Sustainable Adjustment of Global Imbalances

This paper uses NIESR’s global econometric model, NiGEM, to analyse possible adjustment paths for the US current account, if its current level of 6 per cent of GDP proves unsustainable. Nominal exchange rate shifts have only a transitory impact on current account balances, so any long-term improvement of the US current account balance would require a real and sustained reduction in domestic absorption, or a rise in foreign absorption. This could be effected through a sequence of exchange rate movements driven by a gradual rise in the risk premium on US assets. This would induce a permanent change in the real exchange rate, and would also reduce domestic absorption in the US due to a rise in real interest rates. Global policy coordination, which involved raising domestic demand in countries such as China and Japan, could speed the process of adjustment and ease the negative impact on the US economy.global imbalances, real exchange rate realignment, risk premia, US current account

An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy Choices in the Pre-EMU Period

We argue that the choice of exchange rate regime in the process of accession to the European Union and EMU can affect the growth rate of the economy in the medium term. Empirical analysis is employed. We discuss the effects of exchange rate choice, and of the timing of transition to EMU on the core accession countries using model simulations.

The impact of EMU on growth and employment

This study addresses and evaluates the impacts of the introduction of the euro on both actual and potential output and employment. In order to achieve this, a descriptive and analytical examination of developments before and after the launch of the euro is undertaken, with comparisons drawn between countries that are EMU members and non-EMU members. There are several channels through which the euro may have affected growth and employment: greater transparency and its impact on competitiveness and the effectiveness of the single market; integration of financial markets, which may raise productivity; and a more stable macroeconomic environment, which affects risk and investment decisions. We analyse the impact of each of these channels on the drivers of growth, after controlling for factors such as workforce skills, research base, openness, demographic developments and structural reform on the evolution of output. The central result of our study is that EMU affects output growth directly and also promotes reductions in output and real effective exchange rate volatility and thereby influences the accumulation of productive capital. Many potential concerns preceding the launch of the euro seem to have been unfounded, and our work suggests that the effects of EMU that we observe have been beneficial for economic growth and employment overall. Our analysis suggests that the direct positive effects of EMU are likely to be larger in the core countries, despite their recent slow growth, and that EMU may lead to agglomeration of activities.EMU, euro, euro and growth, euro and employment

Which Exchange-Rate Regime in the EMU Accession Period: An Empirical Analysis

This study is the second part of larger empirical work focused on the timing of European Monetary Union (EMU) accession and on the selection of a pre-accession exchange-rate regime. The tool of our empirical analysis used in both studies is a model simulation that benefits from a consistent macro framework and estimated model equations. Five accession countries were studied. The results demonstrate that it is important to design pre-EMU exchange-rate regimes independently, according to the characteristics of each accession country, such as openness, flexibility, or level of financial wealth. Following the European Exchange-rate Mechanism (ERM II) as a core monetary-policy strategy for the whole of the pre-EMU period may be beneficial only for some accession countries. While Poland would benefit from introducing a fixed-rate regime for the pre-EMU period, for example, the Czech Republic and Slovenia would benefit more from maintaining a floating exchange rate. For Estonia and Hungary, both options have comparable benefits.accession countries; exchange-rate regime; empirical analysis

When to Join the Eurozone: An Empirical Analysis

The paper is the first part of a broader empirical study that considers the entry timing of accession economies into the eurozone and their exchange-rate regimes between the EU entry and prior to the eurozone entry. The presented empirical analysis is based on model simulations and on the outcomes of previous work related to panel estimates of model equations for five accession economies. The first conclusion is that is not possible to search for one-for-all answers as to timing and exchange-rate regimes. Each of the accession countries should decide in accordance with specific country characteristics. According to our analysis, Poland could benefit most from entering the eurozone relatively quickly, while the Czech Republic and Hungary may benefit from a more cautious approach. This diversity reflects different characteristics such as openness, flexibility, and financial wealth. Postponing entry after 2009 would likely carry fewer additional benefits, however.accession; eurozone; empirical analysis; Czech Republic; Hungary; Poland

An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period

This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accession using newly developed econometric macromodels of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Estonia. The models allow for endogenous growth, and they have been incorporated into an existing global econometric model (NiGEM). This allows long-term projections to be made consistently with expected developments in other economies and allows full feedbacks with the rest of the world so that we can understand impacts on existing EU members as well as the candidate countries. This paper has several novel features, in that we use modern panel data techniques on short time series data in order to construct models of a number of economies. In constructing the models, we have taken special care to consider the roles of openness and foreign investment on productivity and growth. Different policies toward growth and the enhancement of technology transfer are analysed using the models, and policy advice on the accession and integration are made.accession. macro-model. panel data. transition.

Empirically testing <i>Tonnetz</i>, voice-leading, and spectral models of perceived triadic distance

We compare three contrasting models of the perceived distance between root-position major and minor chords and test them against new empirical data. The models include a recent psychoacoustic model called spectral pitch class distance, and two well-established music theoretical models – Tonnetz distance and voice-leading distance. To allow a principled challenge, in the context of these data, of the assumptions behind each of the models, we compare them with a simple “benchmark” model that simply counts the number of common tones between chords. Spectral pitch class and Tonnetz have the highest correlations with the experimental data and each other, and perform significantly better than the benchmark. The voice-leading model performs worse than the benchmark. We suggest that spectral pitch class distance provides a psychoacoustic explanation for perceived harmonic distance and its music theory representation, the Tonnetz. Scores and MIDI files of the stimuli, the experimental data, and the computational models are available in the online supplement

Introduction: Special Issue on ‘Macroeconomics of Climate Change’

Climate change is one of the most serious risks facing humanity. Temperature rises can lead to catastrophic climate and natural events that threaten livelihoods. From rising sea levels to flooding, bush fires, extreme temperatures and droughts, the economic and human cost is too large to ignore. More than 190 world leaders got together in Glasgow during November 2021 at the UN’s COP26 climate change summit to discuss progress on the Paris Agreement (COP21) and to agree on new measures to limit global warming. In Paris, countries agreed to limit global warming to well below 2° and aim for 1.5° as well as to adapt to the impacts of a changing climate and raise the necessary funding to deliver on these aims. However, actions to date were not nearly enough as highlighted by the IPCC (2018) special report. The world is still on track to reach warming above 3° by 2100. As evident from figure 1, global temperatures have been on a steadily increasing path since the start of the 20th century and this process has substantially accelerated since the beginning of the 1980s. This has been unevenly distributed, with temperatures in the Northern hemisphere being a full 1°C higher than for the 1961–1990 average, whilst temperatures in the Southern hemisphere have increased by almost 0.5°C

Multistate Hepatitis A Outbreak: Vaccination of Food Service Workers as Part of the Kentucky Outbreak Response

Background: In August 2017, a local outbreak of Hepatitis A was identified among homeless individuals in Louisville, Kentucky. This marked the first cases in what has now become recognized as the largest Hepatitis A outbreak in the US. When infection was identified in a Food Service Worker (FSW), vaccination efforts were expanded to target this group. Objective: The purpose of this study was to describe: 1) the processes used to provide access to Hepatitis A vaccine for FSWs, 2) results from the immunization activities, and 3) lessons learned from the outcomes. Methods: Through a partnership between the Louisville Metro Department of Public Health and Wellness (LMDPHW) and the University of Louisville Division of Infectious Diseases, a novel approach to vaccination was implemented. Access to vaccine was provided via on-site immunization in 66 restaurants and subsequent availability in a pop-up vaccination clinic. Data were collected using the LMDPHW data collection form and included demographics, risk factors for Hepatitis A, and vaccine documentation. Results for those vaccinated March-December 2018 were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results: On-site vaccination was provided to 1337 FSW at 66 restaurants during the seven (7) week period from March 28-May 15, 2018. This process involved a team of 42 including Advanced Practice Registered Nurses, Registered and Licensed Practical Nurses, Physicians, and UL team members. During the 35 weeks the walk-in clinic has been in operation (May 16-December 31, 2018), 3068 additional FSW were vaccinated for a total of 4405 FSWs vaccinated as part of the outbreak response. Critical partners included the Kentucky Restaurant Association and the Kentucky Nurses Association. Conclusions: This study demonstrated a successful model for vaccination of a novel population during an infectious disease outbreak and the importance of expanding partnership networks to ensure success. The outcomes emphasized the importance of the resources available in the academic community for reliable and consistent public health emergency response