Monte Carlo Uncertainty Quantification Using Quasi-1D SRM Ballistic Model

Compactness, reliability, readiness, and construction simplicity of solid rocket motors make them very appealing for commercial launcher missions and embarked systems. Solid propulsion grants high thrust-to-weight ratio, high volumetric specific impulse, and a Technology Readiness Level of 9. However, solid rocket systems are missing any throttling capability at run-time, since pressure-time evolution is defined at the design phase. This lack of mission flexibility makes their missions sensitive to deviations of performance from nominal behavior. For this reason, the reliability of predictions and reproducibility of performances represent a primary goal in this field. This paper presents an analysis of SRM performance uncertainties throughout the implementation of a quasi-1D numerical model of motor internal ballistics based on Shapiro's equations. The code is coupled with a Monte Carlo algorithm to evaluate statistics and propagation of some peculiar uncertainties from design data to rocker performance parameters. The model has been set for the reproduction of a small-scale rocket motor, discussing a set of parametric investigations on uncertainty propagation across the ballistic model

Energy Production Analysis and Optimization of Mini-Grid in Remote Areas: The Case Study of Habaswein, Kenya

Rural electrification in remote areas of developing countries has several challenges which hinder energy access to the population. For instance, the extension of the national grid to provide electricity in these areas is largely not viable. The Kenyan Government has put a target to achieve universal energy access by the year 2020. To realize this objective, the focus of the program is being shifted to establishing off-grid power stations in rural areas. Among rural areas to be electrified is Habaswein, which is a settlement in Kenya’s northeastern region without connection to the national power grid, and where Kenya Power installed a stand-alone hybrid mini-grid. Based on field observations, power generation data analysis, evaluation of the potential energy resources and simulations, this research intends to evaluate the performance of the Habaswein mini-grid and optimize the existing hybrid generation system to enhance its reliability and reduce the operation costs. The result will be a suggestion of how Kenyan rural areas could be sustainably electrified by using renewable energy based off-grid power stations. It will contribute to bridge the current research gap in this area, and it will be a vital tool to researchers, implementers and the policy makers in energy sector

Quantitative serological evaluation as a valuable tool in the COVID-19 vaccination campaign

Objectives: After exceptional research efforts, several vaccines were developed against SARS-CoV-2 which sustains the pandemic COVID-19. The Comirnaty vaccine showed high efficacy in clinical trials and was the first to be approved for its distribution to the general population. We evaluated the immune response induced by the first vaccine dose in different sex/age groups and subjects with or without naturally present anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Methods: As part of an Italian multicenter project (Covidiagnostix), serum samples from 4,290 health-professionals were serologically tested the day of the first vaccination dose, and 21 days later, using two different instrumentations (Siemens-Healthineers and Roche). Results: In total, 97% of samples showed the presence of specific antibodies 21 days after the vaccination dose; the percentage of non-responders increased with age in both genders. Remarkably, naturally seropositive individuals showed antibody persistence up to 11 months and an exceptionally higher vaccination response compared to subjects never infected by SARS-CoV-2. Conclusions: This study highlighted the importance of the serological test i) to identify naturally SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals and ii) to evaluate the antibody level elicited by the first vaccination dose. Both tests, highlighted differences in the immune response, when subjects were stratified by sex and age, and between naturally seropositive and seronegative subjects.The data obtained show how serological tests could play a crucial role in the triage of the population subjected to the vaccination campaign for COVID-19. The definition of suitable instrumentation-specific thresholds is needed to correctly follow eventually acquired post-vaccination immunity in the general population

DO JURORS HOLD AUDITORS TO A DIFFERENT NEGLIGENCE STANDARD UNDER U.S. GAAP AND IFRS?

In order to fulfill the requirements of East Carolina University’s Honors College, I created the research study described in this paper to examine the effects on auditor liability under United States Generally Accepted Accounting Principles compared to the International Financial Reporting Standards. The Financial Accounting Standards Board and the International Accounting Standards Board have been working towards convergence between U.S. GAAP, a rules-based system, and IFRS, a principles-based system. This research study examines whether potential jurors would hold auditors to a different negligence standard between rules-based and principles-based accounting. This study also explores how juror assessments of auditor responsibility differ when auditor liability is limited, as opposed to, unlimited. An experiment was conducted with students at a large state university representing jurors. I found evidence that auditor liability was held to a higher dollar value under unlimited liability and when relevant accounting standards were rules-based

Comparison of two strategies for the management of postoperative recurrence in Crohn's disease patients with one clinical risk factor: A multicentre IG-IBD study

BackgroundThe management of postoperative recurrence (POR) in Crohn's disease (CD) after ileo-colonic resection is a highly debated topic. Prophylactic immunosuppression after surgery is currently recommended in the presence of at least one clinical risk factor. ObjectiveOur aim was to determine whether early immunosuppression can be avoided and guided by endoscopy in CD patients with only one risk factor. MethodsCD patients with only one risk factor for POR, including previous intestinal resection, extensive small intestine resection (>50 cm), fistulising phenotype, history of perianal disease, and active smoking, were retrospectively included. Two groups were formed based on whether immunosuppression was started immediately after surgery ("prophylaxis group") or guided by endoscopy ("endoscopy-driven group"). Primary endpoints were rates of any endoscopic recurrence (Rutgeerts >= i2a) and severe endoscopic recurrence (i4) within 12 months after surgery. Secondary outcomes were clinical recurrence rates at 6, 12 and 24 months after surgery. ResultsA total of 195 patients were enroled, of whom 61 (31.3%) received immunoprophylaxis. No differences between immunoprophylaxis and the endoscopy-driven approach were found regarding any endoscopic recurrence (36.1% vs. 45.5%, respectively, p = 0.10) and severe endoscopic recurrence (9.8% vs. 15.7%, respectively, p = 0.15) at the first endoscopic evaluation. Clinical recurrence rates were also not statistically different (p = 0.43, p = 0.09, and p = 0.63 at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively). ConclusionsIn operated CD patients with only one risk factor for POR, immediate immunoprophylaxis does not decrease the rate of early clinical and endoscopic recurrence. Prospective studies are needed to confirm our results

Real World Estimate of Vaccination Protection in Individuals Hospitalized for COVID-19

Whether vaccination confers a protective effect against progression after hospital admission for COVID-19 remains to be elucidated. Observational study including all the patients admitted to San Paolo Hospital in Milan for COVID-19 in 2021. Previous vaccination was categorized as: none, one dose, full vaccination (two or three doses >14 days before symptoms onset). Data were collected at hospital admission, including demographic and clinical variables, age-unadjusted Charlson Comorbidity index (CCI). The highest intensity of ventilation during hospitalization was registered. The endpoints were in-hospital death (primary) and mechanical ventilation/death (secondary). Survival analysis was conducted by means of Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models. Effect measure modification by age was formally tested. We included 956 patients: 151 (16%) fully vaccinated (18 also third dose), 62 (7%) one dose vaccinated, 743 (78%) unvaccinated. People fully vaccinated were older and suffering from more comorbidities than unvaccinated. By 28 days, the risk of death was of 35.9% (95%CI: 30.1–41.7) in unvaccinated, 41.5% (24.5–58.5) in one dose and 28.4% (18.2–38.5) in fully vaccinated (p = 0.63). After controlling for age, ethnicity, CCI and month of admission, fully vaccinated participants showed a risk reduction of 50% for both in-hospital death, AHR 0.50 (95%CI: 0.30–0.84) and for mechanical ventilation or death, AHR 0.49 (95%CI: 0.35–0.69) compared to unvaccinated, regardless of age (interaction p > 0.56). Fully vaccinated individuals in whom vaccine failed to keep them out of hospital, appeared to be protected against critical disease or death when compared to non-vaccinated. These data support universal COVID-19 vaccination

How future surgery will benefit from SARS-COV-2-related measures: a SPIGC survey conveying the perspective of Italian surgeons

COVID-19 negatively affected surgical activity, but the potential benefits resulting from adopted measures remain unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the change in surgical activity and potential benefit from COVID-19 measures in perspective of Italian surgeons on behalf of SPIGC. A nationwide online survey on surgical practice before, during, and after COVID-19 pandemic was conducted in March-April 2022 (NCT:05323851). Effects of COVID-19 hospital-related measures on surgical patients' management and personal professional development across surgical specialties were explored. Data on demographics, pre-operative/peri-operative/post-operative management, and professional development were collected. Outcomes were matched with the corresponding volume. Four hundred and seventy-three respondents were included in final analysis across 14 surgical specialties. Since SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, application of telematic consultations (4.1% vs. 21.6%; p < 0.0001) and diagnostic evaluations (16.4% vs. 42.2%; p < 0.0001) increased. Elective surgical activities significantly reduced and surgeons opted more frequently for conservative management with a possible indication for elective (26.3% vs. 35.7%; p < 0.0001) or urgent (20.4% vs. 38.5%; p < 0.0001) surgery. All new COVID-related measures are perceived to be maintained in the future. Surgeons' personal education online increased from 12.6% (pre-COVID) to 86.6% (post-COVID; p < 0.0001). Online educational activities are considered a beneficial effect from COVID pandemic (56.4%). COVID-19 had a great impact on surgical specialties, with significant reduction of operation volume. However, some forced changes turned out to be benefits. Isolation measures pushed the use of telemedicine and telemetric devices for outpatient practice and favored communication for educational purposes and surgeon-patient/family communication. From the Italian surgeons' perspective, COVID-related measures will continue to influence future surgical clinical practice

Standardization of the energy performance of photovoltaic modules in real operating conditions

The performance of a PV module at STC [1] is a useful indicator for comparing the peak performance of different module types, but on its own is not sufficient to accurately predict how much energy a module will deliver in the field when subjected to a wide range of real operating conditions [2]. An Energy Rating approach has to be preferred for that aim. It is currently under development the standard series IEC 61853 on Energy Rating, for which only part 1 [3] has been issued. It describes methods to characterize the module performance as a function of irradiance and temperature. The reproducibility of the power matrix measurements obtained by the three different methods specified in the standard, namely: under natural sunlight using a tracking system; under natural sunlight without tracker; and a large area pulsed solar simulator of Class AAA were evaluated and discussed [4,5]. The work here presented is focused on the second method listed above, which explores the real working conditions for a PV device and therefore it represents the situation where Energy Rating procedures are expected to give the largest deviations from the STC predictions. The system for continuous monitoring of module performances, already implemented at ESTI, has been recently replaced with a new system having a number of improvements described in the following. The two system results have been compared showing a discrete compatibility. The two power matrices are then merged together using a weighted average and compared to those acquired with the other two remaining “ideal” systems. An interesting tendency seems to come up from this comparison, making the power rating under real operating conditions an essential procedure for energy rating purposes.JRC.F.7-Renewables and Energy Efficienc