence-based intervention in routine clinical practice

Background: Women over 70 with breast cancer have poorer one-year survival and present at a more advanced stage than younger women. Promoting early symptomatic presentation in older women may reduce stage cost effectively and is unlikely to lead to overdiagnosis. After examining efficacy in a randomised controlled trial, we piloted a brief health professional-delivered intervention to equip women to present promptly with breast symptoms, as an integral part of the final invited mammogram at age ~70, in the English National Health Service Breast Screening Programme. Methods: We trained mammographers, who then offered the intervention to older women in four breast screening services. We examined breast cancer awareness at baseline and one month in women receiving the intervention, and also in a service where the intervention was not offered. Results. We trained 27 mammographers to deliver the intervention confidently to a high standard. Breast cancer awareness increased 7-fold at one month in women receiving the intervention compared with 2-fold in the comparison service (odds ratio 15.2, 95% confidence interval 10.0 to 23.2). Conclusions: The PEP Intervention can be implemented in routine clinical practice with a potency similar to that achieved in a randomised controlled trial. It has the potential to reduce delay in diagnosis for breast cancer in older women

Strategic Design and Delivery of Integrated Catchment Restoration Monitoring: Emerging Lessons from a 12-Year Study in the UK

Despite growing interest in river and catchment restoration, including a focus on nature-based solutions, assessing effectiveness of restoration programmes continues to prove a challenge. The development of the Eddleston Water project, the Scottish Government’s empirical study of the impact of implementing natural flood management measures on flood risk and habitat restoration, provides the opportunity to review restoration monitoring at a strategic and operational level for this long-running catchment restoration programme. The project has implemented an extensive range of restoration measures along the river and across the 69 km2 catchment. This paper reviews the monitoring strategy and assesses both how the monitoring network developed meets its strategic aims and what subsequent changes were made in monitoring design and implementation. Covering hydrology, hydromorphology and ecology, we explore how all three are integrated to provide a comprehensive assessment of restoration success. Lessons to help inform other river rehabilitation monitoring programmes include the importance of a scoping study and capturing the full range of environmental variables pre-restoration; the limitations of BACI designs; and the need to focus integrated monitoring on a process-based framework and impact cascade, whilst also covering the full trajectory of recovery

Preconceptional Folate Supplementation and the Risk of Spontaneous Preterm Birth: A Cohort Study

In an analysis of a cohort of pregnant women, Radek Bukowski and colleagues describe an association between taking folic acid supplements and a reduction in the risk of preterm birth

Preconception Care Between Pregnancies: The Content of Internatal Care

For more than two decades, prenatal care has been a cornerstone of our nation’s strategy for improving pregnancy outcomes. In recent years, however, a growing recognition of the limits of prenatal care and the importance of maternal health before pregnancy has drawn increasing attention to preconception and internatal care. Internatal care refers to a package of healthcare and ancillary services provided to a woman and her family from the birth of one child to the birth of her next child. For healthy mothers, internatal care offers an opportunity for wellness promotion between pregnancies. For high-risk mothers, internatal care provides strategies for risk reduction before their next pregnancy. In this paper we begin to define the contents of internatal care. The core components of internatal care consist of risk assessment, health promotion, clinical and psychosocial interventions. We identified several priority areas, such as FINDS (family violence, infections, nutrition, depression, and stress) for risk assessment or BBEEFF (breastfeeding, back-to-sleep, exercise, exposures, family planning and folate) for health promotion. Women with chronic health conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, or weight problems should receive on-going care per clinical guidelines for their evaluation, treatment, and follow-up during the internatal period. For women with prior adverse outcomes such as preterm delivery, we propose an internatal care model based on known etiologic pathways, with the goal of preventing recurrence by addressing these biobehavioral pathways prior to the next pregnancy. We suggest enhancing service integration for women and families, including possibly care coordination and home visitation for selected high-risk women. The primary aim of this paper is to start a dialogue on the content of internatal care