Predicting space climate change

The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest‐fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long‐term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near‐Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300‐year record

A blinded determination of H0H_0 from low-redshift Type Ia supernovae, calibrated by Cepheid variables

Presently a ${>}3\sigma$ tension exists between values of the Hubble constant $H_0$ derived from analysis of fluctuations in the Cosmic Microwave Background by Planck, and local measurements of the expansion using calibrators of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). We perform a blinded reanalysis of Riess et al. 2011 to measure $H_0$ from low-redshift SNe Ia, calibrated by Cepheid variables and geometric distances including to NGC 4258. This paper is a demonstration of techniques to be applied to the Riess et at. 2016 data. Our end-to-end analysis starts from available CfA3 and LOSS photometry, providing an independent validation of Riess et al. 2011. We obscure the value of $H_0$ throughout our analysis and the first stage of the referee process, because calibration of SNe Ia requires a series of often subtle choices, and the potential for results to be affected by human bias is significant. Our analysis departs from that of Riess et al. 2011 by incorporating the covariance matrix method adopted in SNLS and JLA to quantify SN Ia systematics, and by including a simultaneous fit of all SN Ia and Cepheid data. We find $H_0 = 72.5 \pm 3.1$ (stat) $\pm 0.77$ (sys) km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ with a three-galaxy (NGC 4258+LMC+MW) anchor. The relative uncertainties are 4.3% statistical, 1.1% systematic, and 4.4% total, larger than in Riess et al. 2011 (3.3% total) and the Efstathiou 2014 reanalysis (3.4% total). Our error budget for $H_0$ is dominated by statistical errors due to the small size of the supernova sample, whilst the systematic contribution is dominated by variation in the Cepheid fits, and for the SNe Ia, uncertainties in the host galaxy mass dependence and Malmquist bias.Comment: 38 pages, 13 figures, 13 tables; accepted for publication in MNRA

Holistic facial composite creation and subsequent video line-up eyewitness identification paradigm

The paradigm detailed in this manuscript describes an applied experimental method based on real police investigations during which an eyewitness or victim to a crime may create from memory a holistic facial composite of the culprit with the assistance of a police operator. The aim is that the composite is recognized by someone who believes that they know the culprit. For this paradigm, participants view a culprit actor on video and following a delay, participant-witnesses construct a holistic system facial composite. Controls do not construct a composite. From a series of arrays of computer-generated, but realistic faces, the holistic system construction method primarily requires participant-witnesses to select the facial images most closely meeting their memory of the culprit. Variation between faces in successive arrays is reduced until ideally the final image possesses a close likeness to the culprit. Participant-witness directed tools can also alter facial features, configurations between features and holistic properties (e.g., age, distinctiveness, skin tone), all within a whole face context. The procedure is designed to closely match the holistic manner by which humans’ process faces. On completion, based on their memory of the culprit, ratings of composite-culprit similarity are collected from the participant-witnesses. Similar ratings are collected from culprit-acquaintance assessors, as a marker of composite recognition likelihood. Following a further delay, all participants — including the controls — attempt to identify the culprit in either a culprit-present or culprit-absent video line-up, to replicate circumstances in which the police have located the correct culprit, or an innocent suspect. Data of control and participant-witness line-up outcomes are presented, demonstrating the positive influence of holistic composite construction on identification accuracy. Correlational analyses are conducted to measure the relationship between assessor and participant-witness composite-culprit similarity ratings, delay, identification accuracy, and confidence to examine which factors influence video line-up outcomes

Validation methodologies for turbulent variable density flows: A jet case study

Comparisons studies between simulated variable density turbulent flows often consist of direct graphical representations where the level of agreement is determined by eye. This work demonstrates a formal validation methodology using an existing validation framework to examine the agreement between a simulated variable density jet flow and corresponding experimental data. Implicit large eddy simulations (ILES's) of a round jet and a plane jet with density ratio $s = 4.2$ were simulated using the compressible hydrodynamic code xRAGE. The jet growth, characterized by the spreading rates, was compared, and the difference between the simulations and the experiment was examined through jet structure diagnostics. The spreading rates were found to be larger than the experimental values, primarily due to resolution issues in the simulations, a fact that is quantified by the validation metric analysis.Comment: 19 pages, 13 figure

Space Warps II. New Gravitational Lens Candidates from the CFHTLS Discovered through Citizen Science

We report the discovery of 29 promising (and 59 total) new lens candidates from the CFHT Legacy Survey (CFHTLS) based on about 11 million classifications performed by citizen scientists as part of the first Space Warps lens search. The goal of the blind lens search was to identify lens candidates missed by robots (the RingFinder on galaxy scales and ArcFinder on group/cluster scales) which had been previously used to mine the CFHTLS for lenses. We compare some properties of the samples detected by these algorithms to the Space Warps sample and find them to be broadly similar. The image separation distribution calculated from the Space Warps sample shows that previous constraints on the average density profile of lens galaxies are robust. SpaceWarps recovers about 65% of known lenses, while the new candidates show a richer variety compared to those found by the two robots. This detection rate could be increased to 80% by only using classifications performed by expert volunteers (albeit at the cost of a lower purity), indicating that the training and performance calibration of the citizen scientists is very important for the success of Space Warps. In this work we present the SIMCT pipeline, used for generating in situ a sample of realistic simulated lensed images. This training sample, along with the false positives identified during the search, has a legacy value for testing future lens finding algorithms. We make the pipeline and the training set publicly available.Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures, MNRAS accepted, minor to moderate changes in this versio

The characteristics of the magnetopause reconnection X-line deduced from low-altitude satellite observations of cusp ions

We present an analysis of a “quasi-steady” cusp ion dispersion signature observed at low altitudes. We reconstruct the field-parallel part of the Cowley-D ion distribution function, injected into the open LLBL in the vicinity of the reconnection X-line. From this we find the field-parallel magnetosheath flow at the X-line was only 20 ± 60 km s−1, placing the reconnection site close to the flow streamline which is perpendicular to the magnetosheath field. Using interplanetary data and assuming the subsolar magnetopause is in pressure balance, we derive a wealth of information about the X-line, including: the density, flow, magnetic field and Alfvén speed of the magnetosheath; the magnetic shear across the X-line; the de-Hoffman Teller speed with which field lines emerge from the X-line; the magnetospheric field; and the ion transmission factor across the magnetopause. The results indicate that some heating takes place near the X-line as the ions cross the magnetopause, and that sheath densities may be reduced in a plasma depletion layer. We also compute the reconnection rate. Despite its quasi-steady appearance on an ion spectrogram, this cusp is found to reveal a large pulse of enhanced reconnection rate

Human saliva as a source of anti-malarial antibodies to examine population exposure to Plasmodium falciparum

BACKGROUND: Antibody responses to malaria antigens reflect exposure to parasites, and seroprevalence correlates with malaria transmission intensity. Antibodies are routinely measured in sera or on dried blood spots but a non-invasive method would provide extra utility in sampling general populations. Saliva is already in use in the detection of plasma-derived IgM and IgG to viral infections. In this study, antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens were compared between blood and saliva samples from the same individuals in unlinked surveys conducted in Tanzania and The Gambia. METHODS: In Tanzania, 53 individuals provided paired fingerprick blood and saliva sample using two commercially available sampling devices. In the Gambia, archived plasma and saliva samples collected from 200 children in the Farafenni area in a cross-sectional survey were analyzed.IgG antibodies against P. falciparum antigens, Merozoite Surface Protein-1 (MSP-119) and Apical membrane Antigen (AMA-1) were measured by ELISA in paired saliva and blood samples from both sites. Antibody levels were compared as continuous optical density (OD) values and by sero-positivity. RESULTS: Significant correlations between saliva and plasma antibody levels were seen in Tanzania for both antigens, AMA-1(r2 range 0.93 to 0.89, p < 0.001) and MSP-119 (r2 range 0.93 to 0.75, p < 0.001), with a weaker correlation for results from The Gambia (r2range 0.64 to 0.63, p < 0.01). When assessed as seropositivity and compared with plasma, sensitivity and specificity were good with saliva antibody levels to both AMA-1 and MSP-1(19) (sensitivity range 64-77% and specificity range 91-100% & 47-67% and 90-97% respectively) over the different sample sets. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate anti-malarial antibodies can be detected in saliva and correlate strongly with levels in plasma. This non-invasive relatively simple collection method will be potentially useful for general population surveys, and particularly in migratory populations or those with infrequent contact with health services or opposed to blood withdrawal. Further studies will be needed to optimize collection methods, standardize volumes and content and develop controls

A putative serine protease, SpSsp1, from Saprolegnia parasitica is recognised by sera of rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss

Acknowledgements Our work was supported by the BBSRC (BB/C518457/1, BB/G012075/1, BB/J018333/1) (K.L.M., C.J.S., J.S.C., K.S.D., and P.v.W.), the University of Aberdeen (V.L.A., C.J.S., and P.v.W.), MSD Animal Health (J.S.C., K.S.D., and A.H.v.d.B), and The Royal Society (P.v.W.). This work was also supported by a Marie Curie Initial Training Networks with the SAPRO (sustainable approaches to reduce Oomycete (Saprolegnia) infections in aquacultures) grant PITN-GA-2009-238550 (A.H.v.d.B., L.L., C.J.S., P.v.W.). We would like to acknowledge Aberdeen Proteomics for carrying out LC–MS/MS and Laura Grenville-Briggs for valuable discussion and technical help. We are grateful to the Broad Institute (Carsten Russ, Rays Jiang, Brian Haas, and Chad Nusbaum), Brett Tyler (VBI), and P.v.W. for early release of draft supercontigs of the genome sequence of isolate CBS233.65, which helped us identify SpSsp1.Peer reviewedPublisher PD