Long-term electricity supply modelling in the context of developing countries: The OSeMOSYS-LEAP soft-linking approach for Ethiopia

Long-term power supply modelling is particularly important for developing countries in providing sustainable solutions to electricity problems. This study presents the first detailed and complete model of the Ethiopian electricity system while considering the unique features (dominance of traditional energy, informal economy, urban-rural divide, low electrification, supply shortage, etc.) and context of developing countries that is developed by soft-linking the OSeMOSYS (Open-Source energy Modelling System) and LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) modelling frameworks. Better system representation and design of plausible scenarios that explore the potential pathways of the future power supply and demand evolution until 2050 is done by performing sensitivity analysis. Sector wise and technological representation of supply and end-uses at a disaggregated level, assessment of centralized grid-based means and decentralized off-grid methods for improving electricity access are the main methodological contributions. Five policy scenarios are employed to explore different possible futures and balance the long-term electricity needs and resources. The improved efficiency scenario reduces the installed capacity by 9 GW which translates into approximately 11% total discounted cost saving (USD $ 4 billion). This economic benefit has made the efficiency scenario the most desirable compared to the other scenarios. Attributed to lower investment costs and abundant resource availability, the results show that renewable technologies are more competitive and favourable

Long-term evolution of energy and electricity demand forecasting: The case of Ethiopia

Long-term energy demand forecasting is crucial for any country, in particular for developing countries with rapid developments of energy needs. This study focuses on Ethiopia, a country with a highly increasing energy demand resulting mainly from the currently low share of electricity access, rapid development of industrial parks, extensive expansion of the railway network, extensive irrigation schemes for agriculture, new cement and sugar factories, housing projects, power export plan to neighboring countries, etc. These all are on top of the 2.7% average population growth. In this study, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is used to explore different possible futures and also to forecast the long-term energy requirements in Ethiopia. The planning period is 33 years from 2018 to 2050. The study employs six different scenarios to unfold the future evolution. The developed scenarios are Business-As-Usual (BAU), Growth in Electrification and Urbanization (E&U), High Economic Growth (HEG) and three policy-driven, Improved Energy Efficiency (IEE-1, IEE-2 and IEE-3) scenarios. The pathways represented by these scenarios can show the maximum expected rise in demand under different drivers and the best-case energy saving opportunities. The model is also used to estimate the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

Pattern of surgical admissions to Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A five-year retrospective study

Background: Tikur Anbessa specialized hospital (TASH) is Ethiopia’s largest tertiary teaching and referral hospital admitting and treating surgical patients under various specialties. This study aims to analyze the magnitude and pattern of surgical admissions to this facility. Methods: A five-year Cross sectional retrospective analysis was done on all adult surgical admissions to TASH from Sept. 2010 to Sept. 2015. Results: There were a total of 8,698 surgical admissions of which, 4471 (51.4%) were male and 4227 (48.5%) were female with male to female ratio of 1.06:1. Their age ranged from 13 to 95, with mean age being 38.8 ± 16.2 years. Three thousand two hundred twenty two (46.5%) patients were from Addis Ababa. Of all admissions, 4706 (54.1%) were elective ones of which obstructive uropathy, 997(21.1%), esophageal diseases, 716(15.2%) and Urolithiasis, 573(12.2%) respectively are the top three. The rest, 3992 (44.9%), were emergency admissions, the top three ones being trauma, 1435(35.9%), appendicitis 281(7%) and Intestinal obstruction, 190(4.7%) respectively. General surgical (gastrointestinal, endocrine and vascular) cases account for 3414 (39.25%) of all admissions followed by urosurgical cases, 2114 (25.31%), cardiothoracic surgical cases, 1942 (22.33%), and neurosurgical cases, 1139 (13.1%). There were a total of 280 deaths with an overall mortality rate of 4% of which, 3.2% were from elective admissions and 5.2% from emergency ones. Mortality rate was the highest among neurosurgical patients being 6.3% followed by 4.3%, 3.8% and 3.5% in cardiothoracic, general surgical and urosurgical cases respectively. Conclusions: The admission pattern indicates quite a big number and diversity of cases though the bed capacity is limited. There are significant number of cases that could be treated at other secondary level hospitals. Trauma is the leading cause of emergency admissions and significant cause of mortality. We recommend increasing the number of beds, organizing separate trauma center and admitting only cases requiring tertiary level care. Keywords: pattern of surgical diseases; surgical admissions; Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital

Correction to: Ten years malaria trend at Arjo-Didessa sugar development site and its vicinity, Southwest Ethiopia: a retrospective study.

Following publication of the original article [1], it came to the authors' attention that unfortunately the last name of one of the authors is spelled incorrectly in the published article

Live animal and meat export value chains for selected areas in Ethiopia: Constraints and opportunities for enhancing meat exports

The Ethiopian live animal and meat export marketing system is operating in an environment characterized by several constraints that needs the attention and action of the government and other non-governmental development organizations. Despite the reported high livestock population of the country, the major meat and live animal exporters are complaining of shortage of supply and inferior quality of animals (especially shoats). The problem could be because of the constraints in the marketing system of exporters themselves, the market information system, poor market infrastructures like road, seasonality in production, competition of the domestic and the export sector, problems in the production system, or a combination of several factors. Thus, it is imperative to identify the major factors contributing for the reported supply shortage that has hindered smooth functioning of the Ethiopian live animal and meat export market and take appropriate action as much as possible. This study, therefore, characterizes live animal and meat export value chains to determine constraints and opportunities for enhancing the efficiency of meat export from Ethiopia. The study was conducted using a Rapid Market Appraisal (RMA), which is a method that offers a quick and effective means for learning about the main characteristics of the marketing system, mapping the supply chains, understanding constraints and opportunities, and generating information as a basis for designing follow-up research such as focused survey of value chain components and actors

COVID-19 and acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and ventricular thrombus in a young ethiopian man without known cardiac risk factors: A case report

Patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can present with pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome but rarely with acute myocardial infarction, especially in the absence of known cardiovascular disease risk factors. We present the case of a previously healthy young Ethiopian man with COVID-19 and no known cardiovascular risk factors who was diagnosed with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction and left ventricular thrombu

Predicting mathematics performance from anxiety, enjoyment, value, and self-efficacy beliefs towards mathematics among engineering majors

The purpose of this study was to examine first year students’ mathematics anxiety, enjoyment of mathematics, value of mathematics, self-efficacy beliefs and prior performance as predictors of performance on a first year university mathematics course (Applied mathematics I). Data were collected from 225 first year undergraduate students at Bahir Dar University at the beginning and at the end of the course. A rating scale measuring anxiety (11 items), enjoyment of mathematics (14 items), value of mathematics (14 items), mathematics problem solving self-efficacy (9 items) and mathematics tasks self-efficacy (9 items) was used to collect data. The items were adapted from the literature. The participants’ prior performance was assessed by preparing a test from contents of high school mathematics and their performance on the Applied Mathematics course was measured by preparing a test consisting of representative items from the chapters of the course. One-sample t-tests and multiple regression analyses were used to analyze the data. Results revealed that the participants had lower mathematics anxiety, higher level of mathematics enjoyment and value of mathematics. But self-efficacy beliefs were found to be below expected levels. Results from the regression analyses depicted that mathematics enjoyment and mathematics tasks self-efficacy were found to be significant predictors of mathematics problem solving selfefficacy. On the other hand, prior achievement (performance on pre-university mathematics) and self-efficacy beliefs were found to be significant predictors of performance on the university mathematics course. The results imply the need for enhancing students’ self-efficacy beliefs so as to promote their mathematics performance

Going to scale—From community-based to population-wide genetic improvement and commercialized sheep meat supply in Ethiopia

Community-based breeding programs (CBBPs) have shown, at pilot scale, to be effective and beneficial in achieving genetic progress and in improving livelihoods of smallholder communities. In Ethiopia 134 sheep and goat CBBPs were operational producing their own improved rams and bucks. Based on experience the implementation of further programs is possible with appropriate private and public support. A different challenge is the efficient dissemination of the improved genetics produced in current CBBPs to create population-wide economic impact. We present a framework applied to the Ethiopian Washera sheep breed to meet this challenge. We propose the establishment of a genetic improvement structure that supports a meat commercialization model based on the integration of community-based breeding program cooperatives, client communities and complementary services such as fattening enterprises. We calculated that the recently established 28 community-based breeding programs in the Washera breeding tract can provide genetically improved rams to 22% of the four million head. To reach the whole population 152 additional CBBPs are needed. We simulated the genetic improvements obtainable in the current 28 CBBPs assuming realized genetic progress in CBBPs of a similar breed and calculated the expected additional lamb carcass meat production after 10 years of selection to be 7 tons and the accumulated discounted benefit 327 thousand USD. These benefits could be increased if the CBBPs are linked to client communities by providing them with improved rams: additional meat production would be 138 tons with a value of 3,088 thousand USD. The total meat production of the existingWashera CBBPs was calculated at 152 tons and the joint meat production of CBBPs if integrated with client communities would be 3,495 tons. A full integration model, which includes enterprises purchasing lambs for fattening, can produce up to 4,255 tons of meat. We conclude that Washera CBBPs cooperatives can benefit from a higher level of organization to produce population-wide genetic improvement and economic benefits. Unlike in the dairy and chicken industries, for low input sheep and goat smallholder systems the proposed commercialization model puts breeder cooperatives at the center of the operation. Cooperatives need to be capacitated and supported to become fully functional business ventures.Estación Experimental Agropecuaria BarilocheFil: Mueller, Joaquin Pablo. Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). Estacion Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Haile, Aynalem. International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA); EtiopiaFil: Getachew, Tesfaye. International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA); EtiopiaFil: Santos, Bruno. AbacusBio Limited; Nueva ZelandaFil: Rekik, Mourad. International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA); TunezFil: Belay, Berhanu. International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA); EtiopiaFil: Solomon, Dawit. International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI); EtiopiaFil: Yeheyis, Likawent. Amhara Regional Research Institute (ARARI); EtiopiaFil: Rischkowsky, Barbara. International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA); Etiopi

Community-based small ruminant breeding programs with livelihood benefits are becoming the nucleus for climate-resilient scaling in Ethiopia: Results from an ongoing community-based breeding program in Doyogena, Ethiopia

In developed countries, national breeding programs have been implemented by well-organized breeder associations with full support from the state in a developed infrastructure and high-level capacity to run the breeding programs. Such breeding programs are successful in data recording and processing, and the evaluation of the best candidates for optimal breeding. However, adopting such breeding programs in developing countries was not successful due to a lack of support from government and poor infrastructure