The Effects of Climate Change on the Phenological Interactions of Plants and Pollinators

Symposium title: Interdisciplinary Canary: Linkages between Ecology and Sustainable Decision Making in a Dynamic Environment

*1) Background/Question/Methods*
The responses of pollinators to climate change could include changes in phenology of migratory pollinators and in the routes or destinations for their migration, changes in the phenology and distribution of non-migratory species, and changes in the host plants they visit for nectar and pollen. Plants face similar challenges with regard to changes in their distributions, their reproductive phenology, and interactions with both co-flowering species and pollinators (competition, facilitation, etc.). Unless pollinators and their host plants are responding similarly to changing environmental cues that affect their phenology, their historical patterns of interaction, both mutualistic and competitive, are likely to change. Long-term data are essential to investigating which if any of these potential outcomes are occurring. A 36-year record of abundance and phenology of flowering of 90+ wildflower species, surveys of the altitudinal distribution of bumble bees in the 1970s and the past few years, and data from a long-term Malaise trap sampling program, all near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (West Elk mountains, Colorado) are used for this investigation. 

*2) Results/Conclusions*
Although the flowering phenology of all species examined to date is affected by a single environmental event, disappearance of the winter snowpack (range 22 April -19 June since 1975), either their responses to that single cue are not uniform, or different species respond to additional cues in addition to snowmelt (e.g., growing degree days). Thus the community of co-flowering species varies temporally and quantitatively among years; differential sensitivity to frost damage is an example of an environmental variable that generates the quantitative variation among years, and is in turn affected by date of snowmelt. Arrival dates of migratory Broad-tailed Hummingbirds are significantly correlated with the amount of snow remaining on 30 April, and with the day of first flowering of Erythronium grandiflorum (glacier lily), the first flower that they visit at this site in the spring. Altitudinal distributions of at least some bumble bee species, and of the flowers they feed on, are also changing, with one bee species occurring about 600m higher than it did 30 years ago and one wildflower (Mertensia cilata) disappearing from lower altitudes where it was historically common. As these communities of plants and pollinators respond to environmental changes with changes in phenology and distribution, new interactions will be created and old ones will be lost

A Statistical Estimator for Determining the Limits of Contemporary and Historic Phenology

Climate change affects not just where species are found, but also when species’ key life-history events occur—their phenology. Measuring such changes in timing is often hampered by a reliance on biased survey data: surveys identify that an event has taken place (for example, the flower is in bloom), but not when that event happened (for example, the flower bloomed yesterday). Here, we show that this problem can be circumvented using statistical estimators, which can provide accurate and unbiased estimates from sparsely sampled observations. We demonstrate that such methods can resolve an ongoing debate about the relative timings of the onset and cessation of flowering, and allow us to place modern observations reliably within the context of the vast wealth of historical data that reside in herbaria, museum collections, and written records. We also analyse large-scale citizen science data from the United States National Phenology Network and reveal not just earlier but also potentially more variable flowering in recent years. Evidence for greater variability through time is important because increases in variation are characteristic of systems approaching a state change

Flowering Date of Taxonomic Families Predicts Phenological Sensitivity to Temperature: Implications for Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on Unstudied Taxa

Premise of the study: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in fi rst fl owering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affi nity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied; Methods: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before fl owering and whether families differ signifi cantly in the direction of their phenological shifts; Key results: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; earlyfl owering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-fl owering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here; Conclusions: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-fl owering families (and the absence of earlyfl owering families not sensitive to temperature) may refl ect plasticity in fl owering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years

Acute effects of active breaks during prolonged sitting on subcutaneous adipose tissue gene expression: an ancillary analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

Active breaks in prolonged sitting has beneficial impacts on cardiometabolic risk biomarkers. The molecular mechanisms include regulation of skeletal muscle gene and protein expression controlling metabolic, inflammatory and cell development pathways. An active communication network exists between adipose and muscle tissue, but the effect of active breaks in prolonged sitting on adipose tissue have not been investigated. This study characterized the acute transcriptional events induced in adipose tissue by regular active breaks during prolonged sitting. We studied 8 overweight/obese adults participating in an acute randomized three-intervention crossover trial. Interventions were performed in the postprandial state and included: (i) prolonged uninterrupted sitting; or prolonged sitting interrupted with 2-minute bouts of (ii) light- or (iii) moderate-intensity treadmill walking every 20 minutes. Subcutaneous adipose tissue biopsies were obtained after each condition. Microarrays identified 36 differentially expressed genes between the three conditions (fold change ≥0.5 in either direction; p < 0.05). Pathway analysis indicated that breaking up of prolonged sitting led to differential regulation of adipose tissue metabolic networks and inflammatory pathways, increased insulin signaling, modulation of adipocyte cell cycle, and facilitated cross-talk between adipose tissue and other organs. This study provides preliminary insight into the adipose tissue regulatory systems that may contribute to the physiological effects of interrupting prolonged sitting

Global trends in the number and diversity of managed pollinator species

Cultivation of pollinator-dependent crops has expanded globally, increasing our reliance on insect pollination. This essential ecosystem service is provided by a wide range of managed and wild pollinators whose abundance and diversity are thought to be in decline, threatening sustainable food production. The Western honey bee (Apis mellifera) is amongst the best-monitored insects but the state of other managed pollinators is less well known. Here, we review the status and trends of all managed pollinators based on publicly accessible databases and the published literature. We found that, on a global scale, the number of managed A. mellifera colonies has increased by 85% since 1961, driven mainly by Asia. This contrasts with high reported colony overwinter mortality, especially in North America (average 26% since 2007) and Europe (average 16% since 2007). Increasing agricultural dependency on pollinators as well as threats associated with managing non-native pollinators have likely spurred interest in the management of alternative species for pollination, including bumble bees, stingless bees, solitary bees, and flies that have higher efficiency in pollinating specific crops. We identify 66 insect species that have been, or are considered to have the potential to be, managed for crop pollination, including seven bumble bee species and subspecies currently commercially produced mainly for the pollination of greenhouse-grown tomatoes and two species that are trap-nested in New Zealand. Other managed pollinators currently in use include eight solitary bee species (mainly for pollination services in orchards or alfalfa fields) and three fly species (mainly used in enclosures and for seed production). Additional species in each taxonomic category are under consideration for pollinator management. Examples include 15 stingless bee species that are able to buzz-pollinate, will fly in enclosures, and some of which have a history of management for honey production; their use for pollination is not yet established. To ensure sustainable, integrated pollination management in agricultural landscapes, the risks, as well as the benefits of novel managed pollinator species must be considered. We, therefore, urge the prioritization of biodiversity-friendly measures maintaining native pollinator species diversity to provide ecosystem resilience to future environmental changes.Fil: Osterman, Julia. Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg; Alemania. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; AlemaniaFil: Aizen, Marcelo Adrian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina. Institute for Advanced Study; AlemaniaFil: Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.. Leiden University; Países Bajos. Naturalis Biodiversity Center; Países BajosFil: Bosch, Jordi. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; EspañaFil: Howlett, Brad G.. The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd.; Nueva ZelandaFil: Inouye, David W.. University of Maryland; Estados Unidos. Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Jung, Chuleui. Andong National University; Corea del SurFil: Martins, Dino J.. University of Princeton; Estados UnidosFil: Medel, Rodrigo. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Pauw, Anton. Stellenbosch University; SudáfricaFil: Seymour, Colleen L.. University of Cape Town; Sudáfrica. South African National Biodiversity Institute; SudáfricaFil: Paxton, Robert J. German Centre for integrative Biodiversity Research; Alemania. Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg; Alemani

Global agricultural productivity is threatened by increasing pollinator dependence without a parallel increase in crop diversification

The global increase in the proportion of land cultivated with pollinator-dependent crops implies increased reliance on pollination services. Yet agricultural practices themselves can profoundly affect pollinator supply and pollination. Extensive monocultures are associated with a limited pollinator supply and reduced pollination, whereas agricultural diversification can enhance both. Therefore, areas where agricultural diversity has increased, or at least been maintained, may better sustain high and more stable productivity of pollinator-dependent crops. Given that >80% of all crops depend, to varying extents, on insect pollination, a global increase in agricultural pollinator dependence over recent decades might have led to a concomitant increase in agricultural diversification. We evaluated whether an increase in the area of pollinator-dependent crops has indeed been associated with an increase in agricultural diversity, measured here as crop diversity, at the global, regional, and country scales for the period 1961–2016. Globally, results show a relatively weak and decelerating rise in agricultural diversity over time that was largely decoupled from the strong and continually increasing trend in agricultural dependency on pollinators. At regional and country levels, there was no consistent relationship between temporal changes in pollinator dependence and crop diversification. Instead, our results show heterogeneous responses in which increasing pollinator dependence for some countries and regions has been associated with either an increase or a decrease in agricultural diversity. Particularly worrisome is a rapid expansion of pollinator-dependent oilseed crops in several countries of the Americas and Asia that has resulted in a decrease in agricultural diversity. In these regions, reliance on pollinators is increasing, yet agricultural practices that undermine pollination services are expanding. Our analysis has thereby identified world regions of particular concern where environmentally damaging practices associated with large-scale, industrial agriculture threaten key ecosystem services that underlie productivity, in addition to other benefits provided by biodiversity.Fil: Aizen, Marcelo Adrian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaFil: Aguiar, Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura; ArgentinaFil: Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.. Leiden University; Países Bajos. Naturalis Biodiversity Center; Países BajosFil: Garibaldi, Lucas Alejandro. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Sede Andina. Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaFil: Inouye, David W.. University of Maryland; Estados Unidos. Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Jung, Chuleui. Andong National University; Corea del SurFil: Martins, Dino J.. University of Princeton; Estados UnidosFil: Medel, Rodrigo. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Morales, Carolina Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaFil: Ngo, Hien. UN Campus Platz der Vereinten Nationen. Intergovernmental Science Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services; AlemaniaFil: Pauw, Anton. Stellenbosch University; SudáfricaFil: Paxton, Robert J. Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg; Alemania. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research; AlemaniaFil: Sáez, Agustín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaFil: Seymour, Colleen L.. South African National Biodiversity Institute; Sudáfrica. University of Cape Town; Sudáfric

Reduced level of arousal and increased mortality in adult acute medical admissions: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Background Reduced level of arousal is commonly observed in medical admissions and may predict in-hospital mortality. Delirium and reduced level of arousal are closely related. We systematically reviewed and conducted a meta-analysis of studies in adult acute medical patients of the relationship between reduced level of arousal on admission and in-hospital mortality. Methods We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42016022048), searching MEDLINE and EMBASE. We included studies of adult patients admitted with acute medical illness with level of arousal assessed on admission and mortality rates reported. We performed meta-analysis using a random effects model. Results From 23,941 studies we included 21 with 14 included in the meta-analysis. Mean age range was 33.4 - 83.8 years. Studies considered unselected general medical admissions (8 studies, n=13,039) or specific medical conditions (13 studies, n=38,882). Methods of evaluating level of arousal varied. The prevalence of reduced level of arousal was 3.1%-76.9% (median 13.5%). Mortality rates were 1.7%-58% (median 15.9%). Reduced level of arousal was associated with higher in-hospital mortality (pooled OR 5.71; 95% CI 4.21-7.74; low quality evidence: high risk of bias, clinical heterogeneity and possible publication bias). Conclusions Reduced level of arousal on hospital admission may be a strong predictor of in-hospital mortality. Most evidence was of low quality. Reduced level of arousal is highly specific to delirium, better formal detection of hypoactive delirium and implementation of care pathways may improve outcomes. Future studies to assess the impact of interventions on in-hospital mortality should use validated assessments of both level of arousal and delirium

Airflow Dynamics of Human Jets: Sneezing and Breathing - Potential Sources of Infectious Aerosols

10.1371/journal.pone.0059970PLoS ONE84

Basic Atomic Physics

Contains reports on five research projects.National Science Foundation Grant PHY 96-024740National Science Foundation Grant PHY 92-21489U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Contract N00014-96-1-0484Joint Services Electronics Program Grant DAAHO4-95-1-0038National Science Foundation Grant PHY95-14795U.S. Army Research Office Contract DAAHO4-94-G-0170U.S. Army Research Office Contract DAAG55-97-1-0236U.S. Army Research Office Contract DAAH04-95-1-0533U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Contract N00014-96-1-0432National Science Foundation Contract PHY92-22768David and Lucile Packard Foundation Grant 96-5158National Science Foundation Grant PHY 95-01984U.S. Army Research OfficeU.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Contract N00014-96-1-0485AASERT N00014-94-1-080