Mapping and modelling the geographical distribution and environmental limits of podoconiosis in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND Ethiopia is assumed to have the highest burden of podoconiosis globally, but the geographical distribution and environmental limits and correlates are yet to be fully investigated. In this paper we use data from a nationwide survey to address these issues. METHODOLOGY Our analyses are based on data arising from the integrated mapping of podoconiosis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) conducted in 2013, supplemented by data from an earlier mapping of LF in western Ethiopia in 2008-2010. The integrated mapping used woreda (district) health offices' reports of podoconiosis and LF to guide selection of survey sites. A suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to investigate environmental limits and predict the probability of podoconiosis occurrence. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations of Ethiopia. In 41.9% of surveyed districts no cases of podoconiosis were identified, with all districts in Affar, Dire Dawa, Somali and Gambella regional states lacking the disease. The disease was most common, with lymphoedema positivity rate exceeding 5%, in the central highlands of Ethiopia, in Amhara, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regional states. BRT modelling indicated that the probability of podoconiosis occurrence increased with increasing altitude, precipitation and silt fraction of soil and decreased with population density and clay content. Based on the BRT model, we estimate that in 2010, 34.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.2-51.7) million people (i.e. 43.8%; 95% CI: 25.3-64.8% of Ethiopia's national population) lived in areas environmentally suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis. CONCLUSIONS Podoconiosis is more widespread in Ethiopia than previously estimated, but occurs in distinct geographical regions that are tied to identifiable environmental factors. The resultant maps can be used to guide programme planning and implementation and estimate disease burden in Ethiopia. This work provides a framework with which the geographical limits of podoconiosis could be delineated at a continental scale

A Landscapeâ Based Classification of Fish Assemblages in Sampled and Unsampled Lakes

We related fish species patterns and landscapeâ scale environmental data from 216 Michigan lakes to identify repeatable types of fish assemblages, identify environmental factors related to assemblage types, and classify fish assemblages in unsampled lakes. Multivariate regression tree modeling of fish species abundances identified six assemblage types that were explained by degreeâ days during the iceâ free period, lake surface area, and mean lake surface temperature. Warmwater species dominated southern lakes, while coolwater and coldwater species had higher abundances in northern lakes. Coolwater species were present in large southern lakes, whereas warmwater species were excluded from northern lakes that had low mean surface temperatures or low degreeâ days. These results suggest that patterns of lake fish assemblages are shaped by differences in climate as well as lakeâ specific differences in surface temperature regimes and in vertical availability of coldwater and coolwater habitats. Because we related fish patterns to readily available landscapeâ level data, our approach can be used to characterize fish assemblages in all lakes across broad geographic extents.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142256/1/tafs0414.pd

Deep reefs of the Great Barrier Reef offer limited thermal refuge during mass coral bleaching

Our rapidly warming climate is threatening coral reefs as thermal anomalies trigger mass coral bleaching events. Deep (or "mesophotic") coral reefs are hypothesised to act as major ecological refuges from mass bleaching, but empirical assessments are limited. We evaluated the potential of mesophotic reefs within the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and adjacent Coral Sea to act as thermal refuges by characterising long-term temperature conditions and assessing impacts during the 2016 mass bleaching event. We found that summer upwelling initially provided thermal relief at upper mesophotic depths (40 m), but then subsided resulting in anomalously warm temperatures even at depth. Bleaching impacts on the deep reefs were severe (40% bleached and 6% dead colonies at 40 m) but significantly lower than at shallower depths (60-69% bleached and 8-12% dead at 5-25 m). While we confirm that deep reefs can offer refuge from thermal stress, we highlight important caveats in terms of the transient nature of the protection and their limited ability to provide broad ecological refuge.XL Catlin Seaview Survey; Waitt Foundation; XL Catlin Group; Underwater Earth; University of Queensland; ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DECRA) [DE160101433]; Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) [SFRH/BPD/110285/2015]; Australian Research Council (ARC

Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Annual Pollen Index Recorded by Sites Belonging to the Portuguese Aerobiology Network

This study presents the findings of a 10-year survey carried out by the Portuguese Aerobiology Network (RPA) at seven pollen-monitoring stations: five mainland stations (Oporto, Coimbra, Lisbon, Évora and Portimão) and two insular stations [Funchal (Madeira archipelago) and Ponta Delgada (Azores archipelago)]. The main aim of the study was to examine spatial and temporal variations in the Annual Pollen Index (API) with particular focus on the most frequently recorded pollen types. Pollen monitoring (2003–2012) was carried out using Hirst-type volumetric spore traps, following the minimum recommendations proposed by the European Aerobiology Society Working Group on Quality Control. Daily pollen data were examined for similarities using the Kruskal–Wallis nonparametric test and multivariate regression trees. Simple linear regression analysis was used to describe trends in API. The airborne pollen spectrum at RPA stations is dominated by important allergenic pollen types such as Poaceae, Olea and Urticaceae. Statistically significant differences were witnessed in the API recorded at the seven stations. Mean API is higher in the southern mainland cities, e.g. Évora, Lisbon and Portimão, and lower in insular and littoral cities. There were also a number of significant trends in API during the 10-year study. This report identifies spatial and temporal variations in the amount of airborne pollen recorded annually in the Portuguese territory. There were also a number of significant changes in API, but no general increases in the amount of airborne pollen

CT screened arterial calcification as a risk factor for mortality after trauma

BACKGROUND: Arterial calcification on Computerised Tomography (CT) is a marker of cardiovascular disease. It is predictive of future adverse cardiac events and mortality in many disease states. The incidence of arterial disease and its impact on outcomes of the injured is not known. The objectives of this study were to describe the incidence of arterial calcification in trauma patients, and establish its impact on mortality. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of all injured patients aged over 45 years presenting to a major trauma centre over a 34-month period. The presence and quantity of coronary, aortic and abdominal arterial calcification on admission CT scans of the chest, abdomen and pelvis was established, and the association between cardiovascular disease and in-hospital mortality following trauma was determined. RESULTS: Five hundred ninety-one patients were included in the study. Cardiac calcium was visible on 432 (73 %) scans, and abdominal arterial calcification on 472 (79.9 %). Fifty (8.5 %) patients died. Patients with Superior Mesenteric (SMA) and Common Iliac Artery calcification had a significantly higher mortality than those without (p < 0.01). In multivariarate analysis, only SMA calcification was independently associated with mortality (OR 2.462, 95 % CI 1.08–5.60, p = 0.032). Coronary calcium demonstrated no independent statistical relationship with death (Left Anterior Descending Artery OR 1.189, 95 % CI 0.51–2.78, Circumflex OR 1.290, 95 % CI 0.56–2.98, Right Coronary Artery OR 0.483, 95 % CI 0.21–1.10). DISCUSSION: This study has demonstrated that the identification of arterial calcification on admission CT scans of trauma patients is possible. Calcification was common, and present in around three-quarters of injured individuals over the age of 45 years. SMA calcium was an independent predictor of mortality. However, whilst the presence of arterial calcium demonstrated a tendency towards lower survival, this association was not significant in other territories, including the coronary arteries. Future studies should investigate further the association and pathophysiology linking SMA disease and mortality in trauma, in addition to the relationship between longer tem survival, adverse cardiac events and arterial calcification in injured patients. CONCLUSIONS: Arterial calcification can be reliably identified on trauma CT scans, and is common in injured patients. Abdominal vascular calcification appears to be a better predictor of mortality than coronary artery disease. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13049-016-0317-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Models of marine fish biodiversity : assessing predictors from three habitat classification schemes

Prioritising biodiversity conservation requires knowledge of where biodiversity occurs. Such knowledge, however, is often lacking. New technologies for collecting biological and physical data coupled with advances in modelling techniques could help address these gaps and facilitate improved management outcomes. Here we examined the utility of environmental data, obtained using different methods, for developing models of both uni- and multivariate biodiversity metrics. We tested which biodiversity metrics could be predicted best and evaluated the performance of predictor variables generated from three types of habitat data: acoustic multibeam sonar imagery, predicted habitat classification, and direct observer habitat classification. We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model metrics of fish species richness, abundance and biomass, and multivariate regression trees (MRT) to model biomass and abundance of fish functional groups. We compared model performance using different sets of predictors and estimated the relative influence of individual predictors. Models of total species richness and total abundance performed best; those developed for endemic species performed worst. Abundance models performed substantially better than corresponding biomass models. In general, BRT and MRTs developed using predicted habitat classifications performed less well than those using multibeam data. The most influential individual predictor was the abiotic categorical variable from direct observer habitat classification and models that incorporated predictors from direct observer habitat classification consistently outperformed those that did not. Our results show that while remotely sensed data can offer considerable utility for predictive modeling, the addition of direct observer habitat classification data can substantially improve model performance. Thus it appears that there are aspects of marine habitats that are important for modeling metrics of fish biodiversity that are not fully captured by remotely sensed data. As such, the use of remotely sensed data to model biodiversity represents a compromise between model performance and data availability

The effects of meteorological factors on the occurrence of Ganoderma sp. spores in the air

Ganoderma sp. is an airborne fungal spore type known to trigger respiratory allergy symptoms in sensitive patients. Aiming to reduce the risk for allergic individuals, we analysed fungal spore circulation in Szczecin, Poland, and its dependence on meteorological conditions. Statistical models for the airborne spore concentrations of Ganoderma sp.—one of the most abundant fungal taxa in the area—were developed. Aerobiological sampling was conducted over 2004–2008 using a volumetric Lanzoni trap. Simultaneously, the following meteorological parameters were recorded: daily level of precipitation, maximum and average wind speed, relative humidity and maximum, minimum, average and dew point temperatures. These data were used as the explaining variables. Due to the non-linearity and non-normality of the data set, the applied modelling techniques were artificial neural networks (ANN) and mutlivariate regression trees (MRT). The obtained classification and MRT models predicted threshold conditions above which Ganoderma sp. appeared in the air. It turned out that dew point temperature was the main factor influencing the presence or absence of Ganoderma sp. spores. Further analysis of spore seasons revealed that the airborne fungal spore concentration depended only slightly on meteorological factors

Development and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Models for Prediction of Heat Transfer and Thermal Microenvironments of Corals

We present Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models of the coupled dynamics of water flow, heat transfer and irradiance in and around corals to predict temperatures experienced by corals. These models were validated against controlled laboratory experiments, under constant and transient irradiance, for hemispherical and branching corals. Our CFD models agree very well with experimental studies. A linear relationship between irradiance and coral surface warming was evident in both the simulation and experimental result agreeing with heat transfer theory. However, CFD models for the steady state simulation produced a better fit to the linear relationship than the experimental data, likely due to experimental error in the empirical measurements. The consistency of our modelling results with experimental observations demonstrates the applicability of CFD simulations, such as the models developed here, to coral bleaching studies. A study of the influence of coral skeletal porosity and skeletal bulk density on surface warming was also undertaken, demonstrating boundary layer behaviour, and interstitial flow magnitude and temperature profiles in coral cross sections. Our models compliment recent studies showing systematic changes in these parameters in some coral colonies and have utility in the prediction of coral bleaching