Search for the Higgs Boson: a Statistical Adventure of Exclusion and Discovery

The 40 years old Standard Model, the theory of particle physics, seems to describe all experimental data very well. All of its elementary particles were identified and studied apart from the Higgs boson until 2012. For decades many experiments were built and operated searching for it, and finally, the two main experiments of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN, CMS and ATLAS, in 2012 observed a new particle with properties close to those predicted for the Higgs boson. In this talk we describe the search process: the exclusion of the Higgs boson at LEP, the Large Electron Positron collider, and the observation at LHC of a new boson with properties close to those predicted for the Higgs boson of the Standard Model. We try to pay special attention on the statistical methods used.Comment: Plenary invited lecture at CCP-2013: XXV IUPAP Conference on Computational Physics, Landau Institute for Theoretical Physics, Moscow, Russia, 21 August 201

Contracts with Endogenous Information

I study covert information acquisition and reporting in a principal agent problem allowing for general technologies of information acquisition. When posteriors satisfy local versions of the standard First Order Stochastic Dominance and Concavity/Convexity of the Distribution Function conditions, a first-order approach is justified. Under the same conditions, informativeness and riskiness of reports are equivalent. High powered contracts, that make the agents informational rents more risky, are used to increase incentives for information acquisition, insensitive contracts are used to reduce incentives for information gathering. The value of information to the agent is always positive. The value of information to the principal is ambiguous.Asymmetric Information ; Mechanism Design ; Information Acquisition ; Stochastic Ordering ; Value of Information

Optimal Delegation

How should a principal delegate a task to an agent? This paper studies the choice of an agent's discretion as a contracting problem. We show that the agent's freedom of action can be used as an effective incentive device: the agent's initiative is determined by the discretion he has in decision making. Due to this incentive effect the relationship between the severity of the conflict of principal's and agent's interests and the agent's optimal discretion in decision making is potentially non-monotonic: it may be optimal to curtail a subordinate's authority over decision making even if there are no conflicting interests concerning that decision. Our theory provides a rationale for commonly observed phenomena such as ''demanding clear statements'' from advisors or ''imposing an innovation bias'' on an organizational structure.

GEOID '88: A gravimetric geoid for Canada

Using Stokes' formula, a gravimetric geoid was calculated for Canada. The input data are as follows: 15 x 15' block averages were used for Canada and the USA and 1 x 1 deg block averages and satellite model (GEM-T1) provided values for the remaining part of the Earth. The geoid was calculated at 6398 points covering the area within the points rho(sub i)(phi sub i; lambda sub i) (lambda is + west): rho sub 1(40,125); rho sub 2(75,184); rho sub 3(75,10); and rho sub 4(40,60). The computed geoid refers to the GRS1980 and reaches a local minimum of -47.3 meters around the western part of Hudson Bay. A contour map of the geoid is shown

Taxes and Employment Subsidies in Optimal Redistribution Programs (Revised Version)

This paper explores how to optimally set tax and transfers when taxation authorities : (1) are uninformed about individuals’ value of time in both market and non-market activities and (2) can observe both market-income and time allocated to market employment. We show that optimal redistribution in this environment involves distorting market employment upwards for low wage individuals through decreasing wage-contingent employment subsidies, and distorting employment downwards for high wage individuals through positive and increasing marginal income tax rates. In particular, we show that whether a person is taxed or subsidized depends primarily on his wage, that is, the optimal program involves a cut-off wage whereby workers above the cutoff are taxed as they increase their income, while workers earning a wage below the cutoff receive an income supplement (an earned income tax credit) as they increase their income. Finally, we show that the optimal program transfers zero income to individuals who choose not to work.Taxation ; Redistribution ; Wage Subsidies Screening

Technology transfer: an efficient means of knowledge flow

After the change in the political system, any necessary changes did not occur regarding many fields of the Hungarian economic and social life: after the millennium it started to lag behind the countries in East Central Europe, and in the increasingly growing competition it is forced to loose significant position. Defective decisions in field of economic policy resulted that the country became file-closer among altering economies. With the most significant macroeconomical indicators that are signed in the study, the loser Hungarian position is traceable.Предприятия сегодня более отзывчивы к техническому и технологическому прогрессу,управляют своими активами технологий более стратегически. Тем временем, решении технологий перешли к людям незнакомым с динамикой технологий в лаборатории или на рынке. Интеграция технологий и повторное их использование страдают, не координируя структуру или форумы планирования бизнеса. Решение, согласно некоторым, является методическим подходом к интегрированной технологии, планируя названный «Технологией Roadmapping», который получил более широкое развитие в прошлом десятилетии

Az asszír hadsereg = The assyrian army

A kutatási projektem alapvető célkitűzéseként az asszír hadseregnek, mint az asszír birodalmi expanzió legfontosabb eszközének rekonstrukcióját tűztem ki célul. Ennek első lépése az asszír hadsereg fegyvernemeinek, fegyverzetének, összetételének rekonstrukciója volt több, mint kétezer asszír palotadombormű katonaábrázolásai alapján. A munka első fázisa lezárult: a célkitűzésnek megfelelően elkészült (illetve publikálásra elfogadtatott) több olyan folyóiratcikk (lásd Közlemények menüpont), amelyek közül legalább kettő a kutatás fő eredményét a tervezett monográfiát készíti elő. Az angol nyelvű monográfia rajzai időre elkészültek, a szöveg csaknem nyomdakész állapotban van, nyelvi ellenőrzése folyik. Várható megjelenése 2007 második fele. Ugyanezen időszak alatt összegyűlt az az anyag, amelyből 2008-ban elkészülhet és megjelenhet a tervezett háromkötetes monográfia második kötete is. | The primary goal of my research project was the reconstruction of the Assyrian army, the most important instrument of the Assyrian imperial expansion. The first phase of the project was the reconstruction of the arms, armour, equipment and structure of the Assyrian army based on the representations of Assyrian soldiers depicted on more than two thousand Assyrian palace reliefs. The first phase of the project has already been accomplished: in accordance with the plan more (5) publications has been written (see the list of publications), two of which is cover part of the topic, and prepar the main goal of the project, the publication of a comprehensive monograph on "The Reconstruction of the Assyrian Army". The drawings (plates) of the English monograph has already been drawn, the date of publication is the second half of 2007. During the period of the project all the preliminary preparatory work for a second monograph discussing the written (cuneiform) sources dealing with Assyrian military activity has already been done

Real-time Modelling, Diagnostics and Optimised MPPT for Residential PV Systems

The work documented in the thesis has been focused into two main sections. The first part is centred around Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) techniques for photovoltaic arrays, optimised for fast-changing environmental conditions, and is described in Chapter 2. The second part is dedicated to diagnostic functions as an additional tool to maximise the energy yield of photovoltaic arrays (Chapter 4). Furthermore, mathematical models of PV panels and arrays have been developed and built (detailed in Chapter 3) for testing MPPT algorithms, and for diagnostic purposes.In Chapter 2 an overview of the today’s most popular MPPT algorithms is given, and, considering their difficulty in tracking under variable conditions, a simple technique is proposed to overcome this drawback. The method separates the MPPT perturbation effects from environmental changes and provides correct information to the tracker, which is therefore not affected by the environmental fluctuations. The method has been implemented based on the Perturb and Observe (P&O), and the experimental results demonstrate that it preserves the advantages of the existing tracker in being highly efficient during stable conditions, having a simple and generic nature, and has the benefit of also being efficient in fast-changing conditions. Furthermore, the algorithm has been successfully implemented on a commercial PV inverter, currently on the market. In Chapter 3, an overview of the existing mathematical models used to describe the electrical behaviour of PV panels is given, followed by the parameter determination for the five-parameter single-exponential model based on datasheet values, which has been used for the implementation of a PV simulator taking in account the shape, size ant intensity of partial shadow in respect to bypass diodes.In order to eliminate the iterative calculations for parameter determinations, a simplified three-parameter model is used throughout Chapter 4, dedicated to diagnostic functions of PV panels. Simple analytic expressions for the model important parameters, which could reflect deviations from the normal (e.g. from datasheet or reference measurement) I −V characteristic, is proposed.A considerable part of the thesis is dedicated to the diagnostic functions of crystalline photovoltaic panels, aimed to detect failures related to increased series resistance and partial shadowing, the two major factors responsible for yield-reduction of residential photovoltaic systems.Combining the model calculations with measurements, a method to detect changes in the panels’ series resistance based on the slope of the I − V curve in the vicinity of open-circuit conditions and scaled to Standard Test Conditions (STC) , is proposed. The results confirm the benefits of the proposed method in terms of robustness to irradiance changes and to partial shadows.In order to detect partial shadows on PV panels, a method based on equivalent thermal voltage (Vt) monitoring is proposed. Vt is calculated using the simplified three-parameter model, based on experimental curve. The main advantages of the method are the simple expression for Vt, high sensitivity to even a relatively small area of partial shadow and very good robustness against changes in series resistance.Finally, in order to quantify power losses due to different failures, e.g. partial shadows or increased series resistance, a model based approach has been proposed to estimate the panel rated power (in STC). Although it is known that the single-exponential model has low approximation precision at low irradiation conditions, using the previously determined parameters it was possible to achieve relatively good accuracy. The main advantage of the method is that it relies on already determined parameters (Rsm, Vt) based on measurements, therefore reducing the errors introduced by the limitation of the single-exponential model especially at low irradiation conditions

The Gyula Farkas memorial competition in the context of the Hungarian scientific competitions

Gyula Farkas (1847-1931) became a well-known scientist in his age due to his thermodynamic achievements, but today - after rediscovering his articles in 1950 - he is also noted as one of the founders of operation research. On the occasion of the 150th anniversary of his birth, his name became known beyond scientific circles. In this article, brief introduction into his life is given. The emphasis is put onto his achievements which provides modern context for efficient introduction of younger generations into the scientific world, and especially scientific methodology and interdisciplinary approaches.Gyula Farkas, sciences, thermodynamics, scientific competitions