Modelling Regional Maize Markets for Biogas Production in Germany : The Impact of Different Policy Options on Environment and Transport Emissions

The production of biogas is considered to be a promising candidate for a sustainable energy mix. Accordingly, Germany’s Renewable Energy Act (EEG) promotes electricity production from biogas along with other renewable energies. While overall benefits are seen in terms of climate protection and increased employment in rural areas, for example, biogas production (mainly from maize in Germany) also has the potential to create negative environmental effects on a regional scale. This can be caused by the production of monocultures and increasing transport volumes, to cite two prominent examples. To assess environmental effects arising from bioenergy policies, different types of agricultural models have been applied to determine the effects on competition for primary factors. Generally, these models do not however capture the demand side for crops with high transportation costs such as maize. The production of biogas is considered to be a promising candidate for a sustainable energy mix. Accordingly, Germany’s Renewable Energy Act (EEG) promotes electricity production from biogas along with other renewable energies. While overall benefits are seen in terms of climate protection and increased employment in rural areas, for example, biogas production (mainly from maize in Germany) also has the potential to create negative environmental effects on a regional scale. This can be caused by the production of monocultures and increasing transport volumes, to cite two prominent examples. To assess environmental effects arising from bioenergy policies, different types of agricultural models have been applied to determine the effects on competition for primary factors. Generally, these models do not however capture the demand side for crops with high transportation costs such as maize. Coupling ReSI-M with RAUMIS, a partial supply model which depicts German agriculture based on regionally differentiated processes, adds regional market clearing for a robust impact assessment of biogas production. As a result, policy implications on land use of different policy settings are analysed in this thesis. Furthermore, ReSI-M simulates regionally differing CO2 emissions from transports per kWhel (kilowatt hour electric), as well as the efficiency of subsidies for the policy scenarios. The results show that adding maize demand to an assessment of land use changes improves the representation of regional maize markets since regional demand characteristics such as transport costs and availability of inputs are taken into account. Simulation results indicate that under a scenario adopting feed-in tariffs according to the EEG 2004, less land for maize cultivation per kWhel is used and also less transport emissions are caused compared to the EEG 2008 and the counterfactual scenario. Furthermore, results point out differences in regional maize markets under the applied scenarios: under the EEG 2008 scenario, maize production increases in regions with high livestock densities, which therewith further intensifies maize production in regions where the production level is already high. Applying the counterfactual scenario shows that production increases in regions with low transport costs. However, under the EEG 2008 the greatest amount of energy from biogas is produced and most subsidies per produced kWhel are paid. The efficiency of subsidies is best in the counterfactual scenario, in which feed-in tariffs are paid independent of plant size and technology. Against these results, the thesis concludes with policy recommendations and suggestions for further research. The work provides a tool for policymakers to evaluate distinct regional demand levels for maize and its environmental impacts while the work also contributes to an ongoing political debate of the benefits and drawbacks of bioenergy production.Modellierung regionaler Maismärkte zur Biogasproduktion in Deutschland - Der Einfluss verschiedener Politikoptionen auf die Umwelt und Transportemissionen Die Produktion von Biogas wird als vielversprechende Option innerhalb eines nachhaltigen Energiemixes angesehen, und dementsprechend wird in Deutschland die Produktion von Biogas zusammen mit anderen erneuerbaren Energien durch das Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) gefördert. Während Vorteile für den Klimaschutz und ländliche Entwicklung gesehen werden, birgt die Produktion von Biogas (in Deutschland hauptsächlich auf der Basis von Silomais) die Gefahr, negative Umwelteffekte wie beispielsweise den Anbau von Mais in Monokulturen und steigende Transportaufkommen auf regionaler Ebene zu verursachen. Zur Bewertung von Umwelteffekten, die durch unterschiedliche Bioenergiepolitiken entstehen, wurden verschiedene agrarökonomische Modelle angewandt, um Auswirkungen auf den Wettbewerb von Einsatzfaktoren zu erfassen. Diese Modelle bilden die Nachfrageseite von Pflanzen mit hohen Transportkosten, wie beispielsweise Silomais, jedoch nicht ab. Basierend auf der Standorttheorie und vor dem Hintergrund bestehender Standortmodelle, wird im Laufe der Dissertation ein neues Modell entwickelt, um Standorte und Größen von Biogasanlagen zu bestimmen und somit deren Maisnachfrage abzuleiten. Das Standortmodell ReSI-M (Regionalsiertes Standortinformationsmodell – Mais) ermöglicht es regionale Nachfrage-funktionen für Silomais als eine Funktion von Silomaispreisen und weiteren Erklärungsvariablen wie Transportkosten und wirtschaftliche Profitabilität von verschieden Biogasanlagentypen abzuleiten. Es simuliert Nachfragefunktionen für drei Politikszenarien: das EEG 2004, das EEG 2008 mit entsprechenden Einspeisevergütungen, und außerdem ein fiktives Szenario („counterfactual scenario―), in dem Einspeisevergütungen unabhängig von Anlagengröße und –technologie gezahlt werden. Das letzere Szenario wird angewandt, um die EEG Szenarien mit einer Situation zu vergleichen, in welcher die resultierende Anlagenstruktur theoretisch einer kostenminimalen Lösung entspricht. Durch das Koppeln von ReSI-M mit RAUMIS, einem partiellen Angebotsmodell, das den deutschen Agrarsektor regional differenziert abbildet, wird eine regionale Markträumung einer Folgenabschätzung der Biogasproduktion hinzugefügt. Somit werden in dieser Dissertation Politikauswirkungen auf Landnutzung und resultierende Umwelteffekte analysiert. So werden mit ReSI-M regional unterschiedliche CO2 Transportemissionen pro kWhel (Kilowattstunden elektrisch) und die Effizienz von Subventionen für die Politikszenarien simuliert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine Ergänzung der Maisnachfrage innerhalb einer Bewertung von Landnutzungsänderungen, die Abbildung von regionalen Maismärkten verbessert, da regionale Charakteristika auf der Nachfrageseite, wie Transportkosten und die Verfügbarkeit von Einsatzstoffen, berücksichtigt werden. Simulationsergebnisse weisen darauf hin, dass unter dem EEG 2004 Szenario die geringste Landfläche pro kWhel benötigt wird und weniger Transportemissionen im Vergleich zu dem EEG 2008 und dem fiktiven Szenario verursacht werden. Zudem stellen die Ergebnisse Unterschiede der regionalen Maismärkte bei den verschiedenen Szenarien heraus: unter dem EEG 2008 Szenario steigt die Maisproduktion vor allem in Regionen mit einer hohen Viehdichte an und verstärkt somit den Maisanbau in Regionen, wo er für den Futteranbau bereits hoch ist. Die Anwendung des fiktiven Szenarios zeigt, dass sich die Produktion in Regionen mit geringen Transportkosten ausdehnt. Dabei handelt es sich vornehmlich um Ackerbauregionen. Unter dem EEG 2008 wird jedoch die meiste Energiemenge produziert und die meisten Subventionen pro kWhel gezahlt. Die Effizienz der Subventionen ist hingegen im fiktiven Szenario am besten. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser Ergebnisse, schließt diese Dissertation mit Politikempfehlungen und Vorschlägen für weiteren Forschungsbedarf. Die Arbeit stellt ein Instrument für Entscheidungsträger vor, das dabei hilft, unterschiedliche regionale Maismärkte und deren Umwelteffekte zu bewerten und trägt somit zu der aktuellen politischen Debatte über die Vor- und Nachteile der Förderung von Bioenergie bei

Modelling regional maize market and transport distances for biogas production in Germany

Our location model aims to simulate location decisions for biogas plants based on profit maximisation to generate regional demand functions for maize and corresponding plant size structure and transport distances. By linking it with an agricultural sector model we derived regional maize markets. Comparing results for the REA with a scenario applying uniform per unit subsidy and producing the same energy, we see higher subsidy costs with the REA but lower transportation distances.Biogas, environmental effects, transport costs, choice of location, Agricultural Finance, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Towards a certification of biomass: Feasibility of a certifications scheme of sustainability standards for trade and production of bioethanol in Brazil

Bioenergy produced from biomass is increasingly used to substitute fossil energy sources. Trade of biomass is expected to increase in the following years due to disparities in production costs and potentials in countries and regions. In this paper the possibility of a certification scheme for minimizing negative socio-ecological impacts and for increasing a sustainable production of biomass is discussed, taking Brazilian bioethanol as an example. This case-study comes up with a first set of feasible sustainability standards for Brazilian bioethanol and discusses issues to be considered when developing sustainability standards. At the same time problematic aspects are identified. When incorporating opinions of different stakeholders, the setting of sustainability standards holds the inherent danger of being used as non-tariff trade barriers. This leads to the need for a regionalisation of sustainability standards and raises questions on structure and level of a certification scheme.certification, sustainability standards, bioethanol, Environmental Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, F18, Q24,

Global cropland could be almost halved: Assessment of land saving potentials under different strategies and implications for agricultural markets

The pressure on land resources continuously increases not only with the rising demand for agricultural commodities, but also with the growing need for action on global challenges, such as biodiversity loss or climate change, where land plays a crucial role. Land saving as a strategy, where agricultural productivity is increased to allow a reduction of required cropland while sustaining production volumes and meeting demand, could address this trade-off. With our interdisciplinary model-based study, we globally assess regional potentials of land saving and analyze resulting effects on agricultural production, prices and trade. Thereby, different land saving strategies are investigated that (1) minimize required cropland (2) minimize spatial marginalization induced by land saving and (3) maximize the attainable profit. We find that current cropland requirements could be reduced between 37% and 48%, depending on the applied land saving strategy. The generally more efficient use of land would cause crop prices to fall in all regions, but also trigger an increase in global agricultural production of 2.8%. While largest land saving potentials occur in regions with high yield gaps, the impacts on prices and production are strongest in highly populated regions with already high pressure on land. Global crop prices and trade affect regional impacts of land saving on agricultural markets and can displace effects to spatially distant regions. Our results point out the importance of investigating the potentials and effects of land saving in the context of global markets within an integrative, global framework. The resulting land saving potentials can moreover reframe debates on global potentials for afforestation and carbon sequestration, as well as on how to reconcile agricultural production and biodiversity conservation and thus contribute to approaching central goals of the 21st century, addressed for example in the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement or the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

Scenarios for an impact assessment of global bioeconomy strategies: Results from a co-design process

The replacement of fossil resources with renewable biomass in a bioeconomy is seen as a major contribution to climate change mitigation. This transformation will affect all members of society, making it crucial to consider the views of different stakeholders to ensure a socially acceptable transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy. To explore potential outcomes of bioeconomy strategies assuming different future pathways, a scenario analysis is a tool to inform decision-makers about policy impacts and trade-offs. The inter- and transdisciplinary research project "BioNex - The future of the biomass nexus" is the first project to develop bioeconomy scenarios together with stakeholders from politics, industry, and civil society in an iterative co-design process. As a result, three storylines describing diverging potential global futures are developed and quantified: Towards sustainability, business as usual, and towards resource depletion. The futures are driven by different assumptions on climate policy, cropland expansion, productivity growth in agriculture, prices of fossil energy, and consumption behaviour. Additionally, in the co-design process, three bioeconomy policies are developed: policy as usual, stronger development of the bioeconomy, and no policies. Besides presenting the results of the stakeholder workshops, this paper evaluates the strengths and shortcomings of a stakeholder approach in terms of policy-oriented research. According to the experience made within this study, it provides valuable insights for researchers and funding authorities they can use to optimise the employment of stakeholder-based research approaches

Research priorities for global food security under extreme events

Extreme events threaten the production and supply of food around the world. They create cascading and systemic impacts posing significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. However, research teams and policymakers are not tackling these connections and are developing solutions in isolation. We bring together experts to prioritize threats to global food security from extreme events as well as research. Our findings illustrate the importance of coordinated design, adoption, and governance of food systems for resilience

Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity

With rising demand for biomass, cropland expansion and intensification represent the main strategies to boost agricultural production, but are also major drivers of biodiversity decline. We investigate the consequences of attaining equal global production gains by 2030, either by cropland expansion or intensification, and analyse their impacts on agricultural markets and biodiversity. We find that both scenarios lead to lower crop prices across the world, even in regions where production decreases. Cropland expansion mostly affects biodiversity hotspots in Central and South America, while cropland intensification threatens biodiversity especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, India and China. Our results suggest that production gains will occur at the costs of biodiversity predominantly in developing tropical regions, while Europe and North America benefit from lower world market prices without putting their own biodiversity at risk. By identifying hotspots of potential future conflicts, we demonstrate where conservation prioritization is needed to balance agricultural production with conservation goals

Modelling consumption and constructing long-term baselines in final demand

Modelling and projecting consumption, investment and government demand by detailed commodities in CGE models poses many data and methodological challenges. We review the state of knowledge of modelling consumption of commodities (price and income elasticities and demographics), as well as the historical trends that we should be able to explain. We then discuss the current approaches taken in CGE models to project the trends in demand at various levels of commodity disaggregation. We examine the pros and cons of the various approaches to adjust parameters over time or using functions of time and suggest a research agenda to improve modelling and projection. We compare projections out to 2050 using LES, CES and AIDADS functions in the same CGE model to illustrate the size of the differences. In addition, we briefly discuss the allocation of total investment and government demand to individual commodities

Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification

Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification