How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts?

Seasonal forecasts of variables like near-surface temperature or precipitation are becoming increasingly important for a wide range of stakeholders. Due to the many possibilities of recalibrating, combining, and verifying ensemble forecasts, there are ambiguities of which methods are most suitable. To address this we compare approaches how to process and verify multi-model seasonal forecasts based on a scientific assessment performed within the framework of the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Quality Assurance for Multi-model Seasonal Forecast Products (QA4Seas) contract C3S 51 lot 3. Our results underpin the importance of processing raw ensemble forecasts differently depending on the final forecast product needed. While ensemble forecasts benefit a lot from bias correction using climate conserving recalibration, this is not the case for the intrinsically bias adjusted multi-category probability forecasts. The same applies for multi-model combination. In this paper, we apply simple, but effective, approaches for multi-model combination of both forecast formats. Further, based on existing literature we recommend to use proper scoring rules like a sample version of the continuous ranked probability score and the ranked probability score for the verification of ensemble forecasts and multi-category probability forecasts, respectively. For a detailed global visualization of calibration as well as bias and dispersion errors, using the Chi-square decomposition of rank histograms proved to be appropriate for the analysis performed within QA4Seas.The research leading to these results is part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (Framework Agreement number C3S_51_Lot3_BSC), a program being implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission. Francisco Doblas-Reyes acknowledges the support by the H2020 EUCP project (GA 776613) and the MINECO-funded CLINSA project (CGL2017-85791-R)

Methanogens, sulphate and heavy metals: a complex system

Anaerobic digestion (AD) is a well-established technology used for the treatment of wastes and wastewaters with high organic content. During AD organic matter is converted stepwise to methane-containing biogasa renewable energy carrier. Methane production occurs in the last AD step and relies on methanogens, which are rather sensitive to some contaminants commonly found in wastewaters (e.g. heavy metals), or easily outcompeted by other groups of microorganisms (e.g. sulphate reducing bacteria, SRB). This review gives an overview of previous research and pilot-scale studies that shed some light on the effects of sulphate and heavy metals on methanogenesis. Despite the numerous studies on this subject, comparison is not always possible due to differences in the experimental conditions used and parameters explained. An overview of the possible benefits of methanogens and SRB co-habitation is also covered. Small amounts of sulphide produced by SRB can precipitate with metals, neutralising the negative effects of sulphide accumulation and free heavy metals on methanogenesis. Knowledge on how to untangle and balance sulphate reduction and methanogenesis is crucial to take advantage of the potential for the utilisation of biogenic sulphide as a metal detoxification agent with minimal loss in methane production in anaerobic digesters.The research was financially supported by the People Program (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under REA agreement 289193