Real Estate valuation and forecasting in non-homogeneous markets: A case study in Greece during the financial crisis

In this paper we develop an automatic valuation model for property valuation using a large database of historical prices from Greece. The Greek property market is an inefficient, nonhomogeneous market, still at its infancy and governed by lack of information. As a result modelling the Greek real estate market is a very interesting and challenging problem. The available data cover a wide range of properties across time and include the financial crisis period in Greece which led to tremendous changes in the dynamics of the real estate market. We formulate and compare linear and non-linear models based on regression, hedonic equations and artificial neural networks. The forecasting ability of each method is evaluated out-of-sample. Special care is given on measuring the success of the forecasts but also on identifying the property characteristics that lead to large forecasting errors. Finally, by examining the strengths and the performance of each method we apply a combined forecasting rule to improve forecasting accuracy. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology constitutes an accurate tool for property valuation in a non-homogeneous, newly developed market

Competition and the Operational Performance of Hospitals: The Role of Hospital Objectives

We examine the effect of a hospital's objective (i.e., non-profit versus for-profit) in hospital markets for elective care. Using game-theoretic analysis and queueing models to capture the operational performance of hospitals, we compare the equilibrium behavior of three market settings in terms of such criteria as waiting times and the total patient cost from waiting and hospital care payments. In the first setting, patients are served exclusively by a single non-profit hospital; in the second, patients are served by two competing non-profit hospitals. In our third setting, the market is served by one non-profit hospital and one for-profit hospital. A non-profit hospital provides free care to patients, although they may have to wait; for-profit hospitals charge a fee to provide care with minimal waiting. A comparison of the first two settings reveals that competition can hamper a hospital's ability to attain economies of scale and can also increase waiting times. A comparison between the second and third settings indicates that, when the public funder is not financially constrained, the presence of a for-profit sector may allow the funder to lower both the financial costs of providing coverage and the total costs to patients. Our analysis suggests that the public funder should exercise caution when using policy tools that support the for-profit sector -- for example, patient subsidies -- because such tools may increase patient costs in the long run; it might be preferable to raise the level of reimbursement to the non-profit sector

Vendor managed inventory versus order based fulfillment in a specialty chemical company

Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2006.Includes bibliographical references (leaf 59).In this thesis, an analysis of the existing order based fulfillment process for one product line of a specialty chemicals manufacturer is made and the potential benefits from the implementation of a vendor managed inventory (VMI) system are quantified. A single facility is considered and our focus is on the possible reductions in transportation effort. Initially, a set of criteria are defined for classifying which storage tanks will be served under the VMI system and which under the existing order based process. Subsequently, a cluster first-route second approach is implemented, where customer locations are first separated into clusters based on geographical proximity and routes are then designed for each of the clusters. A mathematical model is constructed that aids in the design of delivery routes that minimize the total number of delivery trips. Finally, the total transportation effort that would be required for replenishing the VMI and non-VMI tanks is estimated and a comparison is made with the current system. Key performance indicators are compared between the existing order based fulfillment process and the potential VMI implementation. Limitations of the proposed approach are discussed and directions for future research are highlighted.by Dimitrios Andritsos and Anthony Craig.M.Eng.in Logistic

Linking Process Quality and Resource Usage: An Empirical Analysis

International audienceMotivated by an increasing adoption of evidence-based medical guidelines in the delivery of medical care, we examine whether increased adherence to such guidelines (typically referred to as higher process quality) is associated with reduced resource usage in the course of patient treatment. In this study, we develop a sample of US hospitals and use cardiac care as our context to empirically examine our questions. To measure a patient's resource usage, we use the total length of stay, which includes any additional inpatient stay necessitated by unplanned readmissions within thirty days after initial hospitalization. We find evidence that higher process quality, and more specifically its clinical (as opposed to its administrative) dimensions, are associated with a reduction in resource usage. Moreover, the standardization of care that is achieved via the implementation of medical guidelines, makes this effect more pronounced in less focused environments: higher process quality is more beneficial when the cardiac department's patient population is distributed across a wider range of medical conditions. We explore the implications of these findings for process-oriented pay-for-performance programs, which tie the reimbursement of hospitals to their adherence to evidence-based medical guidelines

The impact of cross-border patient movement on the delivery of healthcare services

International audienceMotivated by a recent legislative discussion in the European Union about providing European patients with the freedom to choose the country they receive treatment, we use a queueing framework to analyze a game-theoretic model that captures the interactions among the patients, the providers, and the healthcare funders. We examine the impact of such "free choice" on the healthcare systems of different countries in equilibrium. Under the assumption that each patient will always prefer to receive care at home when the waiting time is below her individual tolerance level, we show that, in the long run, cross-border patient movement can increase patient welfare due to increased access to care. However, it has a mixed effect on waiting times and reimbursement rates. Moreover, the additional costs of increased access to care are disproportionately shared between the participating countries

Launching new products through exclusive sales channels

International audienceWhen launching a new product, a manufacturer usually sells it through competing retailers under non-exclusive arrangements. Recently, many new products (cellphones, electronics, toys, etc.) are sold through a single sales channel via an exclusive arrangement. In this paper we present two separate models that examine these two arrangements. Each model is based on a Stackelberg game in which the manufacturer acts as the leader by setting the wholesale price and the retailers act as the followers by choosing their retail prices. For each model, we solve the Stackelberg game by determining the manufacturer's optimal wholesale price and each retailer's optimal retail price in equilibrium. Then we examine the conditions under which the manufacturer should sell the new product through an exclusive retailer. In addition, we examine the impact of postponing the wholesale price decision and the impact of demand uncertainty on the manufacturer's optimal profit under both arrangements

Developing automated valuation models for estimating property values: a comparison of global and locally weighted approaches

International audienc

Αυτοματοποιημένα μοντέλα εκτίμησης αξιών ακινήτων στην ελληνική αγορά

Περίληψη: Η διατριβή αυτή παρουσιάζει αποτελέσματα σχετικά με την ελληνική αγορά ακινήτων και συγκεκριμένα σχετικά με τρόπους εκτίμησης τιμών ακινήτων και της χρήσης των μεθόδων αυτών σε διάφορα θέματα της οικονομίας. H διατριβή προτείνει και συγκρίνει διαφορετικές προσεγγίσεις μοντέλων αυτόματης εκτίμησης τιμών ακινήτων (automatic valuation models, AVM) καθώς και της χρησιμότητας τέτοιων μοντέλων σε συνδυασμό με τη μελέτη του κινδύνου της αγοράς ακινήτων

Developing automated valuation models for estimating property values: a comparison of global and locally weighted approaches

Summarization: Automated valuation models are widely used in real estate to provide estimates for property prices. Such models are typically developed through regression approaches. This study presents a comparative analysis about the performance of parametric and non-parametric regression techniques for developing reliable automated valuation models for residential properties. Different approaches are explored to incorporate spatial effects into the valuation process, covering both global and locally weighted models. The analysis is based on a large sample of properties from Greece during the period 2012–2016. The results demonstrate that linear regression models developed with a weighted spatial (local) scheme provide the best results, outperforming machine learning approaches and models that do not consider spatial effects.Presented on: Annals of Operations Researc