An integrated decision support tool for the prediction and evaluation of efficiency, environmental impact and total social cost of forestry projects in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol

For the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, governments of annex I countries need to develop strategies and policies for greenhouse gas reduction. Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) offer CO2 emission reduction opportunities both home and abroad. Selection of effective forestry opportunities is a complex decision process based on multiple information concerning the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential, the environmental impacts and the cost efficiency of potential scenarios. In this paper, a decision support framework to evaluate forestry scenarios for greenhouse gas emission reduction was presented and tested on five different scenarios (existing and new multifunctional forest in Flanders, Belgium, energy crop with short rotation poplar, energy crop with annually harvested Miscanthus, forest plantation in the subtropics, and conservation of tropical rainforest). The framework is organized as a serial connection of a carbon accounting module, an environmental module and an economic module. Modules include a combination of models and quantitative assessments procedures. In order to make scenarios comparable, the environmental and economic modules calculate their outputs on a functional unit basis of 1 ton CO2 emission reduction. The framework is universally applicable, straightforward, transparent and quantitative. Data requirements are medium, but applicability is fairly complex due to the interdisciplinary character of the tool. Further developments would require automated data flows between models and a user interface. As to the results of the scenario analysis, the only attractive possibility for sinks in Flanders is the establishment of new multifunctional forests. This even yields a net benefit because it replaces the generally loss-making agriculture and, in addition, yields other environmental and recreational benefits. The establishment of bioenergy plantations is a very efficient way of reducing CO2 as far as land occupation and environmental impacts are concerned. However, it also turns out to be a very expensive option. Plantation forestry in the tropics is advantageous when evaluated over longer periods of time. Conservation of tropical forest does not come into consideration as a CDM project, but is nevertheless economically attractive for Flanders since the cost per ton CO2 emission reduction is in the neighborhood of the world market price.CO2 emission reduction, carbon balance, Life Cycle Assessment, Land use impact, Cost benefit analysis

KEYLINK: towards a more integrative soil representation for inclusion in ecosystem scale models. I. review and model concept

The relatively poor simulation of the below-ground processes is a severe drawback for many ecosystem models, especially when predicting responses to climate change and management. For a meaningful estimation of ecosystem production and the cycling of water, energy, nutrients and carbon, the integration of soil processes and the exchanges at the surface is crucial. It is increasingly recognized that soil biota play an important role in soil organic carbon and nutrient cycling, shaping soil structure and hydrological properties through their activity, and in water and nutrient uptake by plants through mycorrhizal processes. In this article, we review the main soil biological actors (microbiota, fauna and roots) and their effects on soil functioning. We review to what extent they have been included in soil models and propose which of them could be included in ecosystem models. We show that the model representation of the soil food web, the impact of soil ecosystem engineers on soil structure and the related effects on hydrology and soil organic matter (SOM) stabilization are key issues in improving ecosystem-scale soil representation in models. Finally, we describe a new core model concept (KEYLINK) that integrates insights from SOM models, structural models and food web models to simulate the living soil at an ecosystem scale

Dryland mechanisms could widely control ecosystem functioning in a drier and warmer world

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change have been explored in many regions worldwide. While continued drying and warming may alter process rates and deteriorate the state and performance of ecosystems, it could also lead to more fundamental changes in the mechanisms governing ecosystem functioning. Here we argue that climate change will induce unprecedented shifts in these mechanisms in historically wetter climatic zones, towards mechanisms currently prevalent in dry regions, which we refer to as ‘dryland mechanisms’. We discuss 12 dryland mechanisms affecting multiple processes of ecosystem functioning, including vegetation development, water flow, energy budget, carbon and nutrient cycling, plant production and organic matter decomposition. We then examine mostly rare examples of the operation of these mechanisms in non-dryland regions where they have been considered irrelevant at present. Current and future climate trends could force microclimatic conditions across thresholds and lead to the emergence of dryland mechanisms and their increasing control over ecosystem functioning in many biomes on Earth.The support of the Israel Science Foundation is acknowledged by J.M.G. (grant number 1796/19), O.A. (1185/17) and E.M. (1053/17). M.B. acknowledges funding through the ÖAW-ESS project ClimGrassHydro (Austrian Academy of Sciences).Peer reviewe