Evaluation of the Usgs National Elevation Dataset and the Kansas Biological Survey's FLDPLN ("Floodplain") Model for Inundation Extent Estimation

The Kansas Biological Survey has developed a library of modeled flood inundation extents, using the FLDPLN model, for major streams across Kansas that can be accessed in near real-time to provide valuable information to disaster responders. This research 1) examines the USGS National Elevation Dataset (NED) and evaluates the affects of errors in the elevation data on flood inundation extent estimation and 2) evaluates the capabilities and limitations of the FLDPLN model for inundation extent estimation. Results showed that, although the accuracy of pre-LiDAR NED is better than published figures, modeled flood extents vary significantly when using LiDAR-derived vs. pre-LiDAR NED elevation data inputs. Comparison of modeled flood extents for HEC-RAS, HAZUS, and FLDPLN models for both hypothetical and empirical floods events showed greater correspondence at high flood stages. Improved elevation data and empirical low flood data would offer improved flood extent estimates and more robust model evaluation

Toward Rapid Flood Mapping Using Modeled Inundation Libraries

New methods are needed for mapping floods in near real-time that leverage the increasing availability of remotely sensed data during flood disasters, availability of improved elevation data, and improvements in web-based mapping technology. There are important, ongoing improvements in elevation data production and availability that support new methods of flood disaster mapping. Concurrently, there is a rapid increase in the temporal frequency of high resolution remote sensing data that is being acquired that can also support novel application development. This study focuses on the use of prebuilt, modeled inundation libraries capable of using traditional and novel inputs as proxies for water surface elevation to produce near real-time estimates of flood inundation. Thus, the research explores potential synergies between inundation libraries and ancillary datasets with the goal of expediting the timeline for information extraction from remotely sensed data and the improving flood inundation map accuracy. It also profiles the computational cost of the modeling algorithm used. The study presents strategies for production of wide area, modeled flood inundation libraries. Gage-based interpolation methods using the FLDPLN model showed little difference in flood extent estimation accuracy between horizontal and vertical interpolation methods for FLDPLN model depth-to-flood (DTF) values. Conditioning of DTF profiles using HEC-RAS modeled water surface elevations (WSE) showed sensitivity to reference flood levels, while conditioning with two HEC-RAS model WSE profiles showed the best results. Simulation of imagery-derived flood boundary points as inputs to flood extent estimation using interpolated DTF profiles showed very good results with a very limited number of input points. The results showed improved, asymptotic behavior when correspondence was measured with an increasing number of input points when compared to reference floods. Larger magnitude floods showed better correspondence relative to moderate magnitude floods. Baseline computational performance measures for inundation library generation with the FLDPLN models showed that longer stream segments show better overall computational efficiency. Some landscape factors can influence overall computational runtime, including proximity to reservoirs and lakes, wide floodplains, and complex tributary geometries

Ethanol plant location and intensification vs. extensification of corn cropping in Kansas

This is the author final draft. Copyright 2014 Elsevier.Farmers' cropping decisions are a product of a complex mix of socio-economic, cultural, and natural environments in which factors operating at a number of different spatial scales affect how farmers ultimately decide to use their land in any given year or over a set of years. Some environmentalists are concerned that increased demand for corn driven by ethanol production is leading to conversion of non-cropland into corn production (which we label as “extensification”). Ethanol industry advocates counter that more than enough corn supply comes from crop switching to corn and increased yields (which we label as “intensification”). In this study, we determine whether either response to corn demand – intensification or extensification – is supported. This is determined through an analysis of land-use/land-cover (LULC) data that covers the state of Kansas and a measure of a corn demand shifter related to ethanol production – distance to the closest ethanol plant – between 2007 and 2009

Observing the Evolution of the Universe

How did the universe evolve? The fine angular scale (l>1000) temperature and polarization anisotropies in the CMB are a Rosetta stone for understanding the evolution of the universe. Through detailed measurements one may address everything from the physics of the birth of the universe to the history of star formation and the process by which galaxies formed. One may in addition track the evolution of the dark energy and discover the net neutrino mass. We are at the dawn of a new era in which hundreds of square degrees of sky can be mapped with arcminute resolution and sensitivities measured in microKelvin. Acquiring these data requires the use of special purpose telescopes such as the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), located in Chile, and the South Pole Telescope (SPT). These new telescopes are outfitted with a new generation of custom mm-wave kilo-pixel arrays. Additional instruments are in the planning stages.Comment: Science White Paper submitted to the US Astro2010 Decadal Survey. Full list of 177 author available at http://cmbpol.uchicago.ed

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

CMB-S4---the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment---is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semi-analytic projection tool, targeted explicitly towards optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2--3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semi-analytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for $r > 0.003$ at greater than $5\sigma$, or, in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of $r < 0.001$ at $95\%$ CL.Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures, 9 tables, submitted to ApJ. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1907.0447

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Performance and characterization of the SPT-3G digital frequency-domain multiplexed readout system using an improved noise and crosstalk model

The third-generation South Pole Telescope camera (SPT-3G) improves upon its predecessor (SPTpol) by an order of magnitude increase in detectors on the focal plane. The technology used to read out and control these detectors, digital frequency-domain multiplexing (DfMUX), is conceptually the same as used for SPTpol, but extended to accommodate more detectors. A nearly 5× expansion in the readout operating bandwidth has enabled the use of this large focal plane, and SPT-3G performance meets the forecasting targets relevant to its science objectives. However, the electrical dynamics of the higher-bandwidth readout differ from predictions based on models of the SPTpol system due to the higher frequencies used and parasitic impedances associated with new cryogenic electronic architecture. To address this, we present an updated derivation for electrical crosstalk in higher-bandwidth DfMUX systems and identify two previously uncharacterized contributions to readout noise, which become dominant at high bias frequency. The updated crosstalk and noise models successfully describe the measured crosstalk and readout noise performance of SPT-3G. These results also suggest specific changes to warm electronics component values, wire-harness properties, and SQUID parameters, to improve the readout system for future experiments using DfMUX, such as the LiteBIRD space telescope

CMB-S4

We describe the stage 4 cosmic microwave background ground-based experiment CMB-S4