601 research outputs found

    System integration of wind and solar power in Integrated Assessment Models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches

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    Mitigation-Process Integrated Assessment Models (MP-IAMs) are used to analyze long-term transformation pathways of the energy system required to achieve stringent climate change mitigation targets. Due to their substantial temporal and spatial aggregation, IAMs cannot explicitly represent all detailed challenges of integrating the variable renewable energies (VRE) wind and solar in power systems, but rather rely on parameterized modeling approaches. In the ADVANCE project, six international modeling teams have developed new approaches to improve the representation of power sector dynamics and VRE integration in IAMs. In this study, we qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the last years' modeling progress and study the impact of VRE integration modeling on VRE deployment in IAM scenarios. For a comprehensive and transparent qualitative evaluation, we first develop a framework of 18 features of power sector dynamics and VRE integration. We then apply this framework to the newly-developed modeling approaches to derive a detailed map of strengths and limitations of the different approaches. For the quantitative evaluation, we compare the IAMs to the detailed hourly-resolution power sector model REMIX. We find that the new modeling approaches manage to represent a large number of features of the power sector, and the numerical results are in reasonable agreement with those derived from the detailed power sector model. Updating the power sector representation and the cost and resources of wind and solar substantially increased wind and solar shares across models: Under a carbon price of 30$/tCO2 in 2020 (increasing by 5% per year), the model-average cost-minimizing VRE share over the period 2050–2100 is 62% of electricity generation, 24%-points higher than with the old model version

    Impact of plasma Lp-PLA2 activity on the progression of aortic stenosis : the PROGRESSA study.

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    Objectives : The purpose of this prospective study was to examine the relationship between plasma lipoprotein–associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) activity and the progression rate of aortic stenosis (AS). Background : We recently reported that Lp-PLA2 is highly expressed in stenotic aortic valves where it may contribute to the mineralization of valvular interstitial cells. Methods : Patients with AS were prospectively recruited in the PROGRESSA (Metabolic Determinants of the Progression of Aortic Stenosis) study. AS progression rate was assessed by annualized increase in peak aortic jet velocity (Vpeak), mean gradient (MG), and aortic valve area index (AVAi). Circulating Lp-PLA2 activity was measured and dichotomized based on the median value. Results : Of 183 patients included in this subanalysis of the PROGRESSA study, 70% were men and the mean age was 66 ± 13 years. Over the 2.5 ± 1.4 years of follow up, the AS progression rate tended to be higher in patients with high versus low Lp-PLA2 activity (annualized Vpeak = 0.17 ± 0.23 m/s vs. 0.12 ± 0.18 m/s; p = 0.14). There was a significant interaction (p < 0.05) between baseline AS severity and Lp-PLA2 activity with respect to impact on AS progression rate. In patients with mild AS (i.e., Vpeak <3 m/s; n = 123), increased Lp-PLA2 activity was associated with a significantly faster AS progression rate (Vpeak 0.16 ± 0.18 m/s vs. 0.09 ± 0.14 m/s; p = 0.01) but not in patients with moderate or severe AS (p = 0.99). After adjustment for other risk factors, increased Lp-PLA2 activity remained independently associated with faster AS progression rate (p = 0.005) in the former subset. Conclusions : There was no significant association between plasma Lp-PLA2 activity or mass and stenosis progression in the whole cohort. However, increased Lp-PLA2 activity was associated with a faster stenosis progression rate in the subset of patients with mild AS. These findings provide an impetus for the elaboration of a randomized trial targeting Lp-PLA2 activity in patients with early stages of calcific aortic valve disease

    Visceral adiposity and left ventricular mass and function in patients with aortic stenosis : the PROGRESSA study

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    Background : Recent studies have reported that obesity, metabolic syndrome, and diabetes are associated with left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy (LVH) and dysfunction in patients with aortic stenosis (AS). The purpose of this study was to examine the association between amount and distribution of body fat and LVH and systolic dysfunction in AS patients. Methods : One hundred twenty-four patients with AS were prospectively recruited in the PROGRESSA (Metabolic Determinants of the Progression of Aortic Stenosis) study and underwent Doppler echocardiography and computed tomography scan. Presence and severity of LVH was assessed according to LV mass indexed for height2.7 and LV dysfunction according to global longitudinal strain (GLS). Computed tomography was used to quantify abdominal visceral (VAT) and subcutaneous (SAT) adipose tissue, and total adipose tissue (TAT). Results : Body mass index (BMI) correlated strongly with TAT (r = 0.85), moderately with VAT (r = 0.70), and SAT (r = 0.69), and weakly with the proportion of VAT (VAT/TAT ratio: r = 0.19). In univariate analysis, greater BMI, TAT, VAT, SAT, and VAT/TAT were associated with increased LV mass index and greater VAT and VAT/TAT ratio were associated with reduced GLS. Multivariate analysis revealed that larger BMI (P < 0.0001) and greater VAT/TAT ratio (P = 0.01) were independently associated with higher prevalence of LVH, and only the VAT/TAT ratio (P = 0.03) was independently associated with reduced GLS. Conclusions : The results of this study suggest that total and visceral adiposity are independently associated with LVH in patients with AS. Furthermore, impairment of LV systolic function does not appear to be influenced by total obesity but is rather related to excess visceral adiposity. These findings provide impetus for elaboration of interventional studies aiming at visceral adiposity in the AS population.De rĂ©centes Ă©tudes ont rapportĂ© que l’obĂ©sitĂ©, le syndrome mĂ©tabolique et le diabĂšte Ă©taient associĂ©s Ă  l’hypertrophie (HVG) et Ă  la dysfonction ventriculaire gauche des patients souffrant d’une stĂ©nose aortique (SA). Le but de cette Ă©tude Ă©tait d’examiner le lien entre la quantitĂ© et la rĂ©partition de la graisse corporelle, l’HVG et la dysfonction systolique chez les patients souffrant d’une SA. MĂ©thodes : Cent vingt-quatre patients souffrant d’une SA ont Ă©tĂ© recrutĂ©s de maniĂšre prospective dans l’étude PROGRESSA (Metabolic Determinants of the Progression of Aortic Stenosis), et ont subi une Ă©chocardiographie Doppler et une tomodensitomĂ©trie. La prĂ©sence et la sĂ©vĂ©ritĂ© de l’HVG ont Ă©tĂ© Ă©valuĂ©es au moyen de la masse VG indexĂ©e par la taille2.7 et la dysfonction systolique du VG par la dĂ©formation longitudinale globale du VG (DLG). La tomodensitomĂ©trie a Ă©tĂ© utilisĂ©e pour quantifier le tissu adipeux abdominal viscĂ©ral (TAV) et sous-cutanĂ© (TAS), et le tissu adipeux total (TAT). RĂ©sultats : L’indice de masse corporelle (IMC) corrĂ©lait fortement avec le TAT (r = 0,85), modĂ©rĂ©ment avec le TAV (r = 0,70) et le TAS (r = 0,69), et faiblement avec la proportion de TAV (rapport TAV/TAT : r = 0,19). En analyse multivariĂ©e, des IMC, TAT, TAV, TAS et VAT/TAT plus Ă©levĂ©s Ă©taient associĂ©s Ă  une augmentation de la masse VG indexĂ©e et un TAV et un rapport TAV/TAT plus Ă©levĂ©s Ă©taient associĂ©s Ă  la rĂ©duction de la DLG. L’analyse multivariĂ©e a rĂ©vĂ©lĂ© qu’un IMC plus Ă©levĂ© (P < 0,0001) et un rapport TAV/TAT plus Ă©levĂ© (P = 0,01) Ă©taient indĂ©pendamment associĂ©s Ă  une HVG plus importante, et seul un rapport TAV/TAT Ă©tait indĂ©pendamment associĂ© Ă  une rĂ©duction de la DLG. Conclusions : Les rĂ©sultats de cette Ă©tude montrent que l’adipositĂ© totale et l'adipositĂ© viscĂ©rale sont indĂ©pendamment associĂ©es Ă  une HVG chez les patients souffrant d’une SA. De plus, la dĂ©tĂ©rioration de la fonction systolique VG ne semble pas ĂȘtre influencĂ©e par l’obĂ©sitĂ© totale, mais est plutĂŽt liĂ©e Ă  une adipositĂ© viscĂ©rale excessive. Ces rĂ©sultats incitent Ă  l’élaboration d’études interventionnelles visant l’adipositĂ© viscĂ©rale dans la population souffrant de SA

    Drugs Associated with More Suicidal Ideations Are also Associated with More Suicide Attempts

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    In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), some drugs, including CB1 antagonists for obesity treatment, have been shown to cause increased suicidal ideation. A key question is whether drugs that increase or are associated with increased suicidal ideations are also associated with suicidal behavior, or whether drug-induced suicidal ideations are unlinked epiphenomena that do not presage the more troubling and potentially irrevocable outcome of suicidal behavior. This is difficult to determine in RCTs because of the rarity of suicidal attempts and completions.To determine whether drugs associated with more suicidal ideations are also associated with more suicide attempts in large spontaneous adverse event (AE) report databases.Generalized linear models with negative binomial distribution were fitted to Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Event (AE) Reporting System (AERS) data from 2004 to 2008. A total of 1,404,470 AEs from 832 drugs were analyzed as a function of reports of suicidal ideations; other non-suicidal adverse reactions; drug class; proportion of reports from males; and average age of subject for which AE was filed. Drug was treated as the unit of analysis, thus the statistical models effectively had 832 observations.Reported suicide attempts and completed suicides per drug.832 drugs, ranging from abacavir to zopiclone, were evaluated. The 832 drugs, as primary suspect drugs in a given adverse event, accounted for over 99.9% of recorded AERS. Suicidal ideations had a significant positive association with suicide attempts (p<.0001) and had an approximately 131-fold stronger magnitude of association than non-suicidal AERs, after adjusting for drug class, gender, and age.In AE reports, drugs that are associated with increased suicidal ideations are also associated with increased suicidal attempts or completions. This association suggests that drug-induced suicidal ideations observed in RCTs plausibly represent harbingers that presage the more serious suicide attempts and completions and should be a cause for concern

    Advantages of the single delay model for the assessment of insulin sensitivity from the intravenous glucose tolerance test

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    The Minimal Model, (MM), used to assess insulin sensitivity (IS) from Intra-Venous Glucose-Tolerance Test (IVGTT) data, suffers from frequent lack of identifiability (parameter estimates with Coefficients of Variation (CV) less than 52%). The recently proposed Single Delay Model (SDM) is evaluated as a practical alternative
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