Application of an iterative framework for real-time railway rescheduling

Since disruptions in railway networks are inevitable, railway operators and infrastructure managers need reliable measures and tools for disruption management. Current literature on railway disruption management focuses most of the time on rescheduling one resource (timetable, rolling stock or crew) at the time. In this research, we describe the application of an iterative framework in which all these three resources are considered. The framework applies existing models and algorithms for rescheduling the individual resources. We extensively test our framework on instances from Netherlands Railways and show that schedules which are feasible for all three resources can be obtained within short computation times. This case study shows that the framework and the existing rescheduling approaches can be of great value in practice

Bayesian Data-Driven approach enhances synthetic flood loss models

Flood loss estimation models are developed using synthetic or empirical approaches. The synthetic approach consists of what-if scenarios developed by experts. The empirical models are based on statistical analysis of empirical loss data. In this study, we propose a novel Bayesian Data-Driven approach to enhance established synthetic models using available empirical data from recorded events. For five case studies in Western Europe, the resulting Bayesian Data-Driven Synthetic (BDDS) model enhances synthetic model predictions by reducing the prediction errors and quantifying the uncertainty and reliability of loss predictions for post-event scenarios and future events. The performance of the BDDS model for a potential future event is improved by integration of empirical data once a new flood event affects the region. The BDDS model, therefore, has high potential for combining established synthetic models with local empirical loss data to provide accurate and reliable flood loss predictions for quantifying future risk

Research capacity building integrated into PHIT projects: leveraging research and research funding to build national capacity

Background: Inadequate research capacity impedes the development of evidence-based health programming in sub-Saharan Africa. However, funding for research capacity building (RCB) is often insufficient and restricted, limiting institutions’ ability to address current RCB needs. The Doris Duke Charitable Foundation’s African Health Initiative (AHI) funded Population Health Implementation and Training (PHIT) partnership projects in five African countries (Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania and Zambia) to implement health systems strengthening initiatives inclusive of RCB. Methods: Using Cooke’s framework for RCB, RCB activity leaders from each country reported on RCB priorities, activities, program metrics, ongoing challenges and solutions. These were synthesized by the authorship team, identifying common challenges and lessons learned. Results: For most countries, each of the RCB domains from Cooke’s framework was a high priority. In about half of the countries, domain specific activities happened prior to PHIT. During PHIT, specific RCB activities varied across countries. However, all five countries used AHI funding to improve research administrative support and infrastructure, implement research trainings and support mentorship activities and research dissemination. While outcomes data were not systematically collected, countries reported holding 54 research trainings, forming 56 mentor-mentee relationships, training 201 individuals and awarding 22 PhD and Masters-level scholarships. Over the 5 years, 116 manuscripts were developed. Of the 59 manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals, 29 had national first authors and 18 had national senior authors. Trainees participated in 99 conferences and projects held 37 forums with policy makers to facilitate research translation into policy. Conclusion: All five PHIT projects strongly reported an increase in RCB activities and commended the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation for prioritizing RCB, funding RCB at adequate levels and time frames and for allowing flexibility in funding so that each project could implement activities according to their trainees’ needs. As a result, many common challenges for RCB, such as adequate resources and local and international institutional support, were not identified as major challenges for these projects. Overall recommendations are for funders to provide adequate and flexible funding for RCB activities and for institutions to offer a spectrum of RCB activities to enable continued growth, provide adequate mentorship for trainees and systematically monitor RCB activities. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-017-2657-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Data-driven quality improvement in low-and middle-income country health systems: lessons from seven years of implementation experience across Mozambique, Rwanda, and Zambia

Well-functioning health systems need to utilize data at all levels, from the provider, to local and national-level decision makers, in order to make evidence-based and needed adjustments to improve the quality of care provided. Over the last 7 years, the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation’s African Health Initiative funded health systems strengthening projects at the facility, district, and/or provincial level to improve population health. Increasing data-driven decision making was a common strategy in Mozambique, Rwanda and Zambia. This paper describes the similar and divergent approaches to increase data-driven quality of care improvements (QI) and implementation challenge and opportunities encountered in these three countries

An empirical approach to selecting community-based alcohol interventions:combining research evidence, rural community views and professional opinion

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Given limited research evidence for community-based alcohol interventions, this study examines the intervention preferences of rural communities and alcohol professionals, and factors that influence their choices.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Community preferences were identified by a survey of randomly selected individuals across 20 regional Australian communities. The preferences of alcohol professionals were identified by a survey of randomly selected members of the Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and Other Drugs. To identify preferred interventions and the extent of support for them, a budget allocation exercise was embedded in both surveys, asking respondents to allocate a given budget to different interventions. Tobit regression models were estimated to identify the characteristics that explain differences in intervention preferences.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Community respondents selected school programs most often (88.0%) and allocated it the largest proportion of funds, followed by promotion of safer drinking (71.3%), community programs (61.4%) and police enforcement of alcohol laws (60.4%). Professionals selected GP training most often (61.0%) and allocated it the largest proportion of funds, followed by school programs (36.6%), community programs (33.8%) and promotion of safer drinking (31.7%). Community views were susceptible to response bias. There were no significant predictors of professionals' preferences.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In the absence of sufficient research evidence for effective community-based alcohol interventions, rural communities and professionals both strongly support school programs, promotion of safer drinking and community programs. Rural communities also supported police enforcement of alcohol laws and professionals supported GP training. The impact of a combination of these strategies needs to be rigorously evaluated.</p

Evidence-based Kernels: Fundamental Units of Behavioral Influence

This paper describes evidence-based kernels, fundamental units of behavioral influence that appear to underlie effective prevention and treatment for children, adults, and families. A kernel is a behavior–influence procedure shown through experimental analysis to affect a specific behavior and that is indivisible in the sense that removing any of its components would render it inert. Existing evidence shows that a variety of kernels can influence behavior in context, and some evidence suggests that frequent use or sufficient use of some kernels may produce longer lasting behavioral shifts. The analysis of kernels could contribute to an empirically based theory of behavioral influence, augment existing prevention or treatment efforts, facilitate the dissemination of effective prevention and treatment practices, clarify the active ingredients in existing interventions, and contribute to efficiently developing interventions that are more effective. Kernels involve one or more of the following mechanisms of behavior influence: reinforcement, altering antecedents, changing verbal relational responding, or changing physiological states directly. The paper describes 52 of these kernels, and details practical, theoretical, and research implications, including calling for a national database of kernels that influence human behavior

Research capacity building integrated into PHIT projects: leveraging research and research funding to build national capacity

Background: Inadequate research capacity impedes the development of evidence-based health programming in sub-Saharan Africa. However, funding for research capacity building (RCB) is often insufficient and restricted, limiting institutions’ ability to address current RCB needs. The Doris Duke Charitable Foundation’s African Health Initiative (AHI) funded Population Health Implementation and Training (PHIT) partnership projects in five African countries (Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania and Zambia) to implement health systems strengthening initiatives inclusive of RCB. Methods: Using Cooke’s framework for RCB, RCB activity leaders from each country reported on RCB priorities, activities, program metrics, ongoing challenges and solutions. These were synthesized by the authorship team, identifying common challenges and lessons learned. Results: For most countries, each of the RCB domains from Cooke’s framework was a high priority. In about half of the countries, domain specific activities happened prior to PHIT. During PHIT, specific RCB activities varied across countries. However, all five countries used AHI funding to improve research administrative support and infrastructure, implement research trainings and support mentorship activities and research dissemination. While outcomes data were not systematically collected, countries reported holding 54 research trainings, forming 56 mentor-mentee relationships, training 201 individuals and awarding 22 PhD and Masters-level scholarships. Over the 5 years, 116 manuscripts were developed. Of the 59 manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals, 29 had national first authors and 18 had national senior authors. Trainees participated in 99 conferences and projects held 37 forums with policy makers to facilitate research translation into policy. Conclusion: All five PHIT projects strongly reported an increase in RCB activities and commended the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation for prioritizing RCB, funding RCB at adequate levels and time frames and for allowing flexibility in funding so that each project could implement activities according to their trainees’ needs. As a result, many common challenges for RCB, such as adequate resources and local and international institutional support, were not identified as major challenges for these projects. Overall recommendations are for funders to provide adequate and flexible funding for RCB activities and for institutions to offer a spectrum of RCB activities to enable continued growth, provide adequate mentorship for trainees and systematically monitor RCB activities. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-017-2657-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Delft-FIAT: An open-source flood impact analysis tool

Flood impacts, such as damage and casualties are increasingly important in flood risk management. Estimation of flood impacts enables policy makers to decide on the type of measures to reduce flood risk, and how much investment is warranted. A flexible, generic tool (Delft-FIAT) has been developed using Python, NumPy and GDAL to enable the quick set up a flood impact model in conjunction with the OGC WMS to visualize the results in maps. Delft-FIAT uses the unit loss method, which requires a combination of different data layers: (i) Flood hazard variables; (ii) land-use or objects information (location, type and maximum damage); and (iii) impact functions (usually relating some hazard variable e.g. water depth to an impact or damage fraction). The main advantage of this open-source tool is that it is flexible, as it can take up many different types of impact categories and these can be easily adjusted by the user. Moreover, it is efficient because the calculation engine can handle very large and high resolution input maps thanks to block division techniques in the input/output rasters and vector files. The presented tool is a good example of how open source geospatial software can contribute to environmental monitoring and in particular to flood risk simulations. The tool has already been applied in more than 10 flood risk studies around the world on different spatial scales. These studies show that Delft-FIAT enables researchers to focus on the data and impact knowledge rather than the calculation technology

Room for Rivers: Risk Reduction by Enhancing the Flood Conveyance Capacity of The Netherlands’ Large Rivers

The Netherlands has just finished implementing the Room for the Rivers program along the Rhine and Meuse Rivers in response to increasing river discharges. Recently, making more room for the river is, however, being challenged for future application because the flood defenses are assessed to be too weak and will need reinforcement anyway. To be able to decide on the most desirable policy for the remainder of the century, we require knowledge of all benefits and costs of individual interventions and strategic alternatives for flood mitigation. In this paper, we quantify some benefits of making more room for the rivers. We recognize and quantify two risk-reducing effects and provide results of analyses for the Rhine and Meuse Rivers in The Netherlands. Making room for rivers was originally advocated because it (1) reduces the consequences of flooding, as well as (2) reduces the probability of failure of the embankments. We have now quantified these effects allowing translation into risk reduction proper. Moreover, larger floodplain surface area may influence the relationship between discharge and flood level, which implies that rivers with widened floodplains are less sensitive to uncertainties about future river discharges. This does not reduce risk proper, but makes the river system more robust, as we shall argue in the discussion where we present risk reduction and robustness as complementary perspectives for assessing strategic alternatives for flood risk managementPolicy Analysi