Modeling the oxygen isotope composition of the Antarctic ice sheet and its significance to Pliocene sea leve

Recent estimates of global mean sea level based on the oxygen isotope composition of mid-Pliocene benthic foraminifera vary from 9 to 21 m above present, which has differing implications for the past stability of the Antarctic ice sheet during an interval with atmospheric CO2 comparable to present. Here we simulate the oxygen isotope composition of the Antarctic ice sheet for a range of configurations using isotope-enabled climate and ice sheet models. We identify which ice-sheet configurations are consistent with the oxygen isotope record and suggest a maximum contribution from Antarctica to the mid-Pliocene sea level highstand of ~13 m. We also highlight that the relationship between the oxygen isotope record and sea level is not constant when ice is lost from deep marine basins, which has important implications for the use of oxygen isotopes as a sea level proxy

The role of salinity in circulation of the Cretaceous ocean

The density of seawater is a complex function of temperature, salinity, and pressure. Because of the non-linearity of the equation of state of seawater, the densities of sea waters having the same temperature and the same salinity differences (with respect to the mean salinity of the ocean) will vary with the mean salinity of the ocean. Although this strange property of seawater is evident in a plot of the equation of state, it has never been considered in trying to reconstruct ancient ocean circulation. These differences in the density field may have caused the ocean to respond differently to atmospheric forcing in the past. The different response may hold the key to understanding "ocean anoxic events" and episodes of large-scale burial of organic carbon and production of petroleum source rocks

Antarctic bedrock topography uncertainty and ice sheet stability

All Rights Reserved. Antarctic bedrock elevation estimates have uncertainties exceeding 1km in certain regions. Bedrock elevation, particularly where the bedrock is below sea level and bordering the ocean, can have a large impact on ice sheet stability. We investigate how present-day bedrock elevation uncertainty affects ice sheet model simulations for a generic past warm period based on the mid-Pliocene, although these uncertainties are also relevant to present-day and future ice sheet stability. We perform an ensemble of simulations with random topographic noise added with various length scales and with amplitudes tuned to the uncertainty of the Bedmap2 data set. Total Antarctic ice sheet retreat in these simulations varies between 12.6 and 17.9m equivalent sea level rise after 3kyrs of warm climate forcing. This study highlights the sensitivity of ice sheet models to existing uncertainties in bedrock elevation and the ongoing need for new data acquisition. Key Points Quantify how Antarctic bed elevation uncertainty affects ice sheet simulations Simulate retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet for a warm Pliocene climate Identify key areas for future improvements to bed elevation data

Controls on interior West Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevations: inferences from geologic constraints and ice sheet modeling

Knowledge of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) response to past sea level and climate forcing is necessary to predict its response to warmer temperatures in the future. The timing and extent of past interior WAIS elevation changes provides insight to WAIS behavior and constraints for ice sheet models. Constraints prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) however, are rare. Surface exposure ages of glacial erratics near the WAIS divide at Mt. Waesche in Marie Byrd Land, and at the Ohio Range in the Transantarctic Mountains, range from ∼10 ka to >500 ka without a dependence on elevation. The probability distribution functions (PDF) of the exposure ages at both locations, are remarkably similar. During the last glaciation, maximum interior ice elevations as recorded by moraines and erratics were reached between 10 ka and 12 ka. However, most exposure ages are older than the LGM and cluster around ∼40 ka and ∼80 ka. The peak in the exposure age distributions at ∼40 ka includes ages of alpine moraine boulders at Mercer Ridge in the Ohio Range. Comparison of the PDF of exposures ages from the Ohio Range and Mt. Waesche with the temperature record from the Fuji Dome ice core indicates that the youngest peak in the exposure age distributions corresponds to the abrupt warming during the Last Glacial termination. A prominent peak in the Ohio Range PDF corresponds to the penultimate termination (stage 5e). During the intervening glacial period, there is not a consistent relationship between the peaks in the PDF at each location and temperature. A combined ice sheet/ice shelf model with forcing scaled to marine δ18O predicts that interior WAIS elevations near the ice divide have varied ∼300 m over the Last Glacial cycle. Peaks in the PDF correspond to model highstands over the last 200 ka. In the simulated elevation history, maximum ice elevations at Ohio Range (+100 m) and Mt. Waesche (+60 m) occur at ∼10 ka, in agreement with observations from these sites. During collapse of the marine portion of the WAIS, ice elevations at Ohio Range and Mt. Waesche are drawn down at least 200 m below the present ice elevation. The good correspondence between the model results and observations at both the Ohio Range and Mt. Waesche supports the conclusion that interior WAIS highstands do not occur during glacial maximums. Rather, the highstands are controlled primarily by increased accumulation during temperature maximums that occur early in the interglacials. Interior down-draw events follow highstands, resulting from the arrival of a wave of thinning triggered by retreat of the WAIS grounding line coupled with decreasing accumulation rates

Alternative global Cretaceous paleogeography

Plate tectonic reconstructions for the Cretaceous have assumed that the major continental blocks—Eurasia, Greenland, North America, South America, Africa, India, Australia, and Antarctica—had separated from one another by the end of the Early Cretaceous, and that deep ocean passages connected the Pacific, Tethyan, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. North America, Eurasia, and Africa were crossed by shallow meridional seaways. This classic view of Cretaceous paleogeography may be incorrect. The revised view of the Early Cretaceous is one of three large continental blocks— North America–Eurasia, South America–Antarctica-India-Madagascar-Australia; and Africa—with large contiguous land areas surrounded by shallow epicontinental seas. There was a large open Pacific basin, a wide eastern Tethys, and a circum- African Seaway extending from the western Tethys (“Mediterranean”) region through the North and South Atlantic into the juvenile Indian Ocean between Madagascar-India and Africa. During the Early Cretaceous the deep passage from the Central Atlantic to the Pacific was blocked by blocks of northern Central America and by the Caribbean plate. There were no deep-water passages to the Arctic. Until the Late Cretaceous the Atlantic-Indian Ocean complex was a long, narrow, sinuous ocean basin extending off the Tethys and around Africa. Deep passages connecting the western Tethys with the Central Atlantic, the Central Atlantic with the Pacific, and the South Atlantic with the developing Indian Ocean appeared in the Late Cretaceous. There were many island land areas surrounded by shallow epicontinental seas at high sea-level stands

Ice sheet model dependency of the simulated Greenland Ice Sheet in the mid-Pliocene

The understanding of the nature and behavior of ice sheets in past warm periods is important for constraining the potential impacts of future climate change. The Pliocene warm period (between 3.264 and 3.025 Ma) saw global temperatures similar to those projected for future climates; nevertheless, Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained. We present results from the efforts to simulate mid-Pliocene Greenland Ice Sheets by means of the international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP). We compare the performance of existing numerical ice sheet models in simulating modern control and mid-Pliocene ice sheets with a suite of sensitivity experiments guided by available proxy records. We quantify equilibrated ice sheet volume on Greenland, identifying a potential range in sea level contributions from warm Pliocene scenarios. A series of statistical measures are performed to quantify the confidence of simulations with focus on inter-model and inter-scenario differences. We find that Pliocene Greenland Ice Sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations and internal physical quantities than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to the highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland as simulated with the highest confidence and by synthesizing available regional proxies; however, the extent of those ice caps needs to be further constrained by using a range of general circulation model (GCM) climate forcings

Uncertainties in the modelled CO2 threshold for Antarctic glaciation

A frequently cited atmospheric CO2 threshold for the onset of Antarctic glaciation of ∼780 ppmv is based on the study of DeConto and Pollard (2003) using an ice sheet model and the GENESIS climate model. Proxy records suggest that atmospheric CO2 concentrations passed through this threshold across the Eocene-Oligocene transition ∼34 Ma. However, atmospheric CO2 concentrations may have been close to this threshold earlier than this transition, which is used by some to suggest the possibility of Antarctic ice sheets during the Eocene. Here we investigate the climate model dependency of the threshold for Antarctic glaciation by performing offline ice sheet model simulations using the climate from 7 different climate models with Eocene boundary conditions (HadCM3L, CCSM3, CESM1.0, GENESIS, FAMOUS, ECHAM5 and GISS-ER). These climate simulations are sourced from a number of independent studies, and as such the boundary conditions, which are poorly constrained during the Eocene, are not identical between simulations. The results of this study suggest that the atmospheric CO2 threshold for Antarctic glaciation is highly dependent on the climate model used and the climate model configuration. A large discrepancy between the climate model and ice sheet model grids for some simulations leads to a strong sensitivity to the lapse rate parameter