Geomagnetic extreme statistics for Europe

Rapidly changing geomagnetic field variations constitute a natural hazard, for example to grounded power grids and pipeline networks. To understand this hazard we have continuous magnetic measurements across the world for typically less than 100 years. Much of the older data is also in analogue form, or is only available digitally as hourly or daily magnetic indices or mean levels. So it may not yet be clear what the true extremes in geomagnetic variation are, particularly on time scales - seconds to minutes - that are relevant for estimating the hazard to technological systems. We therefore use a number of decades of one minute samples of magnetic data from observatories in Europe, together with the technique of 'extreme value statistics', to explore estimated maxima in field variations in the horizontal strength and in the declination of the field. These maxima are expressed, for example, in terms of the variations that might be observed on time scales of 100 and 200 years. We also examine the extremes in the one-minute rate of change of these field components on similar time scales. The results should find application in hazard assessment and navigation applications

Optical Tweezers as an Effective Tool for Spermatozoa Isolation from Mixed Forensic Samples

A single focus optical tweezer is formed when a laser beam is launched through a high numerical aperture immersion objective. This objective focuses the beam down to a diffraction-limited spot, which creates an optical trap where cells suspended in aqueous solutions can be held fixed. Spermatozoa, an often probative cell type in forensic investigations, can be captured inside this optical trap and dragged one by one across millimeter-length distances in order to create a cluster of cells which can be subsequently drawn up into a capillary for collection. Sperm cells are then ejected onto a sterile cover slip, counted, and transferred to a tube for DNA analysis workflow. The objective of this research was to optimize sperm cell collection for maximum DNA yield, and to determine the number of trapped sperm cells necessary to produce a full STR profile. A varying number of sperm cells from both a single-source semen sample and a mock sexual assault sample were isolated utilizing optical tweezers and processed using conventional STR analysis methods. Results demonstrated that approximately 50 trapped spermatozoa were required to obtain a consistently full DNA profile. A complete, single-source DNA profile was also achieved by isolating sperm cells via optical trapping from a mixture of sperm and vaginal epithelial cells. Based on these results, optical tweezers are a viable option for forensic applications such as separation of mixed populations of cells in forensic evidence

1.6 W continuous-wave Raman laser using low-loss synthetic diamond

Low-birefringence (Δn<2x10−6), low-loss (absorption coefficient <0.006cm−1 at 1064nm), single-crystal, synthetic diamond has been exploited in a CW Raman laser. The diamond Raman laser was intracavity pumped within a Nd:YVO4 laser. At the Raman laser wavelength of 1240nm, CW output powers of 1.6W and a slope efficiency with respect to the absorbed diode-laser pump power (at 808nm) of ~18% were measured. In quasi-CW operation, maximum on-time output powers of 2.8W (slope efficiency ~24%) were observed, resulting in an absorbed diode-laser pump power to the Raman laser output power conversion efficiency of 13%

Quantifying extreme behaviour in geomagnetic activity

Understanding the extremes in geomagnetic activity is an important component in understanding just how severe conditions can become in the terrestrial space environment. Extreme activity also has consequences for technological systems. On the ground, extreme geomagnetic behavior has an impact on navigation and position accuracy and the operation of power grids and pipeline networks. We therefore use a number of decades of one-minute mean magnetic data from magnetic observatories in Europe, together with the technique of extreme value statistics, to provide a preliminary exploration of the extremes in magnetic field variations and their one-minute rates of change. These extremes are expressed in terms of the variations that might be observed every 100 and 200 years in the horizontal strength and in the declination of the field. We find that both measured and extrapolated extreme values generally increase with geomagnetic latitude (as might be expected), though there is a marked maximum in estimated extreme levels between about 53 and 62 degrees north. At typical midlatitude European observatories (55–60 degrees geomagnetic latitude), compass variations may reach approximately 3–8 degrees/minute, and horizontal field changes may reach 1000–4000 nT/minute, in one magnetic storm once every 100 years. For storm return periods of 200 years the equivalent figures are 4–11 degrees/minute and 1000–6000 nT/minute

Protracted treatment with corticosterone reduces breeding success in a long-lived bird

Determining the physiological mechanisms underpinning life-history decisions is essential for understanding the constraints under which life-history strategies can evolve. In long-lived species, where the residual reproductive value of breeders is high, adult survival is a key contributor to lifetime reproductive success. We therefore expect that when adult survival is compromised during reproduction, mechanisms will evolve to redirect resources away from reproduction, with implications for reproductive hormones, adult body mass, nest attendance behaviour and breeding success. We investigated whether manipulating corticosterone, to simulate exposure to an environmental stressor, affected the secretion of prolactin and breeding success in the black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla. We used implanted Alzet® osmotic pumps to administer corticosterone to incubating kittiwakes at a constant rate over a period of approximately eight days. Manipulated birds were compared with sham implanted birds and control birds, which had no implants. There was no significant difference in the body mass of captured individuals at the time of implantation and implant removal. Corticosterone-implanted males showed lower nest attendance during the chick rearing period compared to sham-implanted males; the opposite pattern was found in females. Corticosterone treated birds showed a marginally significant reduction in breeding success compared to sham-implanted individuals, with all failures occurring at least one week after implant removal. However, prolactin concentrations at implant removal were not significantly different from initial values. We were unable to measure the profile of change in corticosterone during the experiment. However, our results suggest a delayed effect of elevated corticosterone on breeding success rather than an immediate suppression of prolactin concentrations causing premature failure

Decline in Antigenicity of Tumor Markers by Storage Time Using Pathology Sections Cut From Tissue Microarrays.

Sectioning a whole tissue microarrray (TMA block) and storing the sections maximizes the number of sections obtained, but may impair the antigenicity of the stored sections. We have investigated the impact of TMA section storage on antigenicity. First, we reexamined existing TMA data to determine whether antigenicity in stored sections changes over time. Component scores for each marker, based on cellular compartment of staining and score-type, were evaluated separately. Residual components scores adjusted for grade, tumor size, and node positivity, were regressed on the number of days storage to evaluate the effect of storage time. Storage time ranged from 2 to 1897 days, and the mean change in antigenicity per year ranged from -0.88 (95% confidence interval, -1.11 to -0.65) to 0.035 (95% confidence interval, 0.016-0.054). Further analysis showed no significant improvement in the fit of survival models if storage time adjusted scores were included in the models rather than unadjusted scores. We then compared 3 ways of processing TMA sections after cutting-immediate staining, staining after 1 year, and staining after 1 year coated in wax-on the immunohistochemistry results for: progesterone receptor, a routinely used, robust antibody, and MKI67, which is generally considered less robust. The progesterone receptor scores for stored sections were similar to those for unstored sections, whereas the MKI67 scores for stored sections were substantially different to those for unstored sections. Wax coating made little difference to the results. Biomarker antigenicity shows a small decline over time that is unlikely to have an important effect on studies of prognostic biomarkers.We acknowledge the SEARCH team, the National Cancer Registration Service Eastern Office and Information Centre, the Histopathology Core Facility at the CRUK Cambridge Research Institute for immunohistochemical staining and digital image acquisition and the Human Research Tissue Bank, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. This work was funded through a programme grant from Cancer Research UK (C490/A10119, C490/A10124 and C490/A16561) and funding from the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre.This is the final version of the article. It was first published by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins at http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/PAI.000000000000017

Predicting Shielding Effectiveness of Populated Enclosures Using Absorption Cross Section of PCBs

Shielding effectiveness (SE) is an important measure of how well an enclosure reduces the electromagnetic (EM) field incident upon it. Commonly, when the shielding effectiveness of an enclosure is stated it is for the case when the enclosure is empty. Including contents such as printed circuit boards (PCBs) in the enclosure will affect the shielding effectiveness as the PCB absorbs EM energy. One technique of determining how much energy a PCB absorbs is to measure its absorption cross section (ACS) using a reverberation chamber (RC). The measured ACS can be used to predict the shielding effectiveness of an enclosure when the PCB is inside it using power balance techniques. In this paper the ACS of a number of PCBs are measured both individually and in closely stacked groups. This information is then used to show how the ACS can be used to calculate shielding effectiveness and the results are compared to direct measurement of the SE of the enclosure containing a PCB. Knowledge of the ACS of typical or particular PCBs could be used by engineers to estimate the real shielding effectiveness of an enclosure with contents, when designing electronic systems

School-based interventions to prevent anxiety, depression and conduct disorders in children and young people:a systematic review, network meta-analysis and economic evaluation

Background: Schools in the UK increasingly have to respond to anxiety, depression and conduct disorder as key causes of morbidity in children and young people. Objective: The objective was to assess the comparative effectiveness of educational setting-based interventions for the prevention of anxiety, depression and conduct disorder in children and young people. Design: This study comprised a systematic review, a network meta-analysis and an economic evaluation. Data sources: The databases MEDLINE, EMBASE™ (Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands), PsycInfo® (American Psychological Association, Washington, DC, USA) and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) were searched to 4 April 2018, and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) was searched on 22 May 2019 for economic evaluations. No language or date filters were applied. Main outcomes: The main outcomes were post-intervention self-reported anxiety, depression or conduct disorder symptoms. Review methods: Randomised/quasi-randomised trials of universal or targeted interventions for the prevention of anxiety, depression or conduct disorder in children and young people aged 4–18 years were included. Screening was conducted independently by two reviewers. Data extraction was conducted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Intervention- and component-level network meta-analyses were conducted in OpenBUGS. A review of the economic literature and a cost–consequence analysis were conducted. Results: A total of 142 studies were included in the review, and 109 contributed to the network meta-analysis. Of the 109 studies, 57 were rated as having an unclear risk of bias for random sequence generation and allocation concealment. Heterogeneity was moderate. In universal secondary school settings, mindfulness/relaxation interventions [standardised mean difference (SMD) –0.65, 95% credible interval (CrI) –1.14 to –0.19] and cognitive–behavioural interventions (SMD –0.15, 95% CrI –0.34 to 0.04) may be effective for anxiety. Cognitive–behavioural interventions incorporating a psychoeducation component may be effective (SMD –0.30, 95% CrI –0.59 to –0.01) at preventing anxiety immediately post intervention. There was evidence that exercise was effective in preventing anxiety in targeted secondary school settings (SMD –0.47, 95% CrI –0.86 to –0.09). There was weak evidence that cognitive–behavioural interventions may prevent anxiety in universal (SMD –0.07, 95% CrI –0.23 to 0.05) and targeted (SMD –0.38, 95% CrI –0.84 to 0.07) primary school settings. There was weak evidence that cognitive–behavioural (SMD –0.04, 95% CrI –0.16 to 0.07) and cognitive–behavioural + interpersonal therapy (SMD –0.18, 95% CrI –0.46 to 0.08) may be effective in preventing depression in universal secondary school settings. Third-wave (SMD –0.35, 95% CrI –0.70 to 0.00) and cognitive–behavioural interventions (SMD –0.11, 95% CrI –0.28 to 0.05) incorporating a psychoeducation component may be effective at preventing depression immediately post intervention. There was no evidence of intervention effectiveness in targeted secondary, targeted primary or universal primary school settings post intervention. The results for university settings were unreliable because of inconsistency in the network meta-analysis. A narrative summary was reported for five conduct disorder prevention studies, all in primary school settings. None reported the primary outcome at the primary post-intervention time point. The economic evidence review reported heterogeneous findings from six studies. Taking the perspective of a single school budget and based on cognitive–behavioural therapy intervention costs in universal secondary school settings, the cost–consequence analysis estimated an intervention cost of £43 per student. Limitations: The emphasis on disorder-specific prevention excluded broader mental health interventions and restricted the number of eligible conduct disorder prevention studies. Restricting the study to interventions delivered in the educational setting may have limited the number of eligible university-level interventions. Conclusions: There was weak evidence of the effectiveness of school-based, disorder-specific prevention interventions, although effects were modest and the evidence not robust. Cognitive–behavioural therapy-based interventions may be more effective if they include a psychoeducation component. Future work: Future trials for prevention of anxiety and depression should evaluate cognitive–behavioural interventions with and without a psychoeducation component, and include mindfulness/relaxation or exercise comparators, with sufficient follow-up. Cost implications must be adequately measured. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016048184. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 9, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems

Humanity faces a major global challenge in achieving wellbeing for all, while simultaneously ensuring that the biophysical processes and ecosystem services that underpin wellbeing are exploited within scientifically informed boundaries of sustainability. We propose a framework for defining the safe and just operating space for humanity that integrates social wellbeing into the original planetary boundaries concept (Rockström et al., 2009a,b) for application at regional scales. We argue that such a framework can: (1) increase the policy impact of the boundaries concept as most governance takes place at the regional rather than planetary scale; (2) contribute to the understanding and dissemination of complexity thinking throughout governance and policy-making; (3) act as a powerful metaphor and communication tool for regional equity and sustainability. We demonstrate the approach in two rural Chinese localities where we define the safe and just operating space that lies between an environmental ceiling and a social foundation from analysis of time series drawn from monitored and palaeoecological data, and from social survey statistics respectively. Agricultural intensification has led to poverty reduction, though not eradicated it, but at the expense of environmental degradation. Currently, the environmental ceiling is exceeded for degraded water quality at both localities even though the least well-met social standards are for available piped water and sanitation. The conjunction of these social needs and environmental constraints around the issue of water access and quality illustrates the broader value of the safe and just operating space approach for sustainable development

Prognostic value of test(s) for O6-methylguanine–DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation for predicting overall survival in people with glioblastoma treated with temozolomide

BACKGROUND: Glioblastoma is an aggressive form of brain cancer. Approximately five in 100 people with glioblastoma survive for five years past diagnosis. Glioblastomas that have a particular modification to their DNA (called methylation) in a particular region (the O(6)‐methylguanine–DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter) respond better to treatment with chemotherapy using a drug called temozolomide. OBJECTIVES: To determine which method for assessing MGMT methylation status best predicts overall survival in people diagnosed with glioblastoma who are treated with temozolomide. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, BIOSIS, Web of Science Conference Proceedings Citation Index to December 2018, and examined reference lists. For economic evaluation studies, we additionally searched NHS Economic Evaluation Database (EED) up to December 2014. SELECTION CRITERIA: Eligible studies were longitudinal (cohort) studies of adults with diagnosed glioblastoma treated with temozolomide with/without radiotherapy/surgery. Studies had to have related MGMT status in tumour tissue (assessed by one or more method) with overall survival and presented results as hazard ratios or with sufficient information (e.g. Kaplan‐Meier curves) for us to estimate hazard ratios. We focused mainly on studies comparing two or more methods, and listed brief details of articles that examined a single method of measuring MGMT promoter methylation. We also sought economic evaluations conducted alongside trials, modelling studies and cost analysis. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently undertook all steps of the identification and data extraction process for multiple‐method studies. We assessed risk of bias and applicability using our own modified and extended version of the QUality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. We compared different techniques, exact promoter regions (5'‐cytosine‐phosphate‐guanine‐3' (CpG) sites) and thresholds for interpretation within studies by examining hazard ratios. We performed meta‐analyses for comparisons of the three most commonly examined methods (immunohistochemistry (IHC), methylation‐specific polymerase chain reaction (MSP) and pyrosequencing (PSQ)), with ratios of hazard ratios (RHR), using an imputed value of the correlation between results based on the same individuals. MAIN RESULTS: We included 32 independent cohorts involving 3474 people that compared two or more methods. We found evidence that MSP (CpG sites 76 to 80 and 84 to 87) is more prognostic than IHC for MGMT protein at varying thresholds (RHR 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.71). We also found evidence that PSQ is more prognostic than IHC for MGMT protein at various thresholds (RHR 1.36, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.84). The data suggest that PSQ (mainly at CpG sites 74 to 78, using various thresholds) is slightly more prognostic than MSP at sites 76 to 80 and 84 to 87 (RHR 1.14, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.48). Many variants of PSQ have been compared, although we did not see any strong and consistent messages from the results. Targeting multiple CpG sites is likely to be more prognostic than targeting just one. In addition, we identified and summarised 190 articles describing a single method for measuring MGMT promoter methylation status. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: PSQ and MSP appear more prognostic for overall survival than IHC. Strong evidence is not available to draw conclusions with confidence about the best CpG sites or thresholds for quantitative methods. MSP has been studied mainly for CpG sites 76 to 80 and 84 to 87 and PSQ at CpG sites ranging from 72 to 95. A threshold of 9% for CpG sites 74 to 78 performed better than higher thresholds of 28% or 29% in two of three good‐quality studies making such comparisons