Optimal Probabilistic Forecasts for Counts

Optimal probabilistic forecasts of integer-valued random variables are derived. The optimality is achieved by estimating the forecast distribution nonparametrically over a given broad model class and proving asymptotic efficiency in that setting. The ideas are demonstrated within the context of the integer autoregressive class of models, which is a suitable class for any count data that can be interpreted as a queue, stock, birth and death process or branching process. The theoretical proofs of asymptotic optimality are supplemented by simulation results which demonstrate the overall superiority of the nonparametric method relative to a misspecified parametric maximum likelihood estimator, in large but .nite samples. The method is applied to counts of wage claim benefits, stock market iceberg orders and civilian deaths in Iraq, with bootstrap methods used to quantify sampling variation in the estimated forecast distributions.Nonparametric Inference; Asymptotic Efficiency; Count Time Series; INAR Model Class; Bootstrap Distributions; Iceberg Stock Market Orders.

On the distribution of initial masses of stellar clusters inferred from synthesis models

The fundamental properties of stellar clusters, such as the age or the total initial mass in stars, are often inferred from population synthesis models. The predicted properties are then used to constrain the physical mechanisms involved in the formation of such clusters in a variety of environments. Population synthesis models cannot, however, be applied blindy to such systems. We show that synthesis models cannot be used in the usual straightforward way to small-mass clusters (say, M < few times 10**4 Mo). The reason is that the basic hypothesis underlying population synthesis (a fixed proportionality between the number of stars in the different evolutionary phases) is not fulfilled in these clusters due to their small number of stars. This incomplete sampling of the stellar mass function results in a non-gaussian distribution of the mass-luminosity ratio for clusters that share the same evolutionary conditions (age, metallicity and initial stellar mass distribution function). We review some tests that can be carried out a priori to check whether a given cluster can be analysed with the fully-sampled standard population synthesis models, or, on the contrary, a probabilistic framework must be used. This leads to a re-assessment in the estimation of the low-mass tail in the distribution function of initial masses of stellar clusters.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, to appear in ``Young Massive Star Clusters - Initial Conditions and Environments'', 2008, Astrophysics & Space Science, eds. E. Perez, R. de Grijs, R. M. Gonzalez Delgad

Scale Setting in QCD and the Momentum Flow in Feynman Diagrams

We present a formalism to evaluate QCD diagrams with a single virtual gluon using a running coupling constant at the vertices. This method, which corresponds to an all-order resummation of certain terms in a perturbative series, provides a description of the momentum flow through the gluon propagator. It can be viewed as a generalization of the scale-setting prescription of Brodsky, Lepage and Mackenzie to all orders in perturbation theory. In particular, the approach can be used to investigate why in some cases the ``typical'' momenta in a loop diagram are different from the ``natural'' scale of the process. It offers an intuitive understanding of the appearance of infrared renormalons in perturbation theory and their connection to the rate of convergence of a perturbative series. Moreover, it allows one to separate short- and long-distance contributions by introducing a hard factorization scale. Several applications to one- and two-scale problems are discussed in detail.Comment: eqs.(51) and (83) corrected, minor typographic changes mad

Mission Concept for the Single Aperture Far-Infrared (SAFIR) Observatory

The Single Aperture Far-InfraRed (SAFIR) Observatory's science goals are driven by the fact that the earliest stages of almost all phenomena in the universe are shrouded in absorption by and emission from cool dust and gas that emits strongly in the far-infrared and submillimeter. Over the past several years, there has been an increasing recognition of the critical importance of this spectral region to addressing fundamental astrophysical problems, ranging from cosmological questions to understanding how our own Solar System came into being. The development of large, far-infrared telescopes in space has become more feasible with the combination of developments for the James Webb Space Telescope and of enabling breakthroughs in detector technology. We have developed a preliminary but comprehensive mission concept for SAFIR, as a 10 m-class far-infrared and submillimeter observatory that would begin development later in this decade to meet the needs outlined above. Its operating temperature (<4K) and instrument complement would be optimized to reach the natural sky confusion limit in the far-infrared with diffraction-limited peformance down to at least 40 microns. This would provide a point source sensitivity improvement of several orders of magnitude over that of Spitzer or Herschel, with finer angular resolution, enabling imaging and spectroscopic studies of individual galaxies in the early universe. We have considered many aspects of the SAFIR mission, including the telescope technology, detector needs and technologies, cooling method and required technology developments, attitude and pointing, power systems, launch vehicle, and mission operations. The most challenging requirements for this mission are operating temperature and aperture size of the telescope, and the development of detector arrays.Comment: 36 page

Decoherence and entanglement degradation of a qubit-qutrit system in non-inertial frames

We study the effect of decoherence on a qubit-qutrit system under the influence of global, local and multilocal decoherence in non-inertial frames. We show that the entanglement sudden death can be avoided in non-inertial frames in the presence of amplitude damping, depolarizing and phase damping channels. However, degradation of entanglement is seen due to Unruh effect. It is shown that for lower level of decoherence, the depolarizing channel degrades the entanglement more heavily as compared to the amplitude damping and phase damping channels. However, for higher values of decoherence parameters, amplitude damping channel heavily degrades the entanglement of the hybrid system. Further more, no ESD is seen for any value of Rob's acceleration.Comment: 16 pages, 5 .eps figures, 1 table; Quantum Information Processing, published online, 5 July, 201

Magnetoresistance of Three-Constituent Composites: Percolation Near a Critical Line

Scaling theory, duality symmetry, and numerical simulations of a random network model are used to study the magnetoresistance of a metal/insulator/perfect conductor composite with a disordered columnar microstructure. The phase diagram is found to have a critical line which separates regions of saturating and non-saturating magnetoresistance. The percolation problem which describes this line is a generalization of anisotropic percolation. We locate the percolation threshold and determine the t = s = 1.30 +- 0.02, nu = 4/3 +- 0.02, which are the same as in two-constituent 2D isotropic percolation. We also determine the exponents which characterize the critical dependence on magnetic field, and confirm numerically that nu is independent of anisotropy. We propose and test a complete scaling description of the magnetoresistance in the vicinity of the critical line.Comment: Substantially revised version; description of behavior in finite magnetic fields added. 7 pages, 7 figures, submitted to PR

Fluctuation-Induced Interactions between Rods on a Membrane

We consider the interaction between two rods embedded in a fluctuating surface. The modification of fluctuations by the rods leads to an attractive long-range interaction between them. We consider fluctuations governed by either surface tension (films) or bending rigidity (membranes). In both cases the interaction falls off with the separation of the rods as $1/R^4$. The orientational part of the interaction is proportional to $\cos^2\left[ \theta_1+\theta_2 \right]$ in the former case, and to $\cos^2\left[ 2\left(\theta_1+\theta_2\right) \right]$ in the latter, where $\theta_1$ and $\theta_2$ are angles between the rods and the line joining them. These interactions are somewhat reminiscent of dipolar forces and will tend to align collections of such rods into chains.Comment: REVTEX, 14 pages, with 2 Postscript figure

Nonperturbative Effects from the Resummation of Perturbation Theory

Using the general argument in Borel resummation of perturbation theory that links the divergent perturbation theory to the nonperturbative effect we argue that the nonperturbative effect associated with the perturbation theory should have a branch cut only along the positive real axis in the complex coupling plane. The component in the weak coupling expansion of the nonperturbative amplitude, which usually includes the leading term in the weak coupling expansion, that gives rise to the branch cut can be calculated in principle from the perturbation theory combined with some exactly calculable properties of the nonperturbative effect. The realization of this mechanism is demonstrated in the double well potential and the two-dimensional O(N) nonlinear sigma model. In these models the leading term in weak coupling of the nonperturbative effect can be obtained with good accuracy from the first terms of the perturbation theory. Applying this mechanism to the infrared renormalon induced nonperturbative effect in QCD, we suggest some of the QCD condensate effects can be calculated in principle from the perturbation theory.Comment: 21 Pages, 1 Figure; To appear in Phys Rev

Layer dynamics of a freely standing smectic-A film

We study the hydrodynamics of a freely-standing smectic-A film in the isothermal, incompressible limit theoretically by analyzing the linearized hydrodynamic equations of motion with proper boundary conditions. The dynamic properties for the system can be obtained from the response functions for the free surfaces. Permeation is included and its importance near the free surfaces is discussed. The hydrodynamic mode structure for the dynamics of the system is compared with that of bulk systems. We show that to describe the dynamic correlation functions for the system, in general, it is necessary to consider the smectic layer displacement $u$ and the velocity normal to the layers, $v_z$, together. Finally, our analysis also provides a basis for the theoretical study of the off-equilibrium dynamics of freely-standing smectic-A films.Comment: 22 pages, 4 figure

Shoulder muscle activity in sport climbing in naturally chosen and corrected shoulder positions

Objective: The aim of the study was to determine electromyographic activity of the scapula stabilizing muscles in naturally chosen and corrected shoulder positions in typical static climbing postures. Methods: Six male participants undertook surface electromyography measurement in four climbing postures for two different shoulder positions. The activity of the lower, middle and upper trapezius, serratus anterior, pectoralis major, and sternocleidomastoid was recorded. Electromyographic activity was expressed as the percentage of maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) for each muscle. Results: Climbing postures induced higher activation of middle and lower trapezius in corrected shoulder positions (35.3 ± 11.8 and 61.7 ± 15.4% MVC respectively) than in naturally chosen shoulder positions (18.4 ± 8.9 and 30.1 ± 13.8% MVC respectively). The highest activity of the middle and lower trapezius was found in postures with the arm in external rotation and 90° abduction and in an overhanging posture. Low activation was stated for the other muscles in both shoulder conditions. Conclusion: Results showed that climbers naturally elevate the shoulder during typical static postures. Corrected shoulder positions induce higher activation of the scapula stabilizing muscles than naturally chosen shoulder positions.N/