Geographical mortality patterns in Italy

In this paper, we present a hierarchical spatial model for the analysis of geographical variation in mortality between the Italian provinces in the year 2001, according to gender, age class, and cause of death. When analysing counts data specific to geographical locations, classical empirical rates or standardised mortality ratios may produce estimates that show a very high level of overdispersion due to the effect of spatial autocorrelation among the observations, and due to the presence of heterogeneity among the population sizes. We adopt a Bayesian approach and a Markov chain Monte Carlo computation with the goal of making more consistent inferences about the quantities of interest. While considering information for the year 1991, we also take into account a temporal effect from the previous geographical pattern. Results have demonstrated the flexibility of our proposal in evaluating specific aspects of a counts spatial process, such as the clustering effect and the heterogeneity effect.clustering effect, heterogeneity effect, hierarchical spatio-temporal model, relative risks

Bayesian logistic regression for presence-only data

Presence-only data are referred to situations in which a censoring mechanism acts on a binary response which can be partially observed only with respect to one outcome, usually denoting the \textit{presence} of an attribute of interest. A typical example is the recording of species presence in ecological surveys. In this work a Bayesian approach to the analysis of presence-only data based on a two levels scheme is presented. A probability law and a case-control design are combined to handle the double source of uncertainty: one due to censoring and the other one due to sampling. In the paper, through the use of a stratified sampling design with non-overlapping strata, a new formulation of the logistic model for presence-only data is proposed. In particular, the logistic regression with linear predictor is considered. Estimation is carried out with a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm with data augmentation, which does not require the a priori knowledge of the population prevalence. The performance of the new algorithm is validated by means of extensive simulation experiments using three scenarios and comparison with optimal benchmarks. An application to data existing in literature is reported in order to discuss the model behaviour in real world situations together with the results of an original study on termites occurrences data

Bayesian Modeling and MCMC Computation in Linear Logistic Regression for Presence-only Data

Presence-only data are referred to situations in which, given a censoring mechanism, a binary response can be observed only with respect to on outcome, usually called \textit{presence}. In this work we present a Bayesian approach to the problem of presence-only data based on a two levels scheme. A probability law and a case-control design are combined to handle the double source of uncertainty: one due to the censoring and one due to the sampling. We propose a new formalization for the logistic model with presence-only data that allows further insight into inferential issues related to the model. We concentrate on the case of the linear logistic regression and, in order to make inference on the parameters of interest, we present a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm with data augmentation that does not require the a priori knowledge of the population prevalence. A simulation study concerning 24,000 simulated datasets related to different scenarios is presented comparing our proposal to optimal benchmarks.Comment: Affiliations: Fabio Divino - Division of Physics, Computer Science and Mathematics, University of Molise Giovanna jona Lasinio and Natalia Golini - Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Rome "La Sapienza" Antti Penttinen - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Jyv\"{a}skyl\"{a} CONTACT: [email protected], [email protected]

Microbial community analysis with a specific statistical approach after a record breaking snowfall in Southern Italy

Abstract Purpose Snow and ice ecosystems present unexpectedly high microbial abundance and diversity. Although arctic and alpine snow environments have been intensively investigated from a microbiological point of view, few studies have been conducted in the Apennines. Accordingly, the main purpose of this research was to analyze the microbial communities of the snow collected in two different locations of Capracotta municipality (Southern Italy) after a snowfall record occurred on March 2015 (256 cm of snow in less than 24 h). Methods Bacterial communities were analyzed by the Next-Generation Sequencing techniques. Furthermore, a specific statistical approach for taxonomic hierarchy data was introduced, both for the assessment of diversity within microbial communities and the comparison between different microbiotas. In general, diversity and similarity indices are more informative when computed at the lowest level of the taxonomic hierarchy, the species level. This is not the case with microbial data, for which the species level is not necessarily the most informative. Indeed, the possibility to detect a large number of unclassified records at every level of the hierarchy (even at the top) is very realistic due to both the partial knowledge about the cultivable fraction of microbial communities and limitations to taxonomic assignment connected to the quality and completeness of the 16S rRNA gene reference databases. Thus, a global approach considering information from the whole taxonomic hierarchy was adopted in order to obtain a more consistent assessment of the biodiversity. Result The main phyla retrieved in the investigated snow samples were Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Firmicutes. Interestingly, DNA from bacteria adapted to thrive at low temperatures, but also from microorganisms normally associated with other habitats, whose presence in the snow could be justified by wind-transport, was found. Biomolecular investigations and statistical data analysis showed relevant differences in terms of biodiversity, composition, and distribution of bacterial species between the studied snow samples. Conclusion The relevance of this research lies in the expansion of knowledge about microorganisms associated with cold environments in contexts poorly investigated such as the Italian Apennines, and in the development of a global statistical approach for the assessment of biological diversity and similarity of microbial communities as an additional tool to be usefully combined with the barcoding methods

An ensemble approach to short‐term forecast of COVID‐19 intensive care occupancy in Italian regions

The availability of intensive care beds during the COVID‐19 epidemic is crucial to guarantee the best possible treatment to severely affected patients. In this work we show a simple strategy for short‐term prediction of COVID‐19 intensive care unit (ICU) beds, that has proved very effective during the Italian outbreak in February to May 2020. Our approach is based on an optimal ensemble of two simple methods: a generalized linear mixed regression model, which pools information over different areas, and an area‐specific nonstationary integer autoregressive methodology. Optimal weights are estimated using a leave‐last‐out rationale. The approach has been set up and validated during the first epidemic wave in Italy. A report of its performance for predicting ICU occupancy at regional level is included

Light spectra of biophilic LED-sourced system modify essential oils composition and plant morphology of Mentha piperita L. and Ocimum basilicum L

Investigating morphological and molecular mechanisms that plants adopt in response to artificial biophilic lighting is crucial for implementing biophilic approaches in indoor environments. Also, studying the essential oils (EOs) composition in aromatic plants can help unveil the light influence on plant metabolism and open new investigative routes devoted to producing valuable molecules for human health and commercial applications. We assessed the growth performance and the EOs composition of Mentha x piperita and Ocimum basilicum grown under an innovative artificial biophilic lighting system (CoeLux®), that enables the simulation of natural sunlight with a realistic sun perception, and compared it to high-pressure sodium lamps (control) We found that plants grown under the CoeLux® light type experienced a general suppression of both above and belowground biomass, a high leaf area, and a lower leaf thickness, which might be related to the shade avoidance syndrome. The secondary metabolites composition in the plants’ essential oils was scarcely affected by both light intensity and spectral composition of the CoeLux® light type, as similarities above 80% were observed with respect to the control light treatments and within both plant species. The major differences were detected with respect to the EOs extracted from plants grown under natural sunlight (52% similarity in M. piperita and 75% in O. basilicum). Overall, it can be speculated that the growth of these two aromatic plants under the CoeLux® lighting systems is a feasible strategy to improve biophilic approaches in closed environments that include both plants and artificial sunlight. Among the two plant species analyzed, O. basilicum showed an overall better performance in terms of both morphological traits and essential oil composition. To increase biomass production and enhance the EOs quality (e.g., higher menthol concentrations), further studies should focus on technical solutions to raise the light intensity irradiating plants during their growth under the CoeLux® lighting systems

Nowcasting COVID-19 incidence indicators during the Italian first outbreak

A novel parametric regression model is proposed to fit incidence data typically collected during epidemics. The proposal is motivated by real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the main epidemiological indicators within the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. Accurate short-term predictions, including the potential effect of exogenous or external variables are provided. This ensures to accurately predict important characteristics of the epidemic (e.g., peak time and height), allowing for a better allocation of health resources over time. Parameter estimation is carried out in a maximum likelihood framework. All computational details required to reproduce the approach and replicate the results are provided.publishedVersio