Using Mean Reversion as a Measure of Persistence

This paper elaborates on the alternative measure of persistence recently suggested in Marques (2004), which is based on the idea of mean reversion. A formal distinction between the “unconditional probability of a given process not crossing its mean in period t” and its estimator, is made clear and the relationship between this new measure and the widely used “sum of the autoregressive coefficients”, as alternative measures of persistence, is investigated. Using the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem, properties for the estimator of the new measure of persistence are established, which allow tests of hypotheses to be performed, under very general conditions. Finally, some Monte Carlo experiments are conducted in order to compare the finite sample properties of the estimator for the “unconditional probability of a given process not crossing its mean in period t” and the OLS estimator for the “sum of the autoregressive coefficients”.

Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence

This paper elaborates on the alternative measure of persistence recently suggested in Marques (2004), which is based on the idea of mean reversion. A formal distinction between the “unconditional probability of a given process not crossing its mean in period t” and its estimator, is made clear and the relationship between this new measure and the widely used “sum of the autoregressive coefficients”, as alternative measures of persistence, is investigated. Using the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem, properties for the estimator of the new measure of persistence are established, which allow tests of hypotheses to be performed, under very general conditions. Finally, some Monte Carlo experiments are conducted in order to compare the finite sample properties of the estimator for the “unconditional probability of a given process not crossing its mean in period t” and the OLS estimator for the “sum of the autoregressive coefficients”. JEL Classification: E31, C22, E52Inflation persistence, Mean reversion, non-parametric estimator

Choosing between time and state dependence: micro evidence on firms' price-reviewing strategies

Thanks to recent findings based on survey data, it is now well known that firms differ from each other with respect to their price-reviewing strategies. While some firms review their prices at fixed intervals of time, others prefer to perform price revisions in response to changes in economic conditions. In order to explain this fact, some theories have been suggested in the literature. However, empirical evidence on the relative importance of the factors determining firms’ different strategies is virtually nonexistent. This paper contributes to filling this gap by investigating the factors that explain why firms follow time-, state- or time- and state-dependent price-reviewing rules. We find that firms’ strategies vary with firm characteristics that have a bearing on the importance of information costs, the variability of the optimal price and the sensitivity of profits to non-optimal prices. Menu costs, however, do not seem to play a significant role. JEL Classification: C41, D40, E31information costs, menu costs, multinomial probit, Price stickiness, survey data

Measuring the Importance of the Uniform Nonsynchronization Hypothesis

In this paper we critically reappraise some measures of the importance of time-dependent price setting rules and propose an alternative way to gauge the significance of this type of price setting behaviour. The merits of the proposed measure are highlighted in an application using micro-data. Our results suggest that a large proportion of price trajectories may be compatible with simple time-dependent price setting mechanisms but the strength of this evidence very much depends on the way that is used to evaluate the importance of this type of behaviour.

A note on measuring the importance of the uniform nonsynchronization hypothesis

In this note we reappraise the measure of the importance of time-dependent price setting rules suggested by Klenow and Kryvtsov (2005, "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does It Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," Bank of Canada Working Paper 05-4). Furthermore, we propose an alternative way to gauge the significance of this type of price setting behavior, which can be interpreted as an upper bound for the proportion of price trajectories which are compatible with the uniform nonsynchronization hypothesis. The merits of the proposed measure are highlighted in an application using micro-data. Our results suggest that a large proportion of price trajectories may be compatible with simple time-dependent price setting mechanisms, but the strength of this evidence very much depends on the way that is used to evaluate the importance of this type of behavior.perfect synchronization.

Multi-Criteria versus Data Envelopment Analysis for Assessing the Performance of Biogas Plants

This paper compares multi-criteria decision aiding (MCDA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) approaches for assessing renewable energy plants, in order to determine their performance in terms of economic, environmental, and social criteria and indicators. The case is for a dataset of 41 agricultural biogas plants in Austria using anaerobic digestion. The results indicate that MCDA constitutes an insightful approach, to be used alternatively or in a complementary way to DEA, namely in situations requiring a meaningful expression of managerial preferences regarding the relative importance of evaluation aspects to be considered in performance assessment.Multi-criteria decision analysis; DEA; Renewable energy; Biogas