Evaluation of Surface Layer Stability Functions and Their Extension to First Order Turbulent Closures for Weakly and Strongly Stratified Stable Boundary Layer

In this study, we utilize a generalization of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to construct first order turbulent closures for single-column models of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). A set of widely used universal functions for dimensionless gradients is evaluated. Two test cases based on Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) experimental setups are considered – weakly stable ABL (GABLS1; Beare et al. in Bound Layer Meteorol 118(2):247–272,2006), and very strongly stratified ABL (van der Linden et al. in Bound Layer Meteorol 173(2):165–192, 2019). The comparison shows that approximations obtained using a linear dimensionless velocity gradient tend to match the LES data more closely. In particular, the EFB (Energy- and Flux- Budget) closure proposed by Zilitinkevich et al. (Bound Layer Meteorol 146(3):341–373, 2013) has the best performance for the tests considered here. We also test surface layer “bulk formulas” based on these universal functions. The same LES data are utilized for comparison. The setup showcases the behavior of surface scheme, when one assumes that the velocity and temperature profiles in ABL are represented correctly. The advantages and disadvantages of different surface schemes are revealed

Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.Peer reviewe

Impact of the Novaya Zemlya Bora on the Ocean-Atmosphere Heat Exchange and Ocean Circulation: A Case-Study with the Coupled Model

Novaya Zemlya bora is a strong downslope windstorm in the east of the Barents Sea. This paper considers the influence of the Novaya Zemlya bora on the turbulent heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean and on processes in the ocean. Another goal of this study is to demonstrate the sensitivity of simulated turbulent fluxes during bora to model coupling between atmosphere, ocean and sea waves. In this regard, a high-resolution numerical simulation of one winter bora episode was carried out using the COAWST (Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport) modeling system, which includes the atmospheric (WRF-ARW model), oceanic (ROMS model), and sea waves (SWAN model) components. As shown by the simulation results, in the fully coupled experiment, turbulent heat exchange is enhanced in comparison with the uncoupled experiment (by 3% on average over the region). This is due to the atmosphere-sea-waves interaction, and the results are highly sensitive to the choice of roughness parameterization. The influence of the interaction of the atmospheric and oceanic components on turbulent fluxes in this episode is small on average. Bora has a significant impact on the processes in the ocean directly near the coast, forming a strong coastal current and making a decisive contribution to the formation of dense waters. In the open sea, the bora, or rather, the redistribution of the wind and temperature fields caused by the orography of Novaya Zemlya, leads to a decrease in ocean heat content losses due to a decrease in turbulent heat exchange in comparison with the experiment with flat topography

Direct Numerical Simulation of a Turbulent Channel Flow with Forchheimer Drag

We characterize the turbulent flow, using direct numerical simulations (DNS), within a closed channel between two parallel walls with a canopy of constant areal density profile on the lower wall. The canopy is modelled using different formulations of the Forchheimer drag, and the characteristic properties of the turbulent flows are compared. In particular, we examine the influence of the added drag on the mean profiles of the flow and the balance equations of the turbulent kinetic energy. We find that the different formulations of the drag strongly affect the mean and the turbulent profiles close to the canopy. We also observe the changes in the local anisotropy of the turbulent flow in the presence of the canopy. We find that there is an equal transfer of energy from the streamwise component to both the transverse components outside the canopy by the pressure and velocity-gradient correlation; inside the canopy, this correlation removes energy from both the streamwise and the wall-normal fluctuations and injects into the spanwise component. As a result, the energy content of the spanwise fluctuations is comparable to that of the streamwise components inside the canopy. Inside the canopy, we observe that the turbulent transport of Reynolds stresses acts as an important source of turbulent kinetic energy. The pressure-fluctuation transport plays a significant role inside the canopy close to the wall and is comparable to turbulent transport

Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide