The use of meteorological analogues to account for LAM QPF uncertainty

International audienceFlood predictions based on quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) provided by deterministic models do not account for the uncertainty in the outcomes. A probabilistic approach to QPF, one which accounts for the variability of phenomena and the uncertainty associated with a hydrological forecast, seems to be indispensable to obtain different future flow scenarios for improved flood management. A new approach based on a search for analogues, that is past situations similar to the current one under investigation in terms of different meteorological fields over Western Europe and East Atlantic, has been developed to determine an ensemble of hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts for the Reno river basin, a medium-sized catchment in northern Italy. A statistical analysis, performed over a hydro-meteorological archive of ECMWF analyses at 12:00 UTC relative to the autumn seasons ranging from 1990 to 2000 and the corresponding precipitation measurements recorded by the raingauges spread over the catchment of interest, has underlined that the combination of geopotential at 500 hPa and vertical velocity at 700 hPa provides a better estimation of precipitation. The analogue-based ensemble prediction has to be considered not alternative but complementary to the deterministic QPF provided by a numerical model, even when employed jointly to improve real-time flood forecasting. In the present study, the analogue-based QPFs and the precipitation forecast provided by the Limited Area Model LAMBO have been used as different input to the distributed rainfall-runoff model TOPKAPI, thus generating, respectively, an ensemble of discharge forecasts, which provides a confidence interval for the predicted streamflow, and a deterministic discharge forecast taken as an error-affected "measurement" of the future flow, which does not convey any quantification of the forecast uncertainty. To make more informative the hydrological prediction, the ensemble spread could be regarded as a measure of the uncertainty of the deterministic forecast

The use of meteorological analogues to account for LAM QPF uncertainty

International audienceFlood predictions issued employing quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) provided by deterministic models do not account for the uncertainty in the outcomes. A probabilistic approach to QPF seems to be indispensable to obtain different future flow scenarios that allow to manage the flood accounting for the variability of phenomena and the uncertainty associated with an hydrological forecast. A new approach based on a search for past situations (analogues), similar to previous and current day in terms of different meteorological fields over Western Europe and East Atlantic, has been developed to determine an ensemble of hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts for the Reno river basin, a medium-sized catchment in northern Italy. A statistical analysis, performed over an hydro-meteorological archive collecting ECMWF analyses at 12:00 UTC relative to the autumn seasons ranging from 1990 to 2000 and the corresponding precipitation measurements recorded by the raingauges spread over the catchment of interest, has underlined that the combination of geopotential at 500 hPa and vertical velocity at 700 hPa provides a better estimation of precipitation. The analogue-based ensemble prediction has to be considered not alternative but complementary with the deterministic QPF provided by a numerical model, even in view of a joint employment to improve real-time flood forecasting. In the present study, the analogue-based QPFs and the precipitation forecast provided by the Limited Area Model LAMBO have been used as different input to the distributed rainfall-runoff model TOPKAPI, thus generating, respectively, an ensemble of discharge forecasts, which provides a confidence interval for the predicted streamflow, and a deterministic discharge forecast taken as an error affected "measurement'' of the future flow, which does not convey any quantification of the forecast uncertainty. To make more informative the hydrological prediction, the ensemble spread could be regarded as a measure of the uncertainty of the deterministic forecast

Review of the ELI-NP-GBS low level rf and synchronization systems

The Gamma Beam System (GBS) of ELI-NP is a linac based gamma-source in construction at Magurele (RO) by the European consortium EuroGammaS led by INFN. Photons with tunable energy and with intensity and brilliance well beyond the state of the art will be produced by Compton back-scattering between a high quality electron beam (up to 740 MeV) and a 515 nm intense laser pulse. Production of very intense photon flux with narrow bandwidth requires multi-bunch operation at 100 Hz repetition rate. A total of 13 klystrons, 3 S-band (2856 MHz) and 10 C-band (5712 MHz) will power a total of 14 Travelling Wave accelerating sections (2 S-band and 12 C-band) plus 3 S-band Standing Wave cavities (a 1.6 cell RF gun and 2 RF deflectors). Each klystron is individually driven by a temperature stabilized LLRF module, for a maximum flexibility in terms of accelerating gradient, arbitrary pulse shaping (e.g. to compensate beam loading effects in multi-bunch regime) and compensation of long-term thermal drifts. In this paper, the whole LLRF system architecture and bench test results, the RF reference generation and distribution together with an overview of the synchronization system will be described

Inhibition of LPS-Induced Inflammatory Response of Oral Mesenchymal Stem Cells in the Presence of Galectin-3

Galectin-3 (GAL-3) is a beta-galactoside binding lectin produced by mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) and other cell sources under inflammatory conditions. Several studies have reported that GAL-3 exerts an anti-inflammatory action, regulated by its natural ligand GAL-3 BP. In the present study, we aimed to assess the GAL-3 mediated regulation of the MSC function in an LPS-induced inflammation setting. Human gingival mesenchymal stem cells (hGMSCs) were stimulated in vitro with LPSs; the expression of TLR4, NFκB p65, MyD88 and NALP3 were assessed in the hGMSCs via immunofluorescence imaging using confocal microscopy, Western blot assay, and RT-PCR before and after the addition of GAL-3, both alone and with the addition of its inhibitors. LPSs stimulated the expression of TLR4, NFκB p65, MyD88 and NALP3 in hGMSCs, which was inhibited by GAL-3. The addition of either GAL3-BP or the antibody to GAL-3 were able to revert the GAL-3-mediated effects, restoring the expression of TLR4, NFκB p65, MyD88 and NALP3. GAL-3 induces the downregulation of the LPS-induced inflammatory program in MSCs

Longitudinal phase-space manipulation with beam-driven plasma wakefields

The development of compact accelerator facilities providing high-brightness beams is one of the most challenging tasks in field of next-generation compact and cost affordable particle accelerators, to be used in many fields for industrial, medical and research applications. The ability to shape the beam longitudinal phase-space, in particular, plays a key role to achieve high-peak brightness. Here we present a new approach that allows to tune the longitudinal phase-space of a high-brightness beam by means of a plasma wakefields. The electron beam passing through the plasma drives large wakefields that are used to manipulate the time-energy correlation of particles along the beam itself. We experimentally demonstrate that such solution is highly tunable by simply adjusting the density of the plasma and can be used to imprint or remove any correlation onto the beam. This is a fundamental requirement when dealing with largely time-energy correlated beams coming from future plasma accelerators

Gelsolin pathogenic Gly167Arg mutation promotes domain-swap dimerization of the protein

AGel amyloidosis is a genetic degenerative disease characterized by the deposition of insoluble gelsolin protein aggregates in different tissues. Until recently, this disease was associated with two mutations of a single residue (Asp187 to Asn/Tyr) in the second domain of the protein. The general opinion is that pathogenic variants are not per se amyloidogenic but rather that the mutations trigger an aberrant proteolytic cascade, which results in the production of aggregation prone fragments. Here, we report the crystal structure of the second domain of gelsolin carrying the recently identified Gly167Arg mutation. This mutant dimerizes through a three-dimensional domain swapping mechanism, forming a tight but flexible assembly, which retains the structural topology of the monomer. To date, such dramatic conformational changes of this type have not been observed. Structural and biophysical characterizations reveal that the Gly167Arg mutation alone is responsible for the monomer to dimer transition and that, even in the context of the full-length protein, the pathogenic variant is prone to form dimers. These data suggest that, in addition to the well-known proteolytic-dependent mechanism, an alternative oligomerization pathway may participate in gelsolin misfolding and aggregation. We propose to integrate this alternative pathway into the current model of the disease that may also be relevant for other types of AGel amyloidosis, and other related diseases with similar underlying pathological mechanisms

Plasma kinetics issues in an ESA study for a plasma laboratory in space

A study supported by the European Space Agency (ESA), in the context of its General Studies Programme, performed an investigation of the possible use of space for studies in pure and applied plasma physics, in areas not traditionally covered by ‘space plasma physics’. A set of experiments have been identified that can potentially provide access to new phenomena and to allow advances in several fields of plasma science. These experiments concern phenomena on a spatial scale (101–104 m) intermediate between what is achievable on the ground and the usual solar system plasma observations. Detailed feasibility studies have been performed for three experiments: active magnetic experiments, largescale discharges and long tether–plasma interactions. The perspectives opened by these experiments are discussed for magnetic reconnection, instabilities, MHD turbulence, atomic excited states kinetics, weakly ionized plasmas,plasma diagnostics, artificial auroras and atmospheric studies. The discussion is also supported by results of numerical simulations and estimates

Insight into contraction dynamics of microwave plasmas for CO2 conversion from plasma chemistry modelling

This work addresses plasma chemistry in the core of a vortex-stabilized microwave discharge for CO2 conversion numerically, focusing on the pressure-dependent contraction dynamics of this plasma. A zero-dimensional model is presented for experimental conditions in a pressure range between 60 and 300 mbar and a temperature range between 3000 and 6500 K. Monte Carlo Flux simulations, which describe electron kinetics, are self-consistently coupled to the plasma chemistry model. The simulation results show that an increase in pressure is accompanied by a transition in neutral composition in the plasma core: from a significant amount of CO2 and O2 at low pressures to a O/CO/C mixture at high pressures, the composition being determined mostly by thermal equilibrium and by transport processes. The change of temperature and composition with pressure lead to higher ionisation coefficient and more atomic ion composition in the plasma core. These changes result in an increase in ionisation degree in the plasma core from 10-5 to 10-4. These factors are shown to be fundamental to drive contraction in the CO2 microwave discharge.</p

Micro- and Nanoplastics’ Effects on Protein Folding and Amyloidosis

A significant portion of the world's plastic is not properly disposed of and, through various processes, is degraded into microscopic particles termed micro- and nanoplastics. Marine and terrestrial faunae, including humans, inevitably get in contact and may inhale and ingest these microscopic plastics which can deposit throughout the body, potentially altering cellular and molecular functions in the nervous and other systems. For instance, at the cellular level, studies in animal models have shown that plastic particles can cross the blood-brain barrier and interact with neurons, and thus affect cognition. At the molecular level, plastics may specifically influence the folding of proteins, induce the formation of aberrant amyloid proteins, and therefore potentially trigger the development of systemic and local amyloidosis. In this review, we discuss the general issue of plastic micro- and nanoparticle generation, with a focus on their effects on protein folding, misfolding, and their possible clinical implications