Presenting the case for the application of multi-criteria analysis to mega transport infrastructure project appraisal

The paper commences with an overview of mega transport infrastructure decision-making as it relates to the megaproject development cycle and challenges of sustainable development, which are increasingly redefining the criterion for the evaluation of project success. The body of the paper presents a brief critique of various appraisal applications to mega transport infrastructure projects, including: Social Cost Benefit Analysis; Cost Effectiveness Analysis; Goal Achievement Matrix Methods and the Planning Balance Sheet, highlighting the merits and demerits of the outlined approaches. Here particular reference is made to the power of context on decision-making and other lessons from OMEGA Centre research. These include, most importantly, the treatment of risk, uncertainty and complexity of developments outside of the project and the challenges of meeting multiple stakeholder aspirations/needs thereby building up the case for the introduction and use of multi-criteria analysis and policy-led multi-criteria analysis to the appraisal of Mega Transport Projects

Application of policy-led multi-criteria analysis to the appraisal of the Northern Line Extension, London

This paper seeks to both illustrate and act as a proof of concept of how a policy-led multi-criteria analysis framework and its attendant process of the type introduced in the second paper, ‘Theory and Background of Multi-Criteria Analysis: Toward a policy-led approach for mega transport project infrastructure appraisal’, can be applied to the appraisal of a mega transport project in the form of the Northern Line Extension in London. It is offered with a view to help better identify the distribution of the projects costs and benefits and shed greater light on the possible ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ over space and time, and under given scenarios. Drawing from an extensive array of public domain literature the paper sets out both the policy and planning contexts for the project plus the business case that led to a decision by UK Treasury to guarantee a £1 billion loan to Transport for London for the construction of the Northern Line's extension. The paper looks at the scale and nature of the megaproject's features, particularly its line-haul and related real estate developments, especially those in the assigned development opportunity area. The text presents the policy, planning, legislative and regulative dimensions of the project likely to define its revenue generation prospects and environmental and social impacts, with special attention paid to those project outcomes affecting key stakeholders over time and space. The paper also seeks to explain the mechanics of how to employ a policy-led multi-criteria framework together with its associated processes within which stakeholder policies and agendas can be mapped and common/divergent interests identified. This is done with a view to ultimately facilitate stakeholder negotiation decision-making trade-offs in given scenarios under the policy guidance of the Greater London Authority with the support of the Treasury of the UK Government

Theory and Background of Multi-Criteria Analysis: Toward a policy-led approach for mega transport project infrastructure appraisal

The aims of this paper are twofold. Firstly, to present a review and critical analysis of the varying forms and functions of Multi-Criteria Analysis presented in the literature, and secondly, drawing from this, to introduce methods and processes by which policy leadership can be introduced into such processes for the appraisal of large-scale transport infrastructure projects to form a policy-led multi-criteria analysis. Following the discussion in the first paper of this Special Issue, ‘Presenting the Case for the Application of Multi-Criteria Analysis to Mega Transport Project Infrastructure Appraisal’, this contribution commences by outlining further the generic features and challenges of multi-criteria analysis approaches to project appraisal whilst emphasizing the difference among various frameworks and attendant processes for such approaches. It also highlights the important role/value of the multi-criteria mapping of stakeholder policies and agendas affecting project decision-making as a means of defining and scoping the boundaries of the project exercise under study and the trade-off decision-spaces for stakeholder dialogues and negotiations in their search to arrive at mutually agreed actions and outcomes. The paper discusses how multi-criteria analysis frameworks can be tailor-designed for particular agencies and stakeholders developed around problems, challenges and issues. This is done in the acknowledgement that such exercises, especially when applied to mega infrastructure project appraisal, typically attract a multiple-institutional response and where ultimately an institutional leader (or partnership of stakeholders) exists/emerges that impose its/their priorities on others. Alternatively, the approach can be tailor-made for specific institutions with its imbedded hierarchy of policies and priorities that frame the stakeholder decision space within which other parties can participate and trade off interests. The first part of the paper highlights the important role of scenarios of policy-making contexts and policy leadership indicating the new risks, uncertainties and opportunities these may offer in multi-criteria analysis exercises, indicating that some/many past processes have been conducted outside of any real reference to such matters. In so doing, such applications have them silently and implicitly adopt scenarios and policy assumptions that are not transparent frequently reflecting, it is alleged, ‘business as usual’ circumstances in contexts when the signs are very much that these trends will not/cannot prevail. The authors contend that without explicit policy leadership there is a danger that certain institutional stakeholder priorities will be imposed over others by the most powerful without adequate dialogue. Understanding that this matters a great deal in contexts when project stakeholder powers shifts occur is very significant. Examples of such circumstances are when national governments become, less or more powerful and economically affluent, when relative legislative and regulation powers become less or more binding and powerful, and when a major private sector investor upon which a project depends goes bankrupt. The second half of the paper builds on these observations to offer a generic multi-criteria analysis framework and attendant processes that imbed policy leadership firmly within multi-stakeholder decision-making (termed Policy-led Multi-criteria Analysis). The framework developed is to be applied to mega transport projects via the use of suitable appraisal criteria in the pursuit of sustainable development goals, which seek to address both quantitative and qualitative dimensions and concerns of multiple stakeholders, with particular emphasis on the processes required to identify and incorporate suitable policy leadership, including feedback between appraisal and policy

A phase 1b study evaluating the safety and preliminary efficacy of berzosertib in combination with gemcitabine in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer

OBJECTIVES: Berzosertib (formerly M6620, VX-970) is an intravenous, highly potent and selective, first-in-class ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related (ATR) protein kinase inhibitor. We assessed the safety, tolerability, preliminary efficacy, and pharmacokinetics (PK) of berzosertib plus gemcitabine in an expansion cohort of patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The association of efficacy with TP53 status and other tumor markers was also explored. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Adult patients with advanced histologically confirmed NSCLC received berzosertib 210 mg/m2 (days 2 and 9) and gemcitabine 1000 mg/m2 (days 1 and 8) at the recommended phase 2 dose established in the dose escalation part of the study. RESULTS: Thirty-eight patients received at least one dose of study treatment. The most common treatment-emergent adverse events were fatigue (55.3%), anemia (52.6%), and nausea (39.5%). Gemcitabine had no apparent effect on the PK of berzosertib. The objective response rate (ORR) was 10.5% (4/38, 90% confidence interval [CI]: 3.7–22.5%). In the exploratory analysis, the ORR was 30.0% (3/10, 90% CI: 9.0–61.0%) in patients with high loss of heterozygosity (LOH) and 11.0% (1/9, 90% CI: 1.0–43.0%) in patients with low LOH. The ORR was 33.0% (2/6, 90% CI: 6.0–73.0%) in patients with high tumor mutational burden (TMB), 12.5% (2/16, 90% CI: 2.0–34.0%) in patients with intermediate TMB, and 0% (0/3, 90% CI: 0.0–53.6%) in patients with low TMB. CONCLUSIONS: Berzosertib plus gemcitabine was well tolerated in patients with advanced, pre-treated NSCLC. Based on the observed clinical efficacy, future clinical trials should involve genomically selected patients

Thoracic myelopathy caused by ossification of ligamentum flavum of which fluorosis as an etiology factor

PURPOSE: To evaluate the clinical feature, operative method and prognosis of thoracic ossification of ligamentum flavum caused by skeletal fluorosis. METHODS: All the patients with thoracic OLF, who underwent surgical management in the authors' hospital from 1993–2003, were retrospectively studied. The diagnosis of skeletal fluorosis was made by the epidemic history, clinical symptoms, radiographic findings, and urinalysis. En bloc laminectomy decompression of the involved thoracic levels was performed in all cases. Cervical open door decompression or lumbar laminectomy decompression was performed if relevant stenosis existed. The neurological statuses were evaluated with the Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) scoring system preoperatively and at the end point of follow up. Also, the recovery rate was calculated. RESULTS: 23 cases have been enrolled in this study. Imaging study findings showed all the cases have ossification of ligamentum flavum together with ossification of many other ligaments and interosseous membranes, i.e. interosseous membranes of the forearm in 18 of 23 (78.3%), of the leg in 14 of 23 (60.1%) and of the ribs in 11 of 23 (47.8%). Urinalysis showed markedly increased urinary fluoride in 14 of 23 patients (60.9%). All the patients were followed up from 12 months to 9 years and 3 months, with an average of 4 years and 5 months. The JOA score increased significantly at the end of follow up (P = 0.0001). The recovery rate was 51.83 ± 32.36%. Multiple regression analysis revealed that the preoperative JOA score was an important predictor of surgical outcome (p = 0.0022, r = 0.60628). ANOVA analysis showed that patients with acute onset or too long duration had worse surgical result (P = 0.0003). CONCLUSION: Fluorosis can cause ossification of thoracic ligamentum flavum, as well as other ligaments. En bloc laminectomy decompression was an effective method. Preoperative JOA score was the most important predictor of surgical outcome. Patients with acute onset or too long duration had worse surgical outcome

SEROLOGICAL DETECTION OF HEPATITIS A VIRUS IN FREE-RANGING NEOTROPICAL PRIMATES (Sapajus spp., Alouatta caraya) FROM THE PARANÁ RIVER BASIN, BRAZIL

Nonhuman primates are considered as the natural hosts of Hepatitis A virus (HAV), as well as other pathogens, and can serve as natural sentinels to investigate epizootics and endemic diseases that are of public health importance. During this study, blood samples were collected from 112 Neotropical primates (NTPs) (Sapajus nigritus and S. cay, n = 75; Alouatta caraya, n = 37) trap-captured at the Paraná River basin, Brazil, located between the States of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. Anti-HAV IgG antibodies were detected in 4.5% (5/112) of NTPs, specifically in 6.7% (5/75) of Sapajus spp. and 0% (0/37) of A. caraya. In addition, all samples were negative for the presence of IgM anti-HAV antibodies. These results suggest that free-ranging NTPs were exposed to HAV within the geographical regions evaluated

Ecological Thresholds in the Savanna Landscape: Developing a Protocol for Monitoring the Change in Composition and Utilisation of Large Trees

BACKGROUND: Acquiring greater understanding of the factors causing changes in vegetation structure -- particularly with the potential to cause regime shifts -- is important in adaptively managed conservation areas. Large trees (> or =5 m in height) play an important ecosystem function, and are associated with a stable ecological state in the African savanna. There is concern that large tree densities are declining in a number of protected areas, including the Kruger National Park, South Africa. In this paper the results of a field study designed to monitor change in a savanna system are presented and discussed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Developing the first phase of a monitoring protocol to measure the change in tree species composition, density and size distribution, whilst also identifying factors driving change. A central issue is the discrete spatial distribution of large trees in the landscape, making point sampling approaches relatively ineffective. Accordingly, fourteen 10 m wide transects were aligned perpendicular to large rivers (3.0-6.6 km in length) and eight transects were located at fixed-point photographic locations (1.0-1.6 km in length). Using accumulation curves, we established that the majority of tree species were sampled within 3 km. Furthermore, the key ecological drivers (e.g. fire, herbivory, drought and disease) which influence large tree use and impact were also recorded within 3 km. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The technique presented provides an effective method for monitoring changes in large tree abundance, size distribution and use by the main ecological drivers across the savanna landscape. However, the monitoring of rare tree species would require individual marking approaches due to their low densities and specific habitat requirements. Repeat sampling intervals would vary depending on the factor of concern and proposed management mitigation. Once a monitoring protocol has been identified and evaluated, the next stage is to integrate that protocol into a decision-making system, which highlights potential leading indicators of change. Frequent monitoring would be required to establish the rate and direction of change. This approach may be useful in generating monitoring protocols for other dynamic systems

The Financial Burden of Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases in Rural Nigeria: Wealth and Gender Heterogeneity in Health Care Utilization and Health Expenditures

Objectives Better insights into health care utilization and out-of-pocket expenditures for non-communicable chronic diseases (NCCD) are needed to develop accessible health care and limit the increasing financial burden of NCCDs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods A household survey was conducted in rural Kwara State, Nigeria, among 5,761 individuals. Data were obtained using biomedical and socio-economic questionnaires. Health care utilization, NCCD-related health expenditures and distances to health care providers were compared by sex and by wealth quintile, and a Heckman regression model was used to estimate health expenditures taking selection bias in health care utilization into account. Results The prevalence of NCCDs in our sample was 6.2%. NCCD-affected individuals from the wealthiest quintile utilized formal health care nearly twice as often as those from the lowest quintile (87.8% vs 46.2%, p = 0.002). Women reported foregone formal care more often than men (43.5% vs. 27.0%, p = 0.058). Health expenditures relative to annual consumption of the poorest quintile exceeded those of the highest quintile 2.2-fold, and the poorest quintile exhibited a higher rate of catastrophic health spending (10.8% among NCCD-affected households) than the three upper quintiles (4.2% to 6.7%). Long travel distances to the nearest provider, highest for the poorest quintile, were a significant deterrent to seeking care. Using distance to the nearest facility as instrument to account for selection into health care utilization, we estimated out-of-pocket health care expenditures for NCCDs to be significantly higher in the lowest wealth quintile compared to the three upper quintiles. Conclusions Facing potentially high health care costs and poor accessibility of health care facilities, many individuals suffering from NCCDs—particularly women and the poor—forego formal care, thereby increasing the risk of more severe illness in the future. When seeking care, the poor spend less on treatment than the rich, suggestive of lower quality care, while their expenditures represent a higher share of their annual household consumption. This calls for targeted interventions that enhance health care accessibility and provide financial protection from the consequences of NCCDs, especially for vulnerable populations

A Multicentre Molecular Analysis of Hepatitis B and Blood-Borne Virus Coinfections in Viet Nam

Hepatitis B (HBV) infection is endemic in Viet Nam, with up to 8.4 million individuals estimated to be chronically infected. We describe results of a large, multicentre seroepidemiological and molecular study of the prevalence of HBV infection and blood-borne viral coinfections in Viet Nam. Individuals with varying risk factors for infection (n = 8654) were recruited from five centres; Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Da Nang, Khanh Hoa and Can Tho. A mean prevalence rate of 10.7% was observed and levels of HBsAg were significantly higher in injecting drug users (IDUs) (17.4%, n = 174/1000) and dialysis patients (14.3%, n = 82/575) than in lower-risk groups (9.4%; p<0.001). Coinfection with HIV was seen in 28% of HBV-infected IDUs (n = 49/174) and 15.2% of commercial sex workers (CSWs; n = 15/99). HCV infection was present in 89.8% of the HBV-HIV coinfected IDUs (n = 44/49) and 40% of HBV-HIV coinfected CSWs (n = 16/40). Anti-HDV was detected in 10.7% (n = 34/318) of HBsAg positive individuals. Phylogenetic analysis of HBV S gene (n = 187) showed a predominance of genotype B4 (82.6%); genotypes C1 (14.6%), B2 (2.7%) and C5 (0.5%) were also identified. The precore mutation G1896A was identified in 35% of all specimens, and was more frequently observed in genotype B (41%) than genotype C (3%; p<0.0001). In the immunodominant ‘a’ region of the surface gene, point mutations were identified in 31% (n = 58/187) of sequences, and 2.2% (n = 4/187) and 5.3% (n = 10/187) specimens contained the major vaccine escape mutations G145A/R and P120L/Q/S/T, respectively. 368 HBsAg positive individuals were genotyped for the IL28B SNP rs12979860 and no significant association between the IL28B SNP and clearance of HBsAg, HBV viral load or HBeAg was observed. This study confirms the high prevalence of HBV infection in Viet Nam and also highlights the significant levels of blood-borne virus coinfections, which have important implications for hepatitis-related morbidity and development of effective management strategies