Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

Targeting human Acyl-CoA:cholesterol acyltransferase as a dual viral and T cell metabolic checkpoint

Determining divergent metabolic requirements of T cells, and the viruses and tumours they fail to combat, could provide new therapeutic checkpoints. Inhibition of acyl-CoA:cholesterol acyltransferase (ACAT) has direct anti-carcinogenic activity. Here, we show that ACAT inhibition has antiviral activity against hepatitis B (HBV), as well as boosting protective anti-HBV and anti-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) T cells. ACAT inhibition reduces CD8+ T cell neutral lipid droplets and promotes lipid microdomains, enhancing TCR signalling and TCR-independent bioenergetics. Dysfunctional HBV- and HCC-specific T cells are rescued by ACAT inhibitors directly ex vivo from human liver and tumour tissue respectively, including tissue-resident responses. ACAT inhibition enhances in vitro responsiveness of HBV-specific CD8+ T cells to PD-1 blockade and increases the functional avidity of TCR-gene-modified T cells. Finally, ACAT regulates HBV particle genesis in vitro, with inhibitors reducing both virions and subviral particles. Thus, ACAT inhibition provides a paradigm of a metabolic checkpoint able to constrain tumours and viruses but rescue exhausted T cells, rendering it an attractive therapeutic target for the functional cure of HBV and HBV-related HCC

Does physical activity moderate the association between shorter leukocyte telomere length and incident coronary heart disease? Data from 54,180 UK Biobank participants

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer via the DOI in this recordData availability: Data used in this project are available via application to UK Biobank.Telomere shortening is a biological aging hallmark. The effect of short telomere length may be targeted by increased physical activity to reduce the risk of multiple aging-related diseases, including coronary heart disease (CHD). The objective was to assess the moderation effect of accelerometer-based physical activity (aPA) on the association between shorter leukocyte telomere length (LTL) relatively in the population sample and incident CHD. Data were from the UK Biobank participants with well-calibrated accelerometer data for at least 6.5 days (n = 54,180). Relative mean LTL at baseline (5-6 years prior to aPA assessment) was measured in T/S ratio, using a multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) technology, by comparing the amount of the telomere amplification product (T) to that of a single-copy gene (S). aPA measures included total number of events (at least 10-s continued physical activity > 32 milligravities [mg]), total volume, mean duration, mean intensity, and peak intensity of all events. LTL, aPA measures, and their interactions were associated with incident CHD (mean follow-up 6.8 years) using Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for covariates. Longer LTL (relative to the sample distribution) was associated with reduced incidence of CHD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.94 per standard deviation [SD] increase in LTL, [95% CI, 0.90 to 0.99], P = .010). Incidence of CHD was reduced by higher total volume of aPA (aHR = 0.82 per SD increase in LTL, [95% CI, 0.71 to 0.95], P = .010) but increased by higher total number of events (aHR = 1.11 per SD increase in LTL, [95% CI, 1.02 to 1.21], P = .020) after controlling for other aPA measures and covariates. However, none of the interactions between LTL and aPA measures was statistically significant (P = .171).National Institute of Nursing Research, National Institutes of Healt

Drug discovery for Chagas disease should consider Trypanosoma cruzi strain diversity.

This opinion piece presents an approach to standardisation of an important aspect of Chagas disease drug discovery and development: selecting Trypanosoma cruzi strains for in vitro screening. We discuss the rationale for strain selection representing T. cruzi diversity and provide recommendations on the preferred parasite stage for drug discovery, T. cruzi discrete typing units to include in the panel of strains and the number of strains/clones for primary screens and lead compounds. We also consider experimental approaches for in vitro drug assays. The Figure illustrates the current Chagas disease drug-discovery and development landscape

Equilibrium of Global Amphibian Species Distributions with Climate

A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a complete lineage across its entire distribution. We measure departures of equilibrium with contemporary climate for the distributions of the world amphibian species. Specifically, we fitted bioclimatic envelopes for 5544 species using three presence-only models. We then measured the proportion of the modeled envelope that is currently occupied by the species, as a metric of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. The assumption was that the greater the difference between modeled bioclimatic envelope and the occupied distribution, the greater the likelihood that species distribution would not be at equilibrium with contemporary climate. On average, amphibians occupied 30% to 57% of their potential distributions. Although patterns differed across regions, there were no significant differences among lineages. Species in the Neotropic, Afrotropics, Indo-Malay, and Palaearctic occupied a smaller proportion of their potential distributions than species in the Nearctic, Madagascar, and Australasia. We acknowledge that our models underestimate non equilibrium, and discuss potential reasons for the observed patterns. From a modeling perspective our results support the view that at global scale bioclimatic envelope models might perform similarly across lineages but differently across regions

Obstructive Sleep Apnea Alters Sleep Stage Transition Dynamics

Enhanced characterization of sleep architecture, compared with routine polysomnographic metrics such as stage percentages and sleep efficiency, may improve the predictive phenotyping of fragmented sleep. One approach involves using stage transition analysis to characterize sleep continuity.We analyzed hypnograms from Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS) participants using the following stage designations: wake after sleep onset (WASO), non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep, and REM sleep. We show that individual patient hypnograms contain insufficient number of bouts to adequately describe the transition kinetics, necessitating pooling of data. We compared a control group of individuals free of medications, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), medical co-morbidities, or sleepiness (n = 374) with mild (n = 496) or severe OSA (n = 338). WASO, REM sleep, and NREM sleep bout durations exhibited multi-exponential temporal dynamics. The presence of OSA accelerated the "decay" rate of NREM and REM sleep bouts, resulting in instability manifesting as shorter bouts and increased number of stage transitions. For WASO bouts, previously attributed to a power law process, a multi-exponential decay described the data well. Simulations demonstrated that a multi-exponential process can mimic a power law distribution.OSA alters sleep architecture dynamics by decreasing the temporal stability of NREM and REM sleep bouts. Multi-exponential fitting is superior to routine mono-exponential fitting, and may thus provide improved predictive metrics of sleep continuity. However, because a single night of sleep contains insufficient transitions to characterize these dynamics, extended monitoring of sleep, probably at home, would be necessary for individualized clinical application