Multivariate Approximations to Portfolio Return Distribution

This article proposes a three-step procedure to estimate portfolio return distributions under the multivariate Gram-Charlier (MGC) distribution. The method combines quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation for conditional means and variances and the method of moments (MM) estimation for the rest of the density parameters, including the correlation coefficients. The procedure involves consistent estimates even under density misspecification and solves the so-called ‘curse of dimensionality’ of multivariate modelling. Furthermore, the use of a MGC distribution represents a flexible and general approximation to the true distribution of portfolio returns and accounts for all its empirical regularities. An application of such procedure is performed for a portfolio composed of three European indices as an illustration. The MM estimation of the MGC (MGC-MM) is compared with the traditional maximum likelihood of both the MGC and multivariate Student’s t (benchmark) densities. A simulation on Value-at-Risk (VaR) performance for an equally weighted portfolio at 1% and 5% confidence indicates that the MGC-MM method provides reasonable approximations to the true empirical VaR. Therefore, the procedure seems to be a useful tool for risk managers and practitioners

Antibacterial activity of traditional medicinal plants used by Haudenosaunee peoples of New York State

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The evolution and spread of antibiotic resistance, as well as the evolution of new strains of disease causing agents, is of great concern to the global health community. Our ability to effectively treat disease is dependent on the development of new pharmaceuticals, and one potential source of novel drugs is traditional medicine. This study explores the antibacterial properties of plants used in Haudenosaunee traditional medicine. We tested the hypothesis that extracts from Haudenosaunee medicinal plants used to treat symptoms often caused by bacterial infection would show antibacterial properties in laboratory assays, and that these extracts would be more effective against moderately virulent bacteria than less virulent bacteria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>After identification and harvesting, a total of 57 different aqueous extractions were made from 15 plant species. Nine plant species were used in Haudenosaunee medicines and six plant species, of which three are native to the region and three are introduced, were not used in traditional medicine. Antibacterial activity against mostly avirulent (<it>Escherichia coli, Streptococcus lactis</it>) and moderately virulent (<it>Salmonella typhimurium, Staphylococcus aureus</it>) microbes was inferred through replicate disc diffusion assays; and observed and statistically predicted MIC values were determined through replicate serial dilution assays.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although there was not complete concordance between the traditional use of Haudenosaunee medicinal plants and antibacterial activity, our data support the hypothesis that the selection and use of these plants to treat disease was not random. In particular, four plant species exhibited antimicrobial properties as expected (<it>Achillea millefolium, Ipomoea pandurata, Hieracium pilosella</it>, and <it>Solidago canadensis</it>), with particularly strong effectiveness against <it>S. typhimurium</it>. In addition, extractions from two of the introduced species (<it>Hesperis matronalis </it>and <it>Rosa multiflora</it>) were effective against this pathogen.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our data suggest that further screening of plants used in traditional Haudenosaunee medicine is warranted, and we put forward several species for further investigation of activity against <it>S. typhimurium </it>(<it>A. millefolium, H. matronalis, I. pandurata, H. pilosella, R. multiflora, S. canadensis</it>).</p

Successful Determination of Larval Dispersal Distances and Subsequent Settlement for Long-Lived Pelagic Larvae

Despite its importance, we still have a poor understanding of the level of connectivity between marine populations in most geographical locations. Taking advantage of the natural features of the southeast coast of New Zealand's North Island, we deployed a series of settlement stations and conducted plankton tows to capture recent settlers and planktonic larvae of the common intertidal gastropod Austrolittorina cincta (6–8 week larval period). Satellite image analysis and ground truthing surveys revealed the absence of suitable intertidal rocky shore habitat for A. cincta over a 100 km stretch of coastline between Kapiti Island to the south and Wanganui to the north. Fifteen settlement stations (3 replicates×5 sites), which were used to mimic intertidal habitat suitable for A. cincta, were deployed for two months around and north of Kapiti Island (at 0.5, 1, 5, 15, 50 km). In addition, we also conducted plankton tows at each settlement station when the stations were first deployed to collect A. cincta larvae in the water column. On collection, all newly settled gastropods and larvae in the plankton samples were individually isolated, and a species-specific microsatellite marker was used to positively identify A. cincta individuals. Most of the positively identified A. cincta settlers and larvae were collected at the first three sampling stations (<5 km). However, low numbers of A. cincta settlers and larvae were also recorded at the two more distant locations (15 and 50 km). Dispersal curves modeled from our data suggested that <1% of gastropod larvae would travel more than 100 km. While our data show that most larvae are retained close to their natal populations (<5 km), a small proportion of larvae are able to travel much larger geographic distances. Our estimates of larval dispersal and subsequent settlement are one of only a few for marine species with a long-lived larva

Population Genetic Structure of the Grasshopper Eyprepocnemis plorans in the South and East of the Iberian Peninsula

The grasshopper Eyprepocnemis plorans subsp. plorans harbors a very widespread polymorphism for supernumerary (B) chromosomes which appear to have arisen recently. These chromosomes behave as genomic parasites because they are harmful for the individuals carrying them and show meiotic drive in the initial stages of population invasion. The rapid increase in B chromosome frequency at intrapopulation level is thus granted by meiotic drive, but its spread among populations most likely depends on interpopulation gene flow. We analyze here the population genetic structure in 10 natural populations from two regions (in the south and east) of the Iberian Peninsula. The southern populations were coastal whereas the eastern ones were inland populations located at 260–655 m altitude. The analysis of 97 ISSR markers revealed significant genetic differentiation among populations (average GST = 0.129), and the Structure software and AMOVA indicated a significant genetic differentiation between southern and eastern populations. There was also significant isolation by distance (IBD) between populations. Remarkably, these results were roughly similar to those found when only the markers showing low or no dropout were included, suggesting that allelic dropout had negligible effects on population genetic analysis. We conclude that high gene flow helped this parasitic B chromosome to spread through most of the geographical range of the subspecies E. plorans plorans.This study was supported by a grant from the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (CGL2009-11917), and was partially performed by FEDER funds. MIMP was supported by a fellowship (FPU) from the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación

Higher levels of glutamate in the associative-striatum of subjects with prodromal symptoms of schizophrenia and patients with first-episode psychosis

The glutamatergic and dopaminergic systems are thought to be involved in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. Their interaction has been widely documented and may have a role in the neurobiological basis of the disease. The aim of this study was to compare, using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS), glutamate levels in the precommissural dorsal-caudate (a dopamine-rich region) and the cerebellar cortex (negligible for dopamine) in the following: (1) 18 antipsychotic-naïve subjects with prodromal symptoms and considered to be at ultra high-risk for schizophrenia (UHR), (2) 18 antipsychotic-naïve first- episode psychosis patients (FEP), and (3) 40 age- and sex- matched healthy controls. All subjects underwent a 1H-MRS study using a 3Tesla scanner. Glutamate levels were quantified and corrected for the proportion of cerebrospinal fluid and percentage of gray matter in the voxel. The UHR and FEP groups showed higher levels of glutamate than controls, without differences between UHR and FEP. In the cerebellum, no differences were seen between the three groups. The higher glutamate level in the precommissural dorsal-caudate and not in the cerebellum of UHR and FEP suggests that a high glutamate level (a) precedes the onset of schizophrenia, and (b) is present in a dopamine-rich region previously implicated in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia.peer-reviewe

Why so serious? Theorising playful model-driven group decision support with situated affectivity

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer via the DOI in this record.An integrative approach to theorising behavioural, affective and cognitive processes in modeldriven group decision support (GDS) interventions is needed to gain insight into the (micro-)processes by which outcomes are accomplished. This paper proposes that the theoretical lens of situated affectivity, grounded in recent extensions of scaffolded mind models, is suitable to understand the performativity of affective micro-processes in model-driven GDS interventions. An illustrative vignette of a humorous micro-moment in a group decision workshop is presented to reveal the performativity of extended affective scaffolding processes for group decision development. The lens of situated affectivity constitutes a novel approach for the study of interventionist practice in the context of group decision making (and negotiation). An outlook with opportunities for future research is offered to facilitate an integrated approach to the study of cognitive-affective and behavioural micro-processes in model-driven GDS interventions.This work was supported in part by the EU FP7-ENERGY- SMARTCITIES-2012 (314277) project STEEP (Systems Thinking for Comprehensive City Efficient Energy Planning