Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective

New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been extensively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macroeconomic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check identification requires specifying the process for the forcing variables (typically the output gap) and solving the model for inflation in terms of the observables. In practice, the equation is estimated by GMM, relying on statistical criteria to choose instruments. This may result in failure of identification or weak instruments. Secondly, the NKPC is usually derived as a part of a DSGE model, solved by log-linearising around a steady state and the variables are then measured in terms of deviations from the steady state. In practice the steady states, e.g. for output, are usually estimated by some statistical procedure such as the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter that might not be appropriate. Thirdly, there are arguments that other variables, e.g.interest rates, foreign inflation and foreign output gaps should enter the Phillips curve. This paper examines these three issues and argues that all three benefit from a global perspective. The global perspective provides additional instruments to alleviate the weak instrument problem, yields a theoretically consistent measure of the steady state and provides a natural route for foreign inflation or output gap to enter the NKPC.Global VAR (GVAR), identification, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Trend-Cycle decomposition

Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model

This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate equation. The IS equation includes a real exchange rate variable and a country-specific foreign output variable to capture direct inter-country linkages. In accord with the theory all variables are measured as deviations from their steady states, which are estimated as long-horizon forecasts from a reduced-form cointegrating global vector autoregression. The resulting rational expectations model is then estimated for 33 countries on data for 1980Q1-2006Q4, by inequality constrained IV, using lagged and contemporaneous foreign variables as instruments, subject to the restrictions implied by the NK theory. The multi-country DSGE NK model is then solved to provide estimates of identified supply, demand and monetary policy shocks. Following the literature, we assume that the within country supply, demand and monetary policy shocks are orthogonal, though shocks of the same type (e.g. supply shocks in different countries) can be correlated. We discuss estimation of impulse response functions and variance decompositions in such large systems, and present estimates allowing for both direct channels of international transmission through regression coefficients and indirect channels through error spillover effects. Bootstrapped error bands are also provided for the cross country responses of a shock to the US monetary policy.global VAR (GVAR), New Keynesian DSGE models, supply shocks, demand shocks, monetary policy shocks

Social Entrepreneurship and Broader Theories: Shedding New Light on the “Bigger Picture”

This article documents the results of a research workshop bringing together six perspectives on social entrepreneurship. The idea was to challenge existing concepts of the economy, the firm, and entrepreneurship in order to shed new light on social entrepreneurship and on our existing theoretical frameworks. The first two contributions use a macro-perspective and discuss the notion of adaptive societies and the tragedies of disharmonization, respectively. Taking a management perspective, the next two focus on the limits of conventional assumptions in management theory, particularly human capital theory and resource-based view. The final two contributions follow an entrepreneurship perspective highlighting the usefulness of mobilization theory and the business model lens to social entrepreneurship. Despite this diversity, all contributions share the fact that they challenge narrow definitions of the unit of analysis in social entrepreneurship; they illustrate the aspect of social embeddedness, and they argue for an open-but-disciplined diversity of theories in social entrepreneurship research

S.6.1 β-catenin is a central mediator in SSc

Background. β-catenin is the central integrator of canonical Wnt signalling. Since recent evidence suggests a central role of Wnts in fibrosis, we examined the β-catenin/Wnt pathway in SSc and focused on the role of β-catenin in fibroblast activation. Methods. We performed qPCR for several Wnt ligands and axin-2 to examine Wnt expression in SSc skin. We further studied protein levels of Wnt-1, -4, -10b and β-catenin by IHC. To establish the effects of β-catenin/Wnt signalling on collagen release, we created mice with fibroblast-specific stabilization of β-catenin (dEx3 β-catenin (wt/fl) × Col1a2; Cre-ER) as well as mice carrying fibroblast-specific deletion of β-catenin [Ctnnb1(fl/fl) × Col1a2; Cre-ER]. Summary of the results. We could demonstrate mRNA overexpression of Wnt-1, -2, -9a, -9b, -10a, -10b and -16 in SSc skin. Wnt-1, -4 and -10b consistently showed strong expression in SSc skin when compared with healthy skin. On protein level, however, Wnt-4 was indistinguishable between SSc patients and healthy controls, whereas Wnt-1 and Wnt-10b protein levels were increased in SSc skin. The overexpression of Wnt-1 and Wnt-10b resulted in a prominent nuclear accumulation of β-catenin in fibroblasts. Finally, increased mRNA levels of the target gene axin-2 confirmed the activation of canonical Wnt signalling. In dEx3 β-catenin (wt/ex) mice, we addressed the consequences of enhanced Wnt signalling and increased accumulation of β-catenin in SSc. We selectively targeted β-catenin in fibroblasts. Cre-activated dEx3 β-catenin (wt/fl) × Col1a2; Cre-ER mice showed massive and spontaneous dermal thickening even 2 weeks after Cre activation. Eight weeks after Cre-activation, skin thickening cumulated at 102.6% (P < 0.001). In line with the dermal thickening, hydroxyproline content and myofibroblast counts showed strong increases. To test the therapeutic potential of targeting β-catenin/Wnt signaling, we created Ctnnb1(fl/fl) x Col1a2;Cre-ER mice to specifically delete β-catenin in fibroblasts. After Cre activation and β-catenin deletion in fibroblasts, mice were challenged with bleomycin subcutaneously for 4 weeks. We found that Cre-activated Ctnnb1(fl/fl) × Col1a2; Cre-ER mice were protected from bleomycin-induced dermal with a reduction of skin thickening by 71% (P < 0.05). Conclusions. We demonstrated a prominent activation of canonical Wnt signalling in SSc with nuclear accumulation of β-catenin in fibroblasts and activation of the target gene axin-2. Our results showed that fibroblast-specific stabilization of β-catenin resulted in enhanced collagen release, whereas deletion of β-catenin potently reduced collagen production. Together, our findings highlight a key role of β-catenin in fibroblast activation and fibrosis. Thus, β-catenin may be promising molecular target for anti-fibrotic therapie

Position-sensitive detection of ultracold neutrons with an imaging camera and its implications to spectroscopy

Position-sensitive detection of ultracold neutrons (UCNs) is demonstrated using an imaging charge-coupled device (CCD) camera. A spatial resolution less than 15 $\mu$m has been achieved, which is equivalent to an UCN energy resolution below 2 pico-electron-volts through the relation $\delta E = m_0g \delta x$. Here, the symbols $\delta E$, $\delta x$, $m_0$ and $g$ are the energy resolution, the spatial resolution, the neutron rest mass and the gravitational acceleration, respectively. A multilayer surface convertor described previously is used to capture UCNs and then emits visible light for CCD imaging. Particle identification and noise rejection are discussed through the use of light intensity profile analysis. This method allows different types of UCN spectroscopy and other applications.Comment: 12 figures, 28 pages, accepted for publication in NIM

Social Entrepreneurship and Social Business: Retrospective and Prospective Research

Ye

Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) Surrogate Models for Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) Performance Assessment

The primary purpose of the multiPOST tool is to enable the execution of much larger sets of vehicle cases to allow for broader trade space exploration. However, this exploration is not achieved solely with the increased case throughput. The multiPOST tool is applied to carry out a Design of Experiments (DOE), which is a set of cases that have been structured to capture a maximum amount of information about the design space with minimal computational effort. The results of the DOE are then used to fit a surrogate model, ultimately enabling parametric design space exploration. The approach used for the MAV study includes both DOE and surrogate modeling. First, the primary design considerations for the vehicle were used to develop the variables and ranges for the multiPOST DOE. The final set of DOE variables were carefully selected in order to capture the desired vehicle trades and take into account any special considerations for surrogate modeling. Next, the DOE sets were executed through multiPOST. Following successful completion of the DOE cases, a manual verification trial was performed. The trial involved randomly selecting cases from the DOE set and running them by hand. The results from the human analyst's run and multiPOST were then compared to ensure that the automated runs were being executed properly. Completion of the verification trials was then followed by surrogate model fitting. After fits to the multiPOST data were successfully created, the surrogate models were used as a stand-in for POST2 to carry out the desired MAV trades. Using the surrogate models in lieu of POST2 allowed for visualization of vehicle sensitivities to the input variables as well as rapid evaluation of vehicle performance. Although the models introduce some error into the output of the trade study, they were very effective at identifying areas of interest within the trade space for further refinement by human analysts. The next section will cover all of the ground rules and assumptions associated with DOE setup and multiPOST execution. Section 3.1 gives the final DOE variables and ranges, while section 3.2 addresses the POST2 specific assumptions. The results of the verification trials are given in section 4. Section 5 gives the surrogate model fitting results, including the goodness-of-fit metrics for each fit. Finally, the MAV specific results are discussed in section 6