The Retail FX Trader: Random Trading and the Negative Sum Game

With the internet boom of early 2000 making access to trading the Foreign Exchange (FX) market far simpler for members of the general public, the growth of 'retail' FX trading continues, with daily transaction volumes as high as $200 billion. Potential new entrants to the retail FX trading world may come from the recent UK pension deregulations, further increasing the volumes. The attraction of FX trading is that it offers high returns and whilst it has been understood that it is high-risk in nature, the rewards are seen as being commensurately high for the 'skilled and knowledgeable' trader who has an edge over other market participants. This paper analyses a number of independent sources of data and previous research, to examine the profitability of the Retail FX trader and compares the results with that of a simulated random trading models. This paper finds evidence to suggest that whilst approximately 20% of traders can expect to end up with a profitable account, around 40% might expect their account to be subject to a margin call. This paper finds a strong correlation between the overall profitability of traders and impact of the cost of the bid-ask spread, whilst finding little if any evidence that retail FX traders, when viewed as a group, are achieving results better than that from random trading

Political conservatism predicts asymmetries in emotional scene memory

Variation in political ideology has been linked to differences in attention to and processing of emotional stimuli, with stronger responses to negative versus positive stimuli (negativity bias) the more politically conservative one is. As memory is enhanced by attention, such findings predict that memory for negative versus positive stimuli should similarly be enhanced the more conservative one is. The present study tests this prediction by having participants study 120 positive, negative, and neutral scenes in preparation for a subsequent memory test. On the memory test, the same 120 scenes were presented along with 120 new scenes and participants were to respond whether a scene was old or new. Results on the memory test showed that negative scenes were more likely to be remembered than positive scenes, though, this was true only for political conservatives. That is, a larger negativity bias was found the more conservative one was. The effect was sizeable, explaining 45% of the variance across subjects in the effect of emotion. These findings demonstrate that the relationship between political ideology and asymmetries in emotion processing extend to memory and, furthermore, suggest that exploring the extent to which subject variation in interactions among emotion, attention, and memory is predicted by conservatism may provide new insights into theories of political ideology

The Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of a Four-Month Regimen for First-Line Treatment of Active Tuberculosis in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: A 4-month first-line treatment regimen for tuberculosis disease (TB) is expected to have a direct impact on patient outcomes and societal costs, as well as an indirect impact on Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission. We aimed to estimate this combined impact in a high TB-burden country: South Africa. METHOD: An individual based M. tb transmission model was fitted to the TB burden of South Africa using a standard TB natural history framework. We measured the impact on TB burden from 2015-2035 of introduction of a non-inferior 4-month regimen replacing the standard 6-month regimen as first-line therapy. Impact was measured with respect to three separate baselines (Guidelines, Policy and Current), reflecting differences in adherence to TB and HIV treatment guidelines. Further scenario analyses considered the variation in treatment-related parameters and resistance levels. Impact was measured in terms of differences in TB burden and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) averted. We also examined the highest cost at which the new regimen would be cost-effective for several willingness-to-pay thresholds. RESULTS: It was estimated that a 4-month regimen would avert less than 1% of the predicted 6 million person years with TB disease in South Africa between 2015 and 2035. A similarly small impact was seen on deaths and DALYs averted. Despite this small impact, with the health systems and patient cost savings from regimen shortening, the 4-month regimen could be cost-effective at $436 [NA, 5983] (mean [range]) per month at a willingness-to-pay threshold of one GDP per capita ($6,618). CONCLUSION: The introduction of a non-inferior 4-month first-line TB regimen into South Africa would have little impact on the TB burden. However, under several scenarios, it is likely that the averted societal costs would make such a regimen cost-effective in South Africa

The lncRNA HOTAIR transcription is controlled by HNF4α-induced chromatin topology modulation

The expression of the long noncoding RNA HOTAIR (HOX Transcript Antisense Intergenic RNA) is largely deregulated in epithelial cancers and positively correlates with poor prognosis and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma and gastrointestinal cancers. Furthermore, functional studies revealed a pivotal role for HOTAIR in the epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition, as this RNA is causal for the repressive activity of the master factor SNAIL on epithelial genes. Despite the proven oncogenic role of HOTAIR, its transcriptional regulation is still poorly understood. Here hepatocyte nuclear factor 4-α (HNF4α), as inducer of epithelial differentiation, was demonstrated to directly repress HOTAIR transcription in the mesenchymal-to epithelial transition. Mechanistically, HNF4α was found to cause the release of a chromatin loop on HOTAIR regulatory elements thus exerting an enhancer-blocking activity

Revisiting diagenesis on the Ontong Java Plateau: Evidence for authigenic crust precipitation in Globorotalia tumida

The calcite tests of foraminifera lie in marine sediments for thousands to millions of years, before being analysed to generate trace element and isotope palaeoproxy records. These sediments constitute a distinct physio-chemical environment from the conditions in which the tests formed. Storage in sediments can modify the trace element and isotopic content of foraminiferal calcite through diagenetic alteration, which has the potential to confound their palaeoceanographic interpretation. A previous study of G. tumida from the Ontong Java Plateau, western equatorial Pacific, found that preferential dissolution of higher-Mg chamber calcite, and the preservation of a low-Mg crust on the tests significantly reduced whole-test Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca [Brown and Elderfield, 1996]. Here, we revisit these specimens with a combination of synchrotron X-ray computed tomography (sXCT) and electron probe micro-analyses (EPMA) to re-evaluate the nature of their diagenetic alteration. The dissolution of higher-Mg calcite with depth was directly observed in the sXCT data, confirming the inference of the previous study. The sXCT data further reveal a thickening of the chemically and structurally distinct calcite crust with depth. We propose that these crusts have a diagenetic origin, driven by the simultaneous dissolution of high-Mg chamber calcite and precipitation of low-Mg crust from the resulting modified pore-water solution. While the breadth of the study is limited by the nature of the techniques, the observation of both dissolution and re-precipitation of foraminiferal calcite serves to demonstrate the action of two simultaneous diagenetic alteration processes, with significant impacts on the resulting palaeoproxy signals.The authors would like to acknowledge Aleksey Sadekov, Gerald Langer, India Weidle, Alberto de Fanis, Andrew Bodey, Joan Vila-Comamala and Ulrich Wagner for their help with the project. The work was funded by the Diamond Light Source and by the ERC (2010-NEWLOG ADG-267931 grant to HE).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014PA00275

Resistance to penicillin of Staphylococcus aureus isolates from cows with high somatic cell counts in organic and conventional dairy herds in Denmark

BACKGROUND: Quarter milk samples from cows with high risk of intramammary infection were examined to determine the prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) and penicillin resistant SA (SAr) in conventional and organic dairy herds and herds converting to organic farming in a combined longitudinal and cross-sectional study. METHODS: 20 conventional herds, 18 organic herds that converted before 1995, and 19 herds converting to organic farming in 1999 or 2000 were included in the study. Herds converting to organic farming were sampled three times one year apart; the other herds were sampled once. Risk of infection was estimated based on somatic cell count, milk production, breed, age and lactation stage. RESULTS: The high-risk cows represented about 49 % of the cows in the herds. The overall prevalence of SA and SAr among these cows was 29% (95% confidence interval: 24%–34%) and 4% (95% confidence interval: 2%–5%) respectively. The prevalence of penicillin resistance among SA infected cows was 12% (95% confidence interval: 6%–19%) when calculated from the first herd visits. No statistically significant differences were observed in the prevalence of SAr or the proportion of isolates resistant to penicillin between herd groups. CONCLUSION: The proportion of isolates resistant to penicillin was low compared to studies in other countries except Norway and Sweden. Based on the low prevalence of penicillin resistance of SA, penicillin should still be the first choice of antimicrobial agent for treatment of bovine intramammary infection in Denmark

A Core Outcome Set for the prevention and treatment of fetal GROwth restriction: deVeloping Endpoints: the COSGROVE study.

BACKGROUND: Fetal growth restriction refers to a fetus that does not reach its genetically predetermined growth potential. It is well-recognized that growth-restricted fetuses are at increased risk of both short- and long-term adverse outcomes. Systematic evaluation of the evidence from clinical trials of fetal growth restriction is often difficult because of variation in the outcomes that are measured and reported. The development of core outcome sets for fetal growth restriction studies would enable future trials to measure similar meaningful outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to develop core outcome sets for trials of prevention or treatment of fetal growth restriction. STUDY DESIGN: This was a Delphi consensus study. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify outcomes that were reported in studies of prevention or treatment of fetal growth restriction. All outcomes were presented for prioritization to key stakeholders (135 healthcare providers, 68 researchers/academics, and 35 members of the public) in 3 rounds of online Delphi surveys. A priori consensus criteria were used to reach agreement on the final outcomes for inclusion in the core outcome set at a face-to-face meeting with 5 healthcare providers, 5 researchers/academics, and 6 maternity service users. RESULTS: In total, 22 outcomes were included in the final core outcome set. These outcomes were grouped under 4 domains: maternal (n=4), fetal (n=1), neonatal (n=12), and childhood (n=5). CONCLUSION: The Core Outcome Set for the prevention and treatment of fetal GROwth restriction: deVeloping Endpoints study identified a large number of potentially relevant outcomes and then reached consensus on those factors that, as a minimum, should be measured and reported in all future trials of prevention or treatment of fetal growth restriction. This will enable future trials to measure similar meaningful outcomes and to ensure that findings from different studies can be compared and combined