Towards a framework for combining stochastic and deterministic descriptions of nonstationary financial time series

We present in this paper ideas to tackle the problem of analysing and forecasting nonstationary time series within the financial domain. Accepting the stochastic nature of the underlying data generator we assume that the evolution of the generator's parameters is restricted on a deterministic manifold. Therefore we propose methods for determining the characteristics of the time-localised distribution. Starting with the assumption of a static normal distribution we refine this hypothesis according to the empirical results obtained with the methods anc conclude with the indication of a dynamic non-Gaussian behaviour with varying dependency for the time series under consideration

Discovery of Novel Complex Metal Hydrides for Hydrogen Storage through Molecular Modeling and Combinatorial Methods

UOP LLC, a Honeywell Company, Ford Motor Company, and Striatus, Inc., collaborated with Professor Craig Jensen of the University of Hawaii and Professor Vidvuds Ozolins of University of California, Los Angeles on a multi-year cost-shared program to discover novel complex metal hydrides for hydrogen storage. This innovative program combined sophisticated molecular modeling with high throughput combinatorial experiments to maximize the probability of identifying commercially relevant, economical hydrogen storage materials with broad application. A set of tools was developed to pursue the medium throughput (MT) and high throughput (HT) combinatorial exploratory investigation of novel complex metal hydrides for hydrogen storage. The assay programs consisted of monitoring hydrogen evolution as a function of temperature. This project also incorporated theoretical methods to help select candidate materials families for testing. The Virtual High Throughput Screening served as a virtual laboratory, calculating structures and their properties. First Principles calculations were applied to various systems to examine hydrogen storage reaction pathways and the associated thermodynamics. The experimental program began with the validation of the MT assay tool with NaAlH4/0.02 mole Ti, the state of the art hydrogen storage system given by decomposition of sodium alanate to sodium hydride, aluminum metal, and hydrogen. Once certified, a combinatorial 21-point study of the NaAlH4 â LiAlH4 âMg(AlH4)2 phase diagram was investigated with the MT assay. Stability proved to be a problem as many of the materials decomposed during synthesis, altering the expected assay results. This resulted in repeating the entire experiment with a mild milling approach, which only temporarily increased capacity. NaAlH4 was the best performer in both studies and no new mixed alanates were observed, a result consistent with the VHTS. Powder XRD suggested that the reverse reaction, the regeneration of the alanate from alkali hydride, Al and hydrogen, was hampering reversibility. The reverse reaction was then studied for the same phase diagram, starting with LiH, NaH, and MgH2, and Al. The study was extended to phase diagrams including KH and CaH2 as well. The observed hydrogen storage capacity in the Al hexahydrides was less than 4 wt. %, well short of DOE targets. The HT assay came on line and after certification with studies on NaAlH4, was first applied to the LiNH2 - LiBH4 - MgH2 phase diagram. The 60-point study elucidated trends within the system locating an optimum material of 0.6 LiNH2 â 0.3 MgH2 â 0.1 LiBH4 that stored about 4 wt. % H2 reversibly and operated below 220 °C. Also present was the phase Li4(NH2)3BH4, which had been discovered in the LiNH2 -LiBH4 system. This new ternary formulation performed much better than the well-known 2 LiNH2 â MgH2 system by 50 °C in the HT assay. The Li4(NH2)3BH4 is a low melting ionic liquid under our test conditions and facilitates the phase transformations required in the hydrogen storage reaction, which no longer relies on a higher energy solid state reaction pathway. Further study showed that the 0.6 LiNH2 â 0.3 MgH2 â 0.1 LiBH4 formulation was very stable with respect to ammonia and diborane desorption, the observed desorption was from hydrogen. This result could not have been anticipated and was made possible by the efficiency of HT combinatorial methods. Investigation of the analogous LiNH2 â LiBH4 â CaH2 phase diagram revealed new reversible hydrogen storage materials 0.625 LiBH4 + 0.375 CaH2 and 0.375 LiNH2 + 0.25 LiBH4 + 0.375 CaH2 operating at 1 wt. % reversible hydrogen below 175 °C. Powder x-ray diffraction revealed a new structure for the spent materials which had not been previously observed. While the storage capacity was not impressive, an important aspect is that it boron appears to participate in a low temperature reversible reaction. The last major area of study also focused on activating boron-based materials in order to exploit the tremendous gravimetric capacity of LiBH4. A number of LiNH2 â LiBH4 â transition metal (TM) systems were investigated for the following reasons. No additional leads were discovered in this system. Another major project activity was the assembly of a high throughput synthesis system. The automated synthesizer was set up in a glovebox and was capable of handling liquids and powders and carrying out sealed block syntheses up to 250 °C. Unfortunately, the synthesizer could not handle the delivery of the fine powders required fro hydrogen storage applications. Although the powder delivery system was overhauled and redesigned several times, this problem was never remedied

Syrian Foreign Policy and the United States: From Bush to Obama

Exploring the evolution of Syrian foreign policy under President Bashar al-Assad, this concise volume focuses on Syria’s relationship with the United States. The authors consider the enduring determinants of Syrian policy, as well as such key issues as the country’s involvement in Lebanon and its stance vis-à-vis the war in Iraq. They also assess the personal role of President al-Assad and the impact of external forces on internal reforms.Contents:Foreword—R. HinnebuschSyria Under Bashar: Between Economic Reform and Nationalist Realpolitik—R. Hinnebusch.Syrian Foreign Policy: Between Domestic Needs and the External Environment—M.J. Kabalan.The Role of Bashar al-Assad in Syrian Foreign Policy—D. Lesch.Inching Out of Isolation: Managing a Different Relationship with Syria—B. Kodmani

ROSAT Evidence for Intrinsic Oxygen Absorption in Cooling Flow Galaxies and Groups

Using spatially resolved, deprojected ROSAT PSPC spectra of 10 of the brightest cooling flow galaxies and groups with low Galactic column densities we have detected intrinsic absorption over energies ~0.4-0.8 keV in half of the sample. Since no intrinsic absorption is indicated for energies below ~0.4 keV, the most reasonable model for the absorber is collisionally ionized gas at temperatures T=10^{5-6} K with most of the absorption arising from ionized states of oxygen but with a significant contribution from carbon and nitrogen. The soft X-ray emission of this warm gas can explain the sub-Galactic column densities of cold gas inferred within the central regions of most of the systems. Attributing the absorption to ionized gas reconciles the large columns of cold H and He inferred from EINSTEIN and ASCA with the lack of such columns inferred from ROSAT. Within the central ~10-20 kpc, where the constraints are most secure, the estimated mass of the ionized absorber is consistent with most (perhaps all) of the matter deposited by a cooling flow over the lifetime of the flow. Since the warm absorber produces no significant H or He absorption the large absorber masses are consistent with the negligible atomic and molecular H inferred from HI and CO observations of cooling flows. It is also found that if T > ~2x10^5 K then the optical and UV emission implied by the warm gas does not violate published constraints. Finally, we discuss how the prediction of warm ionized gas as the product of mass drop-out in these and other cooling flows can be verified with new CHANDRA and XMM observations. (Abridged)Comment: 17 pages (5 figures), Accepted for publication in ApJ, expanded discussion of multiphase spectral models, theoretical implications of warm gas in cooling flows, and the statistical significance of the oxygen absorptio

Carbon Dioxide Separation with Novel Microporous Metal Organic Frameworks

The goal of this program was to develop a low cost novel sorbent to remove carbon dioxide from flue gas and gasification streams in electric utilities. Porous materials named metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) were found to have good capacity and selectivity for the capture of carbon dioxide. Several materials from the initial set of reference MOFs showed extremely high CO{sub 2} adsorption capacities and very desirable linear isotherm shapes. Sample preparation occurred at a high level, with a new family of materials suitable for intellectual property protection prepared and characterized. Raman spectroscopy was shown to be useful for the facile characterization of MOF materials during adsorption and especially, desorption. Further, the development of a Raman spectroscopic-based method of determining binary adsorption isotherms was initiated. It was discovered that a stronger base functionality will need to be added to MOF linkers in order to enhance CO{sub 2} selectivity over other gases via a chemisorption mechanism. A concentrated effort was expended on being able to accurately predict CO{sub 2} selectivities and on the calculation of predicted MOF surface area values from first principles. A method of modeling hydrolysis on MOF materials that correlates with experimental data was developed and refined. Complimentary experimental data were recorded via utilization of a combinatorial chemistry heat treatment unit and high-throughput X-ray diffractometer. The three main Deliverables for the project, namely (a) a MOF for pre-combustion (e.g., IGCC) CO{sub 2} capture, (b) a MOF for post-combustion (flue gas) CO{sub 2} capture, and (c) an assessment of commercial potential for a MOF in the IGCC application, were completed. The key properties for MOFs to work in this application - high CO{sub 2} capacity, good adsorption/desorption rates, high adsorption selectivity for CO{sub 2} over other gases such as methane and nitrogen, high stability to contaminants, namely moisture, and easy regenerability, were all addressed during this program. As predicted at the start of the program, MOFs have high potential for CO{sub 2} capture in the IGCC and flue gas applications

Tissue damage drives co-localization of NF-kappa B, Smad3, and Nrf2 to direct Rev-erb sensitive wound repair in mouse macrophages

Although macrophages can be polarized to distinct phenotypes in vitro with individual ligands, in vivo they encounter multiple signals that control their varied functions in homeostasis, immunity, and disease. Here, we identify roles of Rev-erb nuclear receptors in regulating responses of mouse macrophages to complex tissue damage signals and wound repair. Rather than reinforcing a specific program of macrophage polarization, Rev-erbs repress subsets of genes that are activated by TLR ligands, IL4, TGF beta, and damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPS). Unexpectedly, a complex damage signal promotes co-localization of NF-kappa B, Smad3, and Nrf2 at Rev-erb-sensitive enhancers and drives expression of genes characteristic of multiple polarization states in the same cells. Rev-erb-sensitive enhancers thereby integrate multiple damage-activated signaling pathways to promote a wound repair phenotype

Variability in the Effect of 5-HTTLPR on Depression in a Large European Population: The Role of Age, Symptom Profile, Type and Intensity of Life Stressors.

BACKGROUND: Although 5-HTTLPR has been shown to influence the risk of life stress-induced depression in the majority of studies, others have produced contradictory results, possibly due to weak effects and/or sample heterogeneity. METHODS: In the present study we investigated how age, type and intensity of life-stressors modulate the effect of 5-HTTLPR on depression and anxiety in a European population cohort of over 2300 subjects. Recent negative life events (RLE), childhood adversity (CHA), lifetime depression, Brief Symptoms Inventory (BSI) depression and anxiety scores were determined in each subject. Besides traditional statistical analysis we calculated Bayesian effect strength and relevance of 5-HTTLPR genotypes in specified models. RESULTS: The short (s) low expressing allele showed association with increased risk of depression related phenotypes, but all nominally significant effects would turn to non-significant after correction for multiple testing in the traditional analysis. Bayesian effect strength and relevance analysis, however, confirmed the role of 5-HTTLPR. Regarding current (BSI) and lifetime depression 5-HTTLPR-by-RLE interactions were confirmed. Main effect, with other words direct association, was supported with BSI anxiety. With more frequent RLE the prevalence or symptoms of depression increased in ss carriers. Although CHA failed to show an interaction with 5-HTTLPR, in young subjects CHA sensitized towards the depression promoting effect of even mild RLE. Furthermore, the direct association of anxiety with the s allele was driven by young (</=30) individuals. LIMITATIONS: Our study is cross-sectional and applies self-report questionnaires. CONCLUSIONS: Albeit 5-HTTLPR has only weak/moderate effects, the s allele is directly associated with anxiety and modulates development of depression in homogeneous subgroups

EUdaphobase - building bridges between cohabiting soil communities, environments, and methodologies

Aim: Edaphobase is a database previously constructed by the Senckenberg Natural Museum in Görlitz in Germany for the purpose of connecting soil invertebrate taxa to their environment. To extend Edaphobase into a warehouse for data on soil biodiversity at the European level and improve its usefulness, COST Action “EUdaphobase” was launched. Action gathers a network of European specialists working on enlarging existing capacities, and improving the technical capabilities, to provide a unique database that would be used by the different levels of stakeholders (from farmers, research and education institutions to decision makers). Taxonomists, ecologists, modelers of soil ecosystem processes, financial and IT specialists joined to form a holistic picture of soil biodiversity and introduce it into the decision-making process in Europe. Method: WG 7 of EUdaphobase is focused on two goals - to enable a framework for integrating the data on fungi, bacteria and microeukaryotes, and collating the data derived by molecular methods (metabarcoding, NGS-based, environmental DNA/RNA), on all soil organism groups. Results: The highly demanding technical problems of incorporating fungal and molecular data into the already existing framework of Edaphobase were resolved. The joint work of researchers working on different soil organisms and techniques resulted in the unique possibility for a variety of users to provide/analyze/use data that include cohabiting taxa, their environments, and mutual relationships. Conclusions: The outcome will enable the usage of the upgraded Edaphobase for holistic soil state evaluation and monitoring, as well as monitoring of the dynamics of soil communities/environments involved in different ecosystem services on the European level.Abstract book was not published in hard copy and can be viewed on the congress site only https://gsb2023.org