Bootstrap-after-Bootstrap Model Averaging for Reducing Model Uncertainty in Model Selection for Air Pollution Mortality Studies

Ba c k g r o u n d: Concerns have been raised about findings of associations between particulate matter (PM) air pollution and mortality that have been based on a single “best ” model arising from a model selection procedure, because such a strategy may ignore model uncertainty inherently involved in searching through a set of candidate models to find the best model. Model averaging has been proposed as a method of allowing for model uncertainty in this context. Objectives: To propose an extension (double BOOT) to a previously described bootstrap modelaveraging procedure (BOOT) for use in time series studies of the association between PM and mortality. We compared double BOOT and BOOT with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and a standard method of model selection [standard Akaike’s information criterion (AIC)]. Me t h o d: Actual time series data from the United States are used to conduct a simulation study to compare and contrast the performance of double BOOT, BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. Re s u l t s: Double BOOT produced estimates of the effect of PM on mortality that have had smaller root mean squared error than did those produced by BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. This performance boost resulted from estimates produced by double BOOT having smaller variance than those produced by BOOTand BMA. Co n c l u s i o n s: Double BOOT is a viable alternative to BOOT and BMA for producing estimates of the mortality effect of PM. Key w o r d s: air pollution, Bayesian, bootstrap, model averaging, mortality, particulate matter. Environ Health Perspect 118:131–136 (2010). doi:10.1289/ehp.0901007 available vi

Novel phytoandrogens and lipidic augmenters from Eucommia ulmoides

BACKGROUND: Plants containing compounds such as the isoflavonoids, with female hormone-like effects that bind to human estrogen receptors, are known. But none has been previously shown to have corresponding male hormone-like effects that interact with the human androgen receptor. Here, we report that the tree bark (cortex) of the Gutta-Percha tree Eucommia ulmoides possesses bimodal phytoandrogenic and hormone potentiating effects by lipidic components. METHODS: The extracts of E. ulmoides were tested using in-vitro reporter gene bioassays and in-vivo animal studies. Key compounds responsible for the steroidogenic effects were isolated and identified using solid phase extraction (SPE), high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), thin layer chromatography (TLC), gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC-MS), electron spray ionisation-mass spectroscopy (ESI-MS) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). RESULTS: The following bioactivities of E. ulmoides were found: (1) a phenomenal tripartite synergism exists between the sex steroid receptors (androgen and estrogen receptors), their cognate steroidal ligands and lipidic augmenters isolated from E. ulmoides, (2) phytoandrogenic activity of E. ulmoides was mediated by plant triterpenoids binding cognately to the androgen receptor (AR) ligand binding domain. CONCLUSION: In addition to well-known phytoestrogens, the existence of phytoandrogens is reported in this study. Furthermore, a form of tripartite synergism between sex steroid receptors, sex hormones and plant-derived lipids is described for the first time. This could have contrasting clinical applications for hypogonadal- and hyperlipidaemic-related disorders

Multidimensional sexual perfectionism and female sexual function: A longitudinal investigation

Research on multidimensional sexual perfectionism differentiates four forms of sexual perfectionism: self-oriented, partner-oriented, partner-prescribed, and socially prescribed. Self-oriented sexual perfectionism reflects perfectionistic standards people apply to themselves as sexual partners; partner-oriented sexual perfectionism reflects perfectionistic standards people apply to their sexual partner; partner-prescribed sexual perfectionism reflects people’s beliefs that their sexual partner imposes perfectionistic standards on them; and socially prescribed sexual perfectionism reflects people’s beliefs that society imposes such standards on them. Previous studies found partner-prescribed and socially prescribed sexual perfectionism to be maladaptive forms of sexual perfectionism associated with a negative sexual self-concept and problematic sexual behaviors, but only examined cross-sectional relationships. The present article presents the first longitudinal study examining whether multidimensional sexual perfectionism predicts changes in sexual self-concept and sexual function over time. A total of 366 women aged 17-69 years completed measures of multidimensional sexual perfectionism, sexual esteem, sexual anxiety, sexual problem self-blame, and female sexual function (cross-sectional data). Three to six months later, 164 of the women completed the same measures again (longitudinal data). Across analyses, partner-prescribed sexual perfectionism emerged as the most maladaptive form of sexual perfectionism. In the cross-sectional data, partner-prescribed sexual perfectionism showed positive relationships with sexual anxiety, sexual problem self-blame, and intercourse pain and negative relationships with sexual esteem, desire, arousal, lubrication, and orgasmic function. In the longitudinal data, partner-prescribed sexual perfectionism predicted increases in sexual anxiety and decreases in sexual esteem, arousal, and lubrication over time. The findings suggest that partner-prescribed sexual perfectionism contributes to women’s negative sexual self-concept and female sexual dysfunction

ERP evidence suggests executive dysfunction in ecstasy polydrug users

Background: Deficits in executive functions such as access to semantic/long-term memory have been shown in ecstasy users in previous research. Equally, there have been many reports of equivocal findings in this area. The current study sought to further investigate behavioural and electro-physiological measures of this executive function in ecstasy users. Method: Twenty ecstasy–polydrug users, 20 non-ecstasy–polydrug users and 20 drug-naïve controls were recruited. Participants completed background questionnaires about their drug use, sleep quality, fluid intelligence and mood state. Each individual also completed a semantic retrieval task whilst 64 channel Electroencephalography (EEG) measures were recorded. Results: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) revealed no between-group differences in behavioural performance on the task. Mixed ANOVA on event-related potential (ERP) components P2, N2 and P3 revealed significant between-group differences in the N2 component. Subsequent exploratory univariate ANOVAs on the N2 component revealed marginally significant between-group differences, generally showing greater negativity at occipito-parietal electrodes in ecstasy users compared to drug-naïve controls. Despite absence of behavioural differences, differences in N2 magnitude are evidence of abnormal executive functioning in ecstasy–polydrug users

Diabetes mellitus in dogs attending UK primary-care practices: frequency, risk factors and survival

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is an important endocrine disorder of dogs. The objectives of this study were to estimate prevalence and incidence of DM in dogs, and to explore risk factors for DM and the survival of DM cases in primary-care clinics in the UK. Results: A case-control study nested in the cohort of dogs (n = 480,469) aged ≥3 years presenting at 430 VetCompass clinics was used to identify risk factors for DM, using multivariable logistic regression. Overall 409 new and 863 pre-existing DM cases (total 1272) were identified in 2016, giving an apparent annual prevalence of 0.26% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.25–0.28%), and an annual incidence risk of 0.09% (95%CI: 0.08–0.09%) in dogs aged ≥3 years. Factors associated with increased odds for DM diagnosis were all age categories > 8 years, female entire dogs (odds ratio (OR): 3.03, 95% CI 1.69–5.44, p < 0.001) and male neutered dogs (OR: 1.99, 95% CI 1.18–3.34, p = 0.010) compared to male entire dogs, Border Terriers (OR: 3.37, 95% CI 1.04–10.98, p = 0.043) and West Highland White Terriers (WHWT) (OR: 2.88, 95% CI 1.49–5.56, p = 0.002) compared to crossbreeds. Dogs that had received previous glucocorticoid treatment (OR: 2.19, 95% CI 1.02–4.70, p = 0.044) and those with concurrent conditions (documented obese, pancreatitis, hyperadrenocorticism) also had increased odds for DM diagnosis. Cox regression modelling was used to evaluate factors associated with survival in the 409 incident DM cases in 2016. Increased hazard of death following diagnosis of DM was shown in dogs that were ≥ 10 years age, Cocker Spaniels (HR: 2.06, 95% CI 1.06–4.01, p = 0.034) compared to crossbreeds, had a blood glucose (BG) level at diagnosis > 40 mmol/L (HR: 2.73, 95% CI 1.35–5.55, p = 0.005) compared to < 20 mmol/L at diagnosis, or had received previous glucocorticoid treatment (HR: 1.86, 95% CI 1.21–2.86, p = 0.005). Dogs at reduced hazard of death included neutered dogs (HR: 0.58, 95% CI 0.42–0.79, p = 0.001), Border Collies (HR: 0.39, 95% CI 0.17–0.87, p = 0.022) and those starting insulin treatment (HR: 0.08 95% CI 0.05–0.12, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Certain breeds and concurrent health conditions are associated with an increased risk of DM. In addition to certain signalment factors, a high BG level at diagnosis and prior glucocorticoid treatment were adversely associated with survival of dogs with DM. Keywords: Diabetes mellitus, Risk factors, Survival, Case-control study, Benchmarking, VetCompas

Confounding and exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology

Studies in air pollution epidemiology may suffer from some specific forms of confounding and exposure measurement error. This contribution discusses these, mostly in the framework of cohort studies. Evaluation of potential confounding is critical in studies of the health effects of air pollution. The association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality has been investigated using cohort studies in which subjects are followed over time with respect to their vital status. In such studies, control for individual-level confounders such as smoking is important, as is control for area-level confounders such as neighborhood socio-economic status. In addition, there may be spatial dependencies in the survival data that need to be addressed. These issues are illustrated using the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention II cohort. Exposure measurement error is a challenge in epidemiology because inference about health effects can be incorrect when the measured or predicted exposure used in the analysis is different from the underlying true exposure. Air pollution epidemiology rarely if ever uses personal measurements of exposure for reasons of cost and feasibility. Exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology comes in various dominant forms, which are different for time-series and cohort studies. The challenges are reviewed and a number of suggested solutions are discussed for both study domains

Environmental barriers to sociality in an obligate eusocial sweat bee

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.All data generated or analysed during this study are included in this published article and its supplementary materials.Understanding the ecological and environmental contexts in which eusociality can evolve is fundamental to elucidating its evolutionary origins. A sufficiently long active season is postulated to have been a key factor facilitating the transition to eusociality. Many primitively eusocial species exhibit an annual life cycle, which is thought to preclude the expression of eusociality where the active season is too short to produce successive worker and reproductive broods. However, few studies have attempted to test this idea experimentally. We investigated environmental constraints on the expression of eusociality in the obligate primitively eusocial sweat bee Lasioglossum malachurum, by transplanting nest foundresses from the south to the far north of the United Kingdom, far beyond the natural range of L. malachurum. We show that transplanted bees can exhibit eusociality, but that the short length of the season and harsher environmental conditions could preclude its successful expression. In one year, when foundresses were transplanted only after provisioning first brood (B1) offspring, workers emerged in the north and provisioned a second brood (B2) of reproductives. In another year, when foundresses were transplanted prior to B1 being provisioned, they were just as likely to initiate nesting and provisioned just as many B1 cells as foundresses in the south. However, the life cycle was delayed by approximately 7 weeks and nests suffered 100% B1 mortality. Our results suggest that short season length together with poor weather conditions represent an environmental barrier to the evolution and expression of eusociality in sweat bees.This work formed part of a studentship (1119965) awarded to PJD funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and the University of Sussex, supervised by JF