The first Forecasters Handbook for West Africa

Bridging the gap between rapidly moving scientific research and specific forecasting tools, Meteorology of Tropical West Africa: The Forecasters' Handbook’, gives unprecedented access to the latest science and combines this with pragmatic approaches to forecasting. It is set to change the way forecasters, researchers and students learn about tropical meteorology and will serve to drive demand for new forecasting tools. The Handbook builds upon the legacy of the AMMA project, making the latest science applicable to forecasting in the region. By bringing together, at the outset, researchers and forecasters from across the region, and linking to applications, user communities and decision-makers, the Forecasters’ Handbook provides a template for finding much needed solutions to critical issues such as building resilience to climate change in West Africa

Advancing research for seamless Earth system prediction

Whether on an urban or planetary scale, covering time scales of a few minutes or a few decades, the societal need for more accurate weather, climate, water, and environmental information has led to a more seamless thinking across disciplines and communities. This challenge, at the intersection of scientific research and society’s need, is among the most important scientific and technological challenges of our time. The “Science Summit on Seamless Research for Weather, Climate, Water, and Environment” organized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 2017, has brought together researchers from a variety of institutions for a cross-disciplinary exchange of knowledge and ideas relating to seamless Earth system science. The outcomes of the Science Summit, and the interactions it sparked, highlight the benefit of a seamless Earth system science approach. Such an approach has the potential to break down artificial barriers that may exist due to different observing systems, models, time and space scales, and compartments of the Earth system. In this context, the main future challenges for research infrastructures have been identified. A value cycle approach has been proposed to guide innovation in seamless Earth system prediction. The engagement of researchers, users, and stakeholders will be crucial for the successful development of a seamless Earth system science that meets the needs of society

Trend in the Co-Occurrence of Extreme Daily Rainfall in West Africa Since 1950

International audienceWe propose in this paper a statistical framework to study the evolution of the co‐occurrence of extreme daily rainfall in West Africa since 1950. We consider two regions subject to contrasted rainfall regimes: Senegal and the central Sahel. We study the likelihood of the 3% largest daily rainfall (considering all days) in each region to occur simultaneously and, in a 20 year moving window approach, how this likelihood has evolved with time. Our method uses an anisotropic max‐stable process allowing us to properly represent the co‐occurrence of daily extremes and including the possibility of a preferred direction of co‐occurrence. In Senegal, a change is found in the 1980s, with preferred co‐occurrence along the E‐50‐N direction (i.e., along azimuth 50°) before the 1980s and weaker isotropic co‐occurrence afterward. In central Sahel, a change is also found in the 1980s but surprisingly with contrasting results. Anisotropy along the E‐W direction is found over the whole period, with greater extension after the 1980s. The paper discusses how the co‐occurrence of extremes can provide a qualitative indicator on change in size and propagation of the strongest storms. This calls for further research to identify the atmospheric processes responsible for such contrasted changes in storm properties

Formation and Transport of a Saharan Dust Plume in Early Summer

This research studies the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Chemistry/Aerosol module (WRF-Chem) with and without parametrization to reproduce a dust storm, which was held on 27th June 2018 over Sahara region. The authors use satellite observations and ground-based measurements to evaluate the WRF-Chem simulations. The sensitivities of WRF-Chem Model are tested on the replication of haboob features with a tuned GOCART aerosol module. Comparisons of simulations with satellite and ground-based observations show that WRF-Chem is able to reproduce the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) distribution and associated changes of haboob in the meteorological fields with temperature drops of about 9 °C and wind gust 20 m·s–1. The WRF-Chem Convection-permitting model (CPM) shows strong 10-meter winds induced a large dust emission along the leading edge of a convective cold pool (LECCP). The CPM indicates heavy dust transported over the West African coast (16°W-10°W; 6°N-21°N) which has a potential for long-distance travel on 27th June between 1100 UTC and 1500 UTC. The daily precipitation is improved in the CPM with a spatial distribution similar to the GPM-IMERG precipitation and maximum rainfall located at the right place. As well as raising a large amount of dust, the haboob caused considerable damage along its route

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) rainfall curves in Senegal

International audienceUrbanization resulting from sharply increasing demographic pressure and infrastructure development has made the populations of many tropical areas more vulnerable to extreme rainfall hazards. Characterizing extreme rainfall distribution in a coherent way in space and time is thus becoming an overarching need that requires using appropriate models of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Using a 14 series of 5 min rainfall records collected in Senegal, a comparison of two generalized extreme value (GEV) and scaling models is carried out, resulting in the selection of the more parsimonious one (four parameters), as the recommended model for use. A bootstrap approach is proposed to compute the uncertainty associated with the estimation of these four parameters and of the related rainfall return levels for durations ranging from 1 to 24 h. This study confirms previous works showing that simple scaling holds for characterizing the temporal scaling of extreme rainfall in tropical regions such as sub-Saharan Africa. It further provides confidence intervals for the parameter estimates and shows that the uncertainty linked to the estimation of the GEV parameters is 3 to 4 times larger than the uncertainty linked to the inference of the scaling parameter. From this model, maps of IDF parameters over Senegal are produced, providing a spatial vision of their organization over the country, with a north to south gradient for the location and scale parameters of the GEV. An influence of the distance from the ocean was found for the scaling parameter. It is acknowledged in conclusion that climate change renders the inference of IDF curves sensitive to increasing non-stationarity effects, which requires warning end-users that such tools should be used with care and discernment

The African SWIFT project: growing science capability to bring about a revolution in weather prediction

Africa is poised for a revolution in the quality and relevance of weather predictions, with potential for great benefits in terms of human and economic security. This revolution will be driven by recent international progress in nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, theoretical tropical dynamics and forecast communication, but will depend on suitable scientific investment being made. The commercial sector has recognized this opportunity and new forecast products are being made available to African stakeholders. At this time, it is vital that robust scientific methods are used to develop and evaluate the new generation of forecasts. The GCRF African SWIFT project represents an international effort to advance scientific solutions across the fields of nowcasting, synoptic and short-range severe weather prediction, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, user engagement and forecast evaluation. This paper describes the opportunities facing African meteorology and the ways in which SWIFT is meeting those opportunities and identifying priority next steps. Delivery and maintenance of weather forecasting systems exploiting these new solutions requires a trained body of scientists with skills in research and training; modelling and operational prediction; communications and leadership. By supporting partnerships between academia and operational agencies in four African partner countries, the SWIFT project is helping to build capacity and capability in African forecasting science. A highlight of SWIFT is the coordination of three weather-forecasting “Testbeds” – the first of their kind in Africa – which have been used to bring new evaluation tools, research insights, user perspectives and communications pathways into a semi-operational forecasting environment