Lessons from the Use of Ranked Choice Voting in American Presidential Primaries

Grounded in experience in 2020, both major political parties have reasons to expand use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in their 2024 presidential primaries. RCV may offer a ‘win-win’ solution benefiting both the parties and their voters. RCV would build on both the pre-1968 American tradition of parties determining a coalitional presidential nominee through multiple ballots at party conventions and the modern practice of allowing voters to effectively choose their nominees in primaries. Increasingly used by parties around the world in picking their leaders, RCV may allow voters to crowd-source a coalitional nominee. Most published research about RCV focuses on state and local elections. In contrast, this article analyzes the impact on voters, candidates, and parties from five state Democratic parties using RCV in party-run presidential nomination contests in 2020. First, it uses polls and results to examine how more widespread use of RCV might have affected the trajectory of contests for the 2016 Republican nomination. Second, it contrasts how more than three million voters in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries backed withdrawn candidates with the low rate of such wasted votes for withdrawn candidates in the states with RCV ballots. Finally, it concludes with an examination of how RCV might best interact with the parties’ current rules and potential changes to those rules

Measuring Gravitational Lensing Flexions in Abell 1689 Using an Analytic Image Model

Measuring dark matter substructure within galaxy cluster haloes is a fundamental probe of the Lambda-CDM model of structure formation. Gravitational lensing is a technique for measuring the total mass distribution which is independent of the nature of the gravitating matter, making it a vital tool for studying these dark-matter dominated objects. We present a new method for measuring weak gravitational lensing flexions, the gradients of the lensing shear field, to measure mass distributions on small angular scales. While previously published methods for measuring flexions focus on measuring derived properties of the lensed images, such as shapelet coefficients or surface brightness moments, our method instead fits a mass-sheet-transformation-invariant Analytic Image Model (AIM) to the each galaxy image. This simple parametric model traces the distortion of lensed image isophotes and constrains the flexion fields. We test the AIM method using simulated data images with realistic noise and a variety of unlensed image properties, and show that it successfully reproduces the input flexion fields. We also apply the AIM method for flexion measurement to Hubble Space Telescope observations of Abell 1689, and detect mass structure in the cluster using flexions measured with the AIM method.Comment: 44 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables. Accepted to ApJ. V2 (published version) has minor changes from V1; ApJ 736 (2011

Encouraging Medicare Advantage Enrollees to Switch to Higher Quality Plans: Assessing the Effectiveness of a ‘‘Nudge’’ Letter

There are considerable quality differences across private Medicare Advantage insurance plans, so it is important that beneficiaries make informed choices. During open enrollment for the 2013 coverage year, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services sent letters to beneficiaries enrolled in low-quality Medicare Advantage plans (i.e., plans rated less than 3 stars for at least 3 consecutive years by Medicare) explaining the stars and encouraging them to reexamine their choices. To understand the effectiveness of these low-cost, behavioral ‘‘nudge’’ letters, we used a beneficiary-level national retrospective cohort and performed multivariate regression analysis of plan selection during the 2013 open enrollment period among those enrolled in plans rated less than 3 stars. Our analysis controls for beneficiary demographic characteristics, health and health care spending risks, the availability of alternative higher rated plan options in their local market, and historical disenrollment rates from the plans. We compared the behaviors of those beneficiaries who received the nudge letters with those who enrolled in similar poorly rated plans but did not receive such letters. We found that beneficiaries who received the nudge letter were almost twice as likely (28.0% [95% confidence interval = 27.7%, 28.2%] vs. 15.3% [95% confidence interval = 15.1%, 15.5%]) to switch to a higher rated plan compared with those who did not receive the letter. White beneficiaries, healthier beneficiaries, and those residing in areas with more high-performing plan choices were more likely to switch plans in response to the nudge. Our findings highlight both the importance and efficacy of providing timely and actionable information to beneficiaries about quality in the insurance marketplace to facilitate informed and value-based coverage decisions

Explorations, Vol. 5, No. 1

Articles include: Cover: What Have We Done with Tomorrow? by Leslie C. Hyde, UMCES Extension Agent for Knox-Lincoln Counties. Editorial Reflections, Carole J. Bombard UMCES: an overview Conversation with the Director: Assistant Vice-President Judith Bailey Reaching Out for Teen Awareness, by Theresa M. Ferrari Profile of a Harbormaster, by Carole J. Bombard Minding Maine’s Business, by Mary S. Bowie Family Resource Management: Learning to ease the burden, by Olive Dubord and Doris Cushman Breaking Free and Taking Control: Helen Sawyer’s Story, by Doris Manley Partnership in Conservation: The Josephine Newman Sanctuary, by Nancy Coverstone The Mount Desert Island Health Promotion Project, by Ron Beard Dynamics of Weed Control in Agriculture, by Leigh Morrow From Generation to Generation: An Extension Homemaker Family, by Nadine B. Reimer ICLAD: The Institute for Community Leadership and Development, by Jim Killacky and Deb Burwell Exploding the Cinderella Syndrome: Strengthening Stepfamilies, by Wendy Pollock Integrated Pest Management: Bringing it all together, by Glen Koehler and Jim Dill Addressing the Issues, by Patricia M. Pierson Anti-Bruise: What’s It All About? Maine Potato Harvest Anti-Bruise Program, by Neal D. Hallee H.O.P.E. Addresses Teenage Pregnancy, by Jane M. Kelly Saving Money and the Environment, by Vaughn H. Holyoke Reservoir Tillage in Nonirrigated Potato Production, by Leigh Morrow Managing Pesticide Drift, by James D. Dwyer, Leigh S. Morrow and James F. Dill The St. George River Project — what have we done with tomorrow? Putting Research to Work, by Stephen Belyea The Best Maine Blue: Fresh Pack Blueberries, by Tom DeGomez Maine’s Green Sea Urchin, by Benjamin A. Baxter Interfaces and Cooperation: Wildlife and Fisheries Sampler, by Catherine A. Elliott Extension Responds to the Salmonella Scare, by Nellie Hedstrom and Mahmoud El-Begearm

Spectrum, risk factors and outcomes of neurological and psychiatric complications of COVID-19: a UK-wide cross-sectional surveillance study

SARS-CoV-2 is associated with new-onset neurological and psychiatric conditions. Detailed clinical data, including factors associated with recovery, are lacking, hampering prediction modelling and targeted therapeutic interventions. In a UK-wide cross-sectional surveillance study of adult hospitalized patients during the first COVID-19 wave, with multi-professional input from general and sub-specialty neurologists, psychiatrists, stroke physicians, and intensivists, we captured detailed data on demographics, risk factors, pre-COVID-19 Rockwood frailty score, comorbidities, neurological presentation and outcome. A priori clinical case definitions were used, with cross-specialty independent adjudication for discrepant cases. Multivariable logistic regression was performed using demographic and clinical variables, to determine the factors associated with outcome. A total of 267 cases were included. Cerebrovascular events were most frequently reported (131, 49%), followed by other central disorders (95, 36%) including delirium (28, 11%), central inflammatory (25, 9%), psychiatric (25, 9%), and other encephalopathies (17, 7%), including a severe encephalopathy (n = 13) not meeting delirium criteria; and peripheral nerve disorders (41, 15%). Those with the severe encephalopathy, in comparison to delirium, were younger, had higher rates of admission to intensive care and a longer duration of ventilation. Compared to normative data during the equivalent time period prior to the pandemic, cases of stroke in association with COVID-19 were younger and had a greater number of conventional, modifiable cerebrovascular risk factors. Twenty-seven per cent of strokes occurred in patients 60 years old, the younger stroke patients presented with delayed onset from respiratory symptoms, higher rates of multi-vessel occlusion (31%) and systemic thrombotic events. Clinical outcomes varied between disease groups, with cerebrovascular disease conferring the worst prognosis, but this effect was less marked than the pre-morbid factors of older age and a higher pre-COVID-19 frailty score, and a high admission white cell count, which were independently associated with a poor outcome. In summary, this study describes the spectrum of neurological and psychiatric conditions associated with COVID-19. In addition, we identify a severe COVID-19 encephalopathy atypical for delirium, and a phenotype of COVID-19 associated stroke in younger adults with a tendency for multiple infarcts and systemic thromboses. These clinical data will be useful to inform mechanistic studies and stratification of patients in clinical trials

Subaru Weak Lensing Measurements of Four Strong Lensing Clusters: Are Lensing Clusters Over-Concentrated?

We derive radial mass profiles of four strong lensing selected clusters which show prominent giant arcs (Abell 1703, SDSS J1446+3032, SDSS J1531+3414, and SDSS J2111-0115), by combining detailed strong lens modeling with weak lensing shear measured from deep Subaru Suprime-cam images. Weak lensing signals are detected at high significance for all four clusters, whose redshifts range from z=0.28 to 0.64. We demonstrate that adding strong lensing information with known arc redshifts significantly improves constraints on the mass density profile, compared to those obtained from weak lensing alone. While the mass profiles are well fitted by the universal form predicted in N-body simulations of the LCDM model, all four clusters appear to be slightly more centrally concentrated (the concentration parameters c_vir \sim 8) than theoretical predictions, even after accounting for the bias toward higher concentrations inherent in lensing selected samples. Our results are consistent with previous studies which similarly detected a concentration excess, and increases the total number of clusters studied with the combined strong and weak lensing technique to ten. Combining our sample with previous work, we find that clusters with larger Einstein radii are more anomalously concentrated. We also present a detailed model of the lensing cluster A1703 with constraints from multiple image families, and find the dark matter inner density profile to be cuspy with the slope consistent with -1, in agreement with expectations.Comment: 41 pages, 9 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in Ap

Pre-Procedural Atorvastatin Mobilizes Endothelial Progenitor Cells: Clues to the Salutary Effects of Statins on Healing of Stented Human Arteries

OBJECTIVES: Recent clinical trials suggest an LDL-independent superiority of intensive statin therapy in reducing target vessel revascularization and peri-procedural myocardial infarctions in patients who undergo percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). While animal studies demonstrate that statins mobilize endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) which can enhance arterial repair and attenuate neointimal formation, the precise explanation for the clinical PCI benefits of high dose statin therapy remain elusive. Thus we serially assessed patients undergoing PCI to test the hypothesis that high dose Atorvastatin therapy initiated prior to PCI mobilizes EPCs that may be capable of enhancing arterial repair. METHODS AND RESULTS: Statin naïve male patients undergoing angiography for stent placement were randomized to standard therapy without Atorvastatin (n = 10) or treatment with Atorvastatin 80 mg (n = 10) beginning three days prior to stent implantation. EPCs were defined by flow cytometry (e.g., surface marker profile of CD45dim/34+/133+/117+). As well, we also enumerated cultured angiogenic cells (CACs) by standard in vitro culture assay. While EPC levels did not fluctuate over time for the patients free of Atorvastatin, there was a 3.5-fold increase in EPC levels with high dose Atorvastatin beginning within 3 days of the first dose (and immediately pre-PCI) which persisted at 4 and 24 hours post-PCI (p<0.05). There was a similar rise in CAC levels as assessed by in vitro culture. CACs cultured in the presence of Atorvastatin failed to show augmented survival or VEGF secretion but displayed a 2-fold increase in adhesion to stent struts (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: High dose Atorvastatin therapy pre-PCI improves EPC number and CAC number and function in humans which may in part explain the benefit in clinical outcomes seen in patients undergoing coronary interventions

Spectrum, risk factors and outcomes of neurological and psychiatric complications of COVID-19: a UK-wide cross-sectional surveillance study.

SARS-CoV-2 is associated with new-onset neurological and psychiatric conditions. Detailed clinical data, including factors associated with recovery, are lacking, hampering prediction modelling and targeted therapeutic interventions. In a UK-wide cross-sectional surveillance study of adult hospitalized patients during the first COVID-19 wave, with multi-professional input from general and sub-specialty neurologists, psychiatrists, stroke physicians, and intensivists, we captured detailed data on demographics, risk factors, pre-COVID-19 Rockwood frailty score, comorbidities, neurological presentation and outcome. A priori clinical case definitions were used, with cross-specialty independent adjudication for discrepant cases. Multivariable logistic regression was performed using demographic and clinical variables, to determine the factors associated with outcome. A total of 267 cases were included. Cerebrovascular events were most frequently reported (131, 49%), followed by other central disorders (95, 36%) including delirium (28, 11%), central inflammatory (25, 9%), psychiatric (25, 9%), and other encephalopathies (17, 7%), including a severe encephalopathy (n = 13) not meeting delirium criteria; and peripheral nerve disorders (41, 15%). Those with the severe encephalopathy, in comparison to delirium, were younger, had higher rates of admission to intensive care and a longer duration of ventilation. Compared to normative data during the equivalent time period prior to the pandemic, cases of stroke in association with COVID-19 were younger and had a greater number of conventional, modifiable cerebrovascular risk factors. Twenty-seven per cent of strokes occurred in patients 60 years old, the younger stroke patients presented with delayed onset from respiratory symptoms, higher rates of multi-vessel occlusion (31%) and systemic thrombotic events. Clinical outcomes varied between disease groups, with cerebrovascular disease conferring the worst prognosis, but this effect was less marked than the pre-morbid factors of older age and a higher pre-COVID-19 frailty score, and a high admission white cell count, which were independently associated with a poor outcome. In summary, this study describes the spectrum of neurological and psychiatric conditions associated with COVID-19. In addition, we identify a severe COVID-19 encephalopathy atypical for delirium, and a phenotype of COVID-19 associated stroke in younger adults with a tendency for multiple infarcts and systemic thromboses. These clinical data will be useful to inform mechanistic studies and stratification of patients in clinical trials

Identification of miRNA-103 in the Cellular Fraction of Human Peripheral Blood as a Potential Biomarker for Malignant Mesothelioma – A Pilot Study

Background: To date, no biomarkers with reasonable sensitivity and specificity for the early detection of malignant mesothelioma have been described. The use of microRNAs (miRNAs) as minimally-invasive biomarkers has opened new opportunities for the diagnosis of cancer, primarily because they exhibit tumor-specific expression profiles and have been commonly observed in blood of both cancer patients and healthy controls. The aim of this pilot study was to identify miRNAs in the cellular fraction of human peripheral blood as potential novel biomarkers for the detection of malignant mesothelioma. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using oligonucleotide microarrays for biomarker identification the miRNA levels in the cellular fraction of human peripheral blood of mesothelioma patients and asbestos-exposed controls were analyzed. Using a threefold expression change in combination with a significance level of p,0.05, miR-103 was identified as a potential biomarker for malignant mesothelioma. Quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) was used for validation of miR-103 in 23 malignant mesothelioma patients, 17 asbestos-exposed controls, and 25 controls from the general population. For discrimination of mesothelioma patients from asbestos-exposed controls a sensitivity of 83 % and a specificity of 71 % were calculated, and for discrimination of mesothelioma patients from the general population a sensitivity of 78 % and a specificity of 76%