A typology of alcohol consumption among young people – A narrative synthesis

Background: Currently, alcohol consumption levels are significantly higher among younger age groups. However, previous research has noted the diversity of motivations and patterns. These patterns of drinking have yet to be synthesised into a typology. The aim of the current study was to synthesise information from studies that produced types of alcohol consumption among young people. Method: Quantitative and qualitative literature investigating the different types of drinkers among young people [aged 12–24 years], published in peer reviewed journals, were eligible for inclusion in this systematic review. MEDLINE, PsychInfo and CINAHL were systematically searched for relevant articles published between January 1st 2000 and December 31st 2014. Included papers were critically appraised. A narrative synthesis approach was employed based on guidance from the UK Economic and Social Research Council. Results: In total, 13 studies were eligible for inclusion: 11 quantitative, one qualitative and one mixed methods. Six classes of drinkers were formed within this typology. Abstainers reported no alcohol consumption. Light drinkers reported drinking small amounts of alcohol infrequently. In comparison, social and hedonistic drinkers drank most in social situations and to have fun. Heavy and harmful consumers reported increased volume and frequency of consumption including harmful consequences. Conclusion: Currently, policy makers are attempting to combat the high levels of harmful alcohol consumption among young people. The current typology provides guidance for targeted interventions in addition to a practical analytic tool in future research

Use of mixed methods designs in substance research: a methodological necessity in Nigeria

The utility of mixed methods (qualitative and quantitative) is becoming increasingly accepted in health sciences, but substance studies are yet to substantially benefit from such utilities. While there is a growing number of mixed methods alcohol articles concerning developed countries, developing nations are yet to embrace this method. In the Nigerian context, the importance of mixed methods research is yet to be acknowledged. This article therefore, draws on alcohol studies to argue that mixed methods designs will better equip scholars to understand, explore, describe and explain why alcohol consumption and its related problems are increasing in Nigeria. It argues that as motives for consuming alcohol in contemporary Nigeria are multiple, complex and evolving, mixed method approaches that provide multiple pathways for proffering solutions to problems should be embraced

Distinct genetic control of parasite elimination, dissemination, and disease after Leishmania major infection

Elimination of pathogens is the basis of host resistance to infections; however, relationship between persisting pathogens and disease has not been clarified. Leishmania major infection in mice is an important model of host–pathogen relationship. Infected BALB/c mice exhibit high parasite numbers in lymph nodes and spleens, and a chronic disease with skin lesions, splenomegaly, and hepatomegaly, increased serum IgE levels and cytokine imbalance. Although numerous gene loci affecting these disease symptoms have been reported, genes controlling parasites’ elimination or dissemination have never been mapped. We therefore compared genetics of the clinical and immunologic symptomatology with parasite load in (BALB/c × CcS-11) F2 hybrids and mapped five loci, two of which control parasite elimination or dissemination. Lmr5 influences parasite loads in spleens (and skin lesions, splenomegaly, and serum IgE, IL-4, and IFNγ levels), and Lmr20 determines parasite numbers in draining lymph nodes (and serum levels of IgE and IFNγ), but no skin or visceral pathology. Three additional loci do not affect parasite numbers but influence significantly the disease phenotype—Lmr21: skin lesions and IFNγ levels, Lmr22: IL-4 levels, Lmr23: IFNγ levels, indicating that development of L. major-caused disease includes critical regulations additional to control of parasite spread

Predicting drug pharmacokinetics and effect in vascularized tumors using computer simulation

In this paper, we investigate the pharmacokinetics and effect of doxorubicin and cisplatin in vascularized tumors through two-dimensional simulations. We take into account especially vascular and morphological heterogeneity as well as cellular and lesion-level pharmacokinetic determinants like P-glycoprotein (Pgp) efflux and cell density. To do this we construct a multi-compartment PKPD model calibrated from published experimental data and simulate 2-h bolus administrations followed by 18-h drug washout. Our results show that lesion-scale drug and nutrient distribution may significantly impact therapeutic efficacy and should be considered as carefully as genetic determinants modulating, for example, the production of multidrug-resistance protein or topoisomerase II. We visualize and rigorously quantify distributions of nutrient, drug, and resulting cell inhibition. A main result is the existence of significant heterogeneity in all three, yielding poor inhibition in a large fraction of the lesion, and commensurately increased serum drug concentration necessary for an average 50% inhibition throughout the lesion (the IC50 concentration). For doxorubicin the effect of hypoxia and hypoglycemia (“nutrient effect”) is isolated and shown to further increase cell inhibition heterogeneity and double the IC50, both undesirable. We also show how the therapeutic effectiveness of doxorubicin penetration therapy depends upon other determinants affecting drug distribution, such as cellular efflux and density, offering some insight into the conditions under which otherwise promising therapies may fail and, more importantly, when they will succeed. Cisplatin is used as a contrast to doxorubicin since both published experimental data and our simulations indicate its lesion distribution is more uniform than that of doxorubicin. Because of this some of the complexity in predicting its therapeutic efficacy is mitigated. Using this advantage, we show results suggesting that in vitro monolayer assays using this drug may more accurately predict in vivo performance than for drugs like doxorubicin. The nonlinear interaction among various determinants representing cell and lesion phenotype as well as therapeutic strategies is a unifying theme of our results. Throughout it can be appreciated that macroscopic environmental conditions, notably drug and nutrient distributions, give rise to considerable variation in lesion response, hence clinical resistance. Moreover, the synergy or antagonism of combined therapeutic strategies depends heavily upon this environment

Strain-Specific Differences in the Genetic Control of Two Closely Related Mycobacteria

The host response to mycobacterial infection depends on host and pathogen genetic factors. Recent studies in human populations suggest a strain specific genetic control of tuberculosis. To test for mycobacterial-strain specific genetic control of susceptibility to infection under highly controlled experimental conditions, we performed a comparative genetic analysis using the A/J- and C57BL/6J-derived recombinant congenic (RC) mouse panel infected with the Russia and Pasteur strains of Mycobacterium bovis Bacille Calmette Guérin (BCG). Bacillary counts in the lung and spleen at weeks 1 and 6 post infection were used as a measure of susceptibility. By performing genome-wide linkage analyses of loci that impact on tissue-specific bacillary burden, we were able to show the importance of correcting for strain background effects in the RC panel. When linkage analysis was adjusted on strain background, we detected a single locus on chromosome 11 that impacted on pulmonary counts of BCG Russia but not Pasteur. The same locus also controlled the splenic counts of BCG Russia but not Pasteur. By contrast, a locus on chromosome 1 which was indistinguishable from Nramp1 impacted on splenic bacillary counts of both BCG Russia and Pasteur. Additionally, dependent upon BCG strain, tissue and time post infection, we detected 9 distinct loci associated with bacillary counts. Hence, the ensemble of genetic loci impacting on BCG infection revealed a highly dynamic picture of genetic control that reflected both the course of infection and the infecting strain. This high degree of adaptation of host genetics to strain-specific pathogenesis is expected to provide a suitable framework for the selection of specific host-mycobacteria combinations during co-evolution of mycobacteria with humans

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed