Robust Optimisation for Hydroelectric System Operation under Uncertainty

In this paper, we propose an optimal dispatch scheme for a cascade hydroelectric power system that maximises the head levels of each dam, and minimises the spillage effects taking into account uncertainty in the net load variations, i.e., the difference between the load and the renewable resources, and inflows to the cascade. By maximising the head levels of each dam the volume of water stored, which is a metric of system resiliency, is maximised. In this regard, the operation of the cascade hydroelectric power system is robust to the variability and intermittency of renewable resources and increases system resilience to variations in climatic conditions. Thus, we demon- strate the benefits of coupling hydroelectric and photovoltaic resources. To this end, we introduce an approximate model for a cascade hydroelectric power system. We then develop correlated probabilistic forecasts for the uncertain output of renewable resources, e.g., solar generation, using historical data based on clustering and Markov chain techniques. We incorporate the gen- erated forecast scenarios in the optimal dispatch of the cascade hydroelectric power system, and define a robust variant of the developed system. However, the robust variant is intractable due to the infinite number of constraints. Using tools from robust optimisation, we reformulate the resulting problem in a tractable form that is amenable to existing numerical tools and show that the computed dispatch is immunised against uncertainty. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated by means of an actual case study involving the Seven Forks system located in Kenya, which consists of five cascaded hydroelectric power systems. With the case study we demonstrate that the Seven Forks system may be coupled with solar generation since the “price of robustness” is small; thus demonstrating the benefits of coupling hydroelectric systems with solar generatio

Extended warm and dense gas towards W49A: starburst conditions in our Galaxy?

The star formation rates in starburst galaxies are orders of magnitude higher than in local star-forming regions, and the origin of this difference is not well understood. We use sub-mm spectral line maps to characterize the physical conditions of the molecular gas in the luminous Galactic star-forming region W49A and compare them with the conditions in starburst galaxies. We probe the temperature and density structure of W49A using H_2CO and HCN line ratios over a 2'x2' (6.6x6.6 pc) field with an angular resolution of 15" (~0.8 pc) provided by the JCMT Spectral Legacy Survey. We analyze the rotation diagrams of lines with multiple transitions with corrections for optical depth and beam dilution, and estimate excitation temperatures and column densities. Comparing the observed line intensity ratios with non-LTE radiative transfer models, our results reveal an extended region (about 1'x1', equivalent to ~3x3 pc at the distance of W49A) of warm (> 100 K) and dense (>10^5 cm^-3) molecular gas, with a mass of 2x10^4 - 2x10^5 M_Sun (by applying abundances derived for other regions of massive star-formation). These temperatures and densities in W49A are comparable to those found in clouds near the center of the Milky Way and in starburst galaxies. The highly excited gas is likely to be heated via shocks from the stellar winds of embedded, O-type stars or alternatively due to UV irradiation, or possibly a combination of these two processes. Cosmic rays, X-ray irradiation and gas-grain collisional heating are less likely to be the source of the heating in the case of W49A.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A; 11 pages, 9 figure

Capturing Spatio-Temporal Dependencies in the Probabilistic Forecasting of Distribution Locational Marginal Prices

IEEE This paper presents a new spatio-temporal framework for the day-ahead probabilistic forecasting of Distribution Locational Marginal Prices (DLMPs). The approach relies on a recurrent neural network, whose architecture is enriched by introducing a deep bidirectional variant designed to capture the complex time dynamics in multi-step forecasts. In order to account for nodal price differentiation (arising from grid constraints) within a procedure that is scalable to large distribution systems, nodal DLMPs are predicted individually by a single model guided by a generic representation of the grid. This strategy offers the additional benefit to enable cold-start forecasting for new nodes with no history. Indeed, in case of topological changes, e.g. building of a new home or installation of photovoltaic panels, the forecaster intrinsically leverages the statistical information learned from neighbouring nodes to predict the new DLMP, without needing any modification of the tool. The approach is evaluated, along with several other methods, on a radial low voltage network. Outcomes highlight that relying on a compact model is a key component to boost its generalization capabilities in high-dimensionality, while indicating that the proposed tool is effective for both temporal and spatial learning

Population Synthesis for Neutron Star Systems with Intrinsic Kicks

We use a Monte Carlo binary synthesis code to model the formation and evolution of neutron star systems including high-mass X-ray binaries, low-mass X-ray binaries, double neutron star systems and radio pulsars. Our focus is on the signature imprinted on such systems due to natal kicks to neutron stars over and above that imparted by orbital motions. The code incorporates the effect of the galactic potential (including rotation) on the velocities of these systems. A comparison between our models and the observations leads us to infer mean natal kicks between 400-500 km/s. Moreover, to be consistent with all the data, we require a bimodal kick distribution with one peak in the distribution near 0 km/s and the other above 600 km/s.Comment: 41 pages total, 24 text+tables pages, 17 figures, AASTeX, Accepted for publication in Ap

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure

Intervening with Urinary Tract Infections Using Anti-Adhesives Based on the Crystal Structure of the FimH–Oligomannose-3 Complex

Escherichia coli strains adhere to the normally sterile human uroepithelium using type 1 pili, that are long, hairy surface organelles exposing a mannose-binding FimH adhesin at the tip. A small percentage of adhered bacteria can successfully invade bladder cells, presumably via pathways mediated by the high-mannosylated uroplakin-Ia and alpha3beta1 integrins found throughout the uroepithelium. Invaded bacteria replicate and mature into dense, biofilm-like inclusions in preparation of fluxing and of infection of neighbouring cells, being the major cause of the troublesome recurrent urinary tract infections.We demonstrate that alpha-D-mannose based inhibitors of FimH not only block bacterial adhesion on uroepithelial cells but also antagonize invasion and biofilm formation. Heptyl alpha-D-mannose prevents binding of type 1-piliated E. coli to the human bladder cell line 5637 and reduces both adhesion and invasion of the UTI89 cystitis isolate instilled in mouse bladder via catheterization. Heptyl alpha-D-mannose also specifically inhibited biofilm formation at micromolar concentrations. The structural basis of the great inhibitory potential of alkyl and aryl alpha-D-mannosides was elucidated in the crystal structure of the FimH receptor-binding domain in complex with oligomannose-3. FimH interacts with Man alpha1,3Man beta1,4GlcNAc beta1,4GlcNAc in an extended binding site. The interactions along the alpha1,3 glycosidic bond and the first beta1,4 linkage to the chitobiose unit are conserved with those of FimH with butyl alpha-D-mannose. The strong stacking of the central mannose with the aromatic ring of Tyr48 is congruent with the high affinity found for synthetic inhibitors in which this mannose is substituted for by an aromatic group.The potential of ligand-based design of antagonists of urinary tract infections is ruled by the structural mimicry of natural epitopes and extends into blocking of bacterial invasion, intracellular growth and capacity to fluxing and of recurrence of the infection

Evidence for 'critical slowing down' in seagrass:a stress gradient experiment at the southern limit of its range

The theory of critical slowing down, i.e. the increasing recovery times of complex systems close to tipping points, has been proposed as an early warning signal for collapse. Empirical evidence for the reality of such warning signals is still rare in ecology. We studied this on Zostera noltii intertidal seagrass meadows at their southern range limit, the Banc d'Arguin, Mauritania. We analyse the environmental covariates of recovery rates using structural equation modelling (SEM), based on an experiment in which we assessed whether recovery after disturbances (i.e. seagrass & infauna removal) depends on stress intensity (increasing with elevation) and disturbance patch size (1 m(2) vs. 9 m(2)). The SEM analyses revealed that higher biofilm density and sediment accretion best explained seagrass recovery rates. Experimental disturbances were followed by slow rates of recovery, regrowth occurring mainly in the coolest months of the year. Macrofauna recolonisation lagged behind seagrass recovery. Overall, the recovery rate was six times slower in the high intertidal zone than in the low zone. The large disturbances in the low zone recovered faster than the small ones in the high zone. This provides empirical evidence for critical slowing down with increasing desiccation stress in an intertidal seagrass system

A Virtual Testing Approach for Laminated Composites Based on Micromechanics

International audienceThe chapter deals with a crucial question for the design of composite structures: how can one predict the evolution of damage up to and including final fracture? Virtual testing, whose goal is to drastically reduce the huge number of industrial tests involved in current characterization procedures, constitutes one of today’s main industrial challenges. In this work, one revisits our multiscale modeling answer through its practical aspects. Some complements regarding identification, kinking, and crack initiation are also given. Finally, the current capabilities and limits of this approach are discussed, as well as the computational challenges that are inherent to “Virtual Structural Testing.