Hot Property in New Zealand: Empirical Evidence of Housing Bubbles in the Metropolitan

Using recently developed statistical methods for testing and dating exhuberant behavior in asset prices we document evidence of episodic bubbles in the New Zealand property market over the past two decades. The results show clear evidence of a broad-based New Zealand housing bubble that began in 2003 and collapsed over mid 2007 to early 2008 with the onset of the worldwide recession and the financial crisis. New methods of analyzing market contagion are also developed and are used to examine spillovers from the Auckland property market to the other metropolitan centres. Evidence from the latest data reveals that the greater Auckland metropolitan area is currently experiencing a new property bubble that began in 2013. But there is no evidence yet of any contagion effect of this bubble on the other centres, in contrast to the earlier bubble over 2003-2008 for which there is evidence of transmission of the housing bubble from Auckland to the other centres. One of our primary conclusions is that the expensive nature of New Zealand real estate relative to potential earnings in rents is partly due to the sustained market exuberance that produced the broad based bubble in house prices during the last decade and that has continued through the most recent bubble experienced in the Auckland region since 2013

The economic effects of density: a synthesis

This paper synthesises the state of knowledge on the economic effects of density. We consider 15 outcome categories and 347 estimates of density elasticities from 180 studies. More than 100 of these estimates have not been previously published and have been provided by authors on request or inferred from published results in auxiliary analyses. We contribute own estimates of density elasticities of 16 distinct outcome variables that belong to categories where the evidence base is thin, inconsistent or non-existent. Along with a critical discussion of the quality and the quantity of the evidence base we present a set of recommended elasticities. Applying them to a scenario that roughly corresponds to an average high-income city, we find that in per-capita present value terms (at a 5% discount rate), a 1%-increase in density implies an increase in wage and rent of $280 and$347. The decrease in real wage net of taxes of $156 is partially compensated for by an aggregate amenity effect of$100 and there is a positive external welfare effect of $60

Hot property in New Zealand: Empirical evidence of housing bubbles in the metropolitan centres

Using recently developed statistical methods for testing and dating exuberant behaviour in asset prices we document evidence of episodic bubbles in the New Zealand property market over the past two decades. The results show clear evidence of a broad-based New Zealand housing bubble that began in 2003 and collapsed over mid-2007 to early 2008 with the onset of the worldwide recession and the financial crisis. New methods of analysing market contagion are also developed and are used to examine spillovers from the Auckland property market to the other metropolitan centres. Evidence from the latest data reveals that the greater Auckland metropolitan area is currently experiencing a new property bubble that began in 2013. But there is no evidence yet of any contagion effect of this bubble on the other centres, in contrast to the earlier bubble over 2003–2008 for which there is evidence of transmission of the housing bubble from Auckland to the other centres. One of our primary conclusions is that the expensive nature of New Zealand real estate relative to potential earnings in rents is partly due to the sustained market exuberance that produced the broad-based bubble in house prices during the last decade and that has continued through the most recent bubble experienced in the Auckland region since 2013.</p

Cities and climate change mitigation: Economic opportunities and governance challenges in Asia

Cities are central to the fight against climate change, but the IPCC recently noted that many cities — and particularly those in the developing world — lack the institutional, financial and technical capacities needed to switch to low emission development paths. Based on detailed case studies of three Asian cities, this paper finds that the adoption of low emission development strategies (LEDS) at the urban level could be economically attractive. However, it also argues that without a coordinated multi-level, cross-sectoral governance framework these opportunities for low carbon urban development are likely to be left unexploited. As these governance conditions are frequently not in place, we argue that these case study cities, and cities in similar contexts, are likely to miss even the economically attractive low carbon development opportunities and become increasingly locked in to higher cost, higher carbon development paths. Due to their growing size and importance, we conclude that the presence or absence of governance arrangements that enable the adoption of low carbon development strategies in Asian cities will have global implications for climate change

Rebel with a cause

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the cause and nature of the 2014 Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong and the role of the youth in the movement.Design/methodology/approachThis paper analyzes the relationship between the serious social and economic problems in Hong Kong, of which the youth often feel the greatest impact, and the demands for a real democratic system made by the Umbrella Movement. It examines the structural roots of the Movement and the role of youths in it.FindingsThe Umbrella Movement is not simply a movement of anger and frustration, but also a movement reflecting some of the serious and legitimate concerns of the people of Hong Kong, especially the youth, who have a high and growing sense of local identity and citizenship. The movement links the major policy and social problems of the post-Handover era to its root cause, which is an undemocratic political system combined with crony capitalism. Unfortunately, the approach taken by the government toward the Movement has been to emphasize its illegal nature and to attempt to divide the opposition by adopting “united front” strategies that pay no serious attention to the problems the Movement has raised. Eventually, this approach will only lead to an outcome of “strong government, weak society” where strong government action in opposition to reformers will weaken the cohesion of society and expose the actual weakness of the state that has no popular legitimacy, going on to create more chaos as a result of its weak governance.Originality/valueThis paper will help both scholars and policymakers to understand the structural and root causes of the Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong and explain why Hong Kong is suffering from a serious problem of weak governance

Programa de Encuestas de Fecundidad Para America Latina [PECFAL] - Urbano (M089V1)

Latin American fertility study conducted between 1964-66. The seven cities included in the study are Bogota, Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Caracas, Panama City, Rio de Janeiro, and San Jose (Costa Rica). The three largest Latin American cities included were Buenos Aires, Mexico and Rio de Janeiro. Medium sized cities were represented by Bogota and Caracas. The smallest cities included were Panama City and San Jose. Individuals surveyed were women, 20-50 years of age and all marital statuses. These city studies were conducted from 1964-66 in each country by national institutions with the design and supervision of the U.N. Demographic Training Center, CELADE, in Santiago. The Community and Family Study Center of the University of Chicago standardized the codes and the Population Council organized them into the present format. Topics included urbanization, levels and trends of fertility, attitudes and opinions toward desired family size and family planning, use of contraceptives, attitudes toward their use, and means of communicating about them. Additional demographic, economic, social and psychological details were also gathered.</p