Stratospheric PULSE–continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships: Interannual and interdecadal changes

Stratospheric processes and their role in weather and climate have attracted increasing interests. The correspondence between the occurrence of pulse-like, stronger stratospheric poleward warm airmass transport (PULSE) events and the continental-scale cold air outbreak (CAO) events in northern hemispheric winter is found to be unstable from year to year. This increases the difficulties in utilizing the more predictable stratospheric variability in the sub-seasonal forecasts of CAOs, which can cause cold hazards. Using the ERA5 reanalysis data covering 37 winters (November–March) in the period 1979–2015, this study categorizes the CAO events over mid-latitudes of Eurasia (CAO_EA) and those over North America (CAO_NA) into two groups: those coupled with and those decoupled with the PULSE events. The coupled CAOs are further categorized into events that are, respectively, lead-coupled and lag-coupled with PULSEs. The intensity and affected area of extremely cold temperatures tend to be larger during CAOs that are coupled with PULSEs, particularly during the CAO_NA events that are lag-coupled with PULSEs and the CAO_EA events that are lead-coupled with PULSEs. Remarkable interannual and interdecadal variations are observed in the percentage of CAOs that are coupled with PULSEs for each winter, which is an important reference for determining the window of opportunity for skillful sub-seasonal forecasts of CAO by using the stratospheric signals. At both interdecadal and interannual timescales, a warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in winter is favorable for the higher lag-coupling rate of CAO_NA and the lead-coupling rate of CAO_EA, and vice versa. The ENSO signals related to the interdecadal changes of the CAO coupling rate in winter can be traced back to the previous winter, while an ENSO phase transition from the previous winter to the current winter is closely related to the interannual changes of the CAO coupling rate

Effects of meridional sea surface temperature changes on stratospheric temperature and circulation

Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature (SST). The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could intensify the subtropical westerly jets and significantly weaken the northern polar vortex. In the model runs, global uniform SST increases produced a more significant impact on the southern stratosphere than the northern stratosphere, while SST gradient increases produced a more significant impact on the northern stratosphere. The asymmetric responses of the northern and southern polar stratosphere to SST meridional gradient changes were found to be mainly due to different wave properties and transmissions in the northern and southern atmosphere. Although SST increases may give rise to stronger waves, the results showed that the effect of SST increases on the vertical propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere will vary with height and latitude and be sensitive to SST meridional gradient changes. Both uniform and non-uniform SST increases accelerated the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), but the gradient increases of SST between 60°S and 60°N resulted in younger mean age-of-air in the stratosphere and a larger increase in tropical upwelling, with a much higher tropopause than from a global uniform 1.0 K SST increase. © 2014 Chinese National Committee for International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Science Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Relative Effects of the Greenhouse Gases and Stratospheric Ozone Increases on Temperature and Circulation in the Stratosphere over the Arctic

Using a stratosphere-resolving general circulation model, the relative effects of stratospheric ozone and greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase on the temperature and circulation in the Arctic stratosphere are examined. Results show that stratospheric ozone or GHGs increase alone could result in a cooling and strengthening extratropical stratosphere during February, March and April. However, the contribution of stratospheric ozone increases alone on the cooling and strengthening Arctic stratosphere is approximately 2 fold that of the GHGs increase alone. Model simulations suggested that the larger responses of the Arctic stratosphere to the ozone increase alone are closely related to the wave fluxes in the stratosphere, rather than the wave activity in the stratosphere. In response to the ozone increase, the vertical propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere into the mid-latitude stratosphere weakens, mainly contributed by its wavenumber-1 component. The impeded planetary waves tend to result from the larger zonal wind shear and vertical gradient of the buoyancy frequency. The magnitudes of anomalies in the zonal wind shear and buoyancy frequency in response to GHGs increase alone are smaller than in response to the ozone increase, which is in accordance with the larger contribution of stratospheric ozone to the temperature and circulation in the Arctic stratosphere

Brewer–Dobson Circulation: Recent-Past and Near-Future Trends Simulated by Chemistry-Climate Models

Based on data from 16 chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and separate experimental results using a state-of-the-art CCM, the trends in the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) during the second half of the 20th century (1960–2000) and the first half of the 21st century (2001–2050) are examined. From the ensemble mean of the CCMs, the BDC exhibits strengthening trends in both the 20th and 21st centuries; however, the acceleration rates of tropical upwelling and southern downwelling during 2001–2050 are smaller than those during 1960–2000, while the acceleration rate of the northern downward branch of the BDC during 2001–2050 is slightly larger than that during 1960–2000. The differences in the extratropical downwelling trends between the two periods are closely related to changes in planetary-wave propagation into the stratosphere caused by the combined effects of increases in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and changes in stratospheric ozone. Model simulations demonstrate that the response of southern downwelling to stratospheric ozone depletion is larger than that to the increase in GHGs, but that the latter plays a more important role in the strengthening of northern downwelling. This result suggests that, under the expected future climate, northern downwelling will play a more important role in balancing tropical upwelling

Outburst floods in China: A review

Outburst floods can have disastrous impacts on people, and are an important driving force in landscape change and have been studied widely on Earth. In China, although outburst floods have occurred frequently, there has been relatively little systematic investigation of the controlling factor. Here, we review outburst floods in China in terms of the characteristics, distribution, causes of dams and outburst floods. In terms of natural dams, landslides accounted for the majority (287 cases), followed by moraine dams (33 cases), which are mainly found on and around the Tibetan Plateau, and although other types (such as glacier and volcanic dams) were historically rare, many examples may be preserved in the geological record. In addition, there have been thousands of outburst floods from artificial-constructed dams, the majority of which were from small earth dams. The largest reliably recorded peak discharge for an outburst flood was 1.24 × 105 m3/s, which occurred in Yigong, Tibet. The peak discharge of the 1975 Banqiao collapse was 7.9 × 104 m3/s; the largest outburst flood of a man-made dam. Our recent investigations on the Yarlung Tsangpo in Southeast Tibet have identified gravel deposits that probably record megafloods and offer great potential for paleoflood analysis