Turning accounting for emissions rights inside out as well as upside down

Peer reviewedPostprin

Dynamics of early establishment of SARS-CoV-2 VOC Omicron lineages in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Brazil is one of the nations most affected by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The introduction and establishment of new virus variants can be related to an increase in cases and fatalities. The emergence of Omicron, the most modified SARS-CoV-2 variant, caused alarm for the public health of Brazil. In this study, we examined the effects of the Omicron introduction in Minas Gerais (MG), the second-most populous state of Brazil. A total of 430 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) samples from November 2021 to June 2022 from Belo Horizonte (BH) city were sequenced. These newly sequenced genomes comprise 72% of all previously available SARS-CoV-2 genomes for the city. Evolutionary analysis of novel viral genomes reveals that a great diversity of Omicron sublineages have circulated in BH, a pattern in-keeping with observations across Brazil more generally. Bayesian phylogeographic reconstructions indicate that this diversity is a product of a large number of international and national importations. As observed previously, São Paulo state is shown as a significant hub for viral spread throughout the country, contributing to around 70% of all viral Omicron introductions detected in MG

The role of sex separation in neutral speciation

Neutral speciation mechanisms based on isolation by distance and sexual selection, termed topopatric, have recently been shown to describe the observed patterns of abundance distributions and species-area relationships. Previous works have considered this type of process only in the context of hermaphrodic populations. In this work we extend a hermaphroditic model of topopatric speciation to populations where individuals are explicitly separated into males and females. We show that for a particular carrying capacity speciation occurs under similar conditions, but the number of species generated decreases as compared to the hermaphroditic case. Evolution results in fewer species having more abundant populations.Comment: 18 pages + 8 figure

Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals.

The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma's spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time periods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma's detection, and were largely transient after Gamma's detection, subsiding with hospital demand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil's COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil's COVID-19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries. NOTE: The following manuscript has appeared as 'Report 46 - Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals' at https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/91875 . ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY: COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity

Changes in Health Perceptions after Exposure to Human Suffering: Using Discrete Emotions to Understand Underlying Processes

Background: The aim of this study was to examine whether exposure to human suffering is associated with negative changes in perceptions about personal health. We further examined the relation of possible health perception changes, to changes in five discrete emotions (i.e., fear, guilt, hostility/anger, and joviality), as a guide to understand the processes underlying health perception changes, provided that each emotion conveys information regarding triggering conditions. Methodology/Findings: An experimental group (N = 47) was exposed to images of human affliction, whereas a control group (N = 47) was exposed to relaxing images. Participants in the experimental group reported more health anxiety and health value, as well as lower health-related optimism and internal health locus of control, in comparison to participants exposed to relaxing images. They also reported more fear, guilt, hostility and sadness, as well as less joviality. Changes in each health perception were related to changes in particular emotions. Conclusion: These findings imply that health perceptions are shaped in a constant dialogue with the representations about the broader world. Furthermore, it seems that the core of health perception changes lies in the acceptance that personal well-being is subject to several potential threats, as well as that people cannot fully control many of the factors the determine their own well-being

Does Sex Speed Up Evolutionary Rate and Increase Biodiversity?

Most empirical and theoretical studies have shown that sex increases the rate of evolution, although evidence of sex constraining genomic and epigenetic variation and slowing down evolution also exists. Faster rates with sex have been attributed to new gene combinations, removal of deleterious mutations, and adaptation to heterogeneous environments. Slower rates with sex have been attributed to removal of major genetic rearrangements, the cost of finding a mate, vulnerability to predation, and exposure to sexually transmitted diseases. Whether sex speeds or slows evolution, the connection between reproductive mode, the evolutionary rate, and species diversity remains largely unexplored. Here we present a spatially explicit model of ecological and evolutionary dynamics based on DNA sequence change to study the connection between mutation, speciation, and the resulting biodiversity in sexual and asexual populations. We show that faster speciation can decrease the abundance of newly formed species and thus decrease long-term biodiversity. In this way, sex can reduce diversity relative to asexual populations, because it leads to a higher rate of production of new species, but with lower abundances. Our results show that reproductive mode and the mechanisms underlying it can alter the link between mutation, evolutionary rate, speciation and biodiversity and we suggest that a high rate of evolution may not be required to yield high biodiversity

Imageability ratings across languages

Imageability is a psycholinguistic variable that indicates how well a word gives rise to a mental image or sensory experience. Imageability ratings are used extensively in psycholinguistic, neuropsychological, and aphasiological studies. However, little formal knowledge exists about whether and how these ratings are associated between and within languages. Fifteen imageability databases were cross-correlated using nonparametric statistics. Some of these corresponded to unpublished data collected within a European research network-the Collaboration of Aphasia Trialists (COST IS1208). All but four of the correlations were significant. The average strength of the correlations (rho = .68) and the variance explained (R (2) = 46%) were moderate. This implies that factors other than imageability may explain 54% of the results. Imageability ratings often correlate across languages. Different possibly interacting factors may explain the moderate strength and variance explained in the correlations: (1) linguistic and cultural factors; (2) intrinsic differences between the databases; (3) range effects; (4) small numbers of words in each database, equivalent words, and participants; and (5) mean age of the participants. The results suggest that imageability ratings may be used cross-linguistically. However, further understanding of the factors explaining the variance in the correlations will be needed before research and practical recommendations can be made