How We Predict the Stability of Financial Sector: The Conditional Value at Risk Technique Approach

This study aims to identify the level of systemic risk of each bank and the financial linkages between banks in Indonesia. In this study, researcher uses 41 banks that have been actively traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2013-2018. The data of stock capitalization of banks are used as prices in a portfolio of banking system. The method used in this study is the CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) method which was introduced by Adrian and Brunerrmeir in 2008. The equilibrium of the system is assumed reached at optimum portfolio of the system. At this situation each bank contribution to systemic risk is analyzed, as well as its impact onto it when there is a change in capitalization of a certain bank. The result shows the impact of bank onto systemic risk is not always follow its size in contribution the systemic risk. Due to covariance’s among banks are some positive and others are negative, some banks have negative contribution to systemic risk while others’ are positive. There are 4 banks that have different behavior. These banks have negative contribution to the systemic risk. These banks are BMRI, PNBN, PNBS and NAGA. The negative impact to systemic risk is dominated by BMRI as much as -0.17%, and by PNBN as much as -0.04%. There are 2 major banks that have contribution to systemic risk; BBCA (3,01% or Rp 59,1 trillion) and BBRI (0,54% Rp 10,62 trillion). However their impact on systemic risk are different. The parameters of impact on systemic for BBCA and BBRI are 14,99% and 52,94% respectively. Thus the stability of the system is more sensitive to the volatility of Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) than of Bank Central Asia (BBCA). Keywords: Systemic Risk, Financial Linkage, Value at Risk, Conditional Value at Risk, covariance bankin

Pendekatan Error Correction Model Sebagai Penentu Harga Saham

This research was to find the effect of profitability, rate of interest, GDP, and foreign exchange rate on stockprices. Approach used was error correction model. Profitability was indicated by variables EPS, and ROIwhile the SBI (1 month) was used for representing interest rate. This research found that all variablessimultaneously affected the stock prices significantly. Partially, EPS, PER, and Foreign Exchange rate significantlyaffected the prices both in short run and long run. Interestingly that SBI and GDP did not affect theprices at all. The variable of ROI had only long run impact on the prices

What Factors Influencing Export Quantity for Indonesian and Philippine Coconut Oil

The coconut oil as main product of coconut is not competitive anymore compared to palm oil. Indonesia and Philippines are two biggest producers of coconut. This paper study whether the price of coconut oil, the price of crude palm oil, the price of virgin olive oil, and gross domestic product influence the quantity export for Indonesian and Philippines coconut oil. Using multiple linear regression, the results indicate that in the Philippines the variables used in the study (price of coconut oil, price of crude palm oil, price of virgin olive oil and Philippines GDP) have no significant impact on export quantity for Philippines. While coconut oil export quantity for Indonesia is significantly influenced by Indonesia GDP.Keywords: export of coconut oil, crude palm oil, virgin olive oil, gross domestic produc

Dampak Pertumbuhan Nilai Tukar Riil Terhadap Pertumbuhan Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia (Suatu Aplikasi Model Vector Autoregressive, Var)

This study aimed to test the impact of the growth of real exchange rate towards thegrowth of Indonesian trade balance by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model.By using quarterly data from 1983.1 to 2005.4 periods, the result obtained is inaccordance with other countries which response positively the depreciation ofexchange rate in long term or follow the phenomenon of J-curve. However, the rate ofgrowth is still weak in explaining the growth of trade balance because the model isonly significant estimates at á and based on the decomposition of variation of growthsurprises of real exchange rate is only 2.7% in average which explained the variationof trade balance growth

Analisis Perdagangan Indonesia Pasca Pemberlakuan ACFTA (Studi Komparatif Indonesia-China)

Every international economy linking countries through two channels: trade in goods and services (real sector) and financial sector. Trade relations means that some products from a country that exported abroad, while some goods that are consumed or invested in the country are imported from abroad. The strong role of international trade is partly reflected in the goods market will be able to help us to know how big contribution to the real sector is affected by exchange rate and net exports to increase income or national output. All economies, regardless of size, depends on other economies and are affected by events beyond its limits.The existence of an agreement between Indonesia and China as stipulated in the agreement more or less ACFTA will influence the increase or decrease in Indonesias trade balance are reflected in an increase or decrease in GNP. Indonesias ability to see its comparative advantage will be able to increase the competitiveness of Indonesian products in the international market. Keywords: international trade, net export, and gross domestic produc

Examining the Correlation between Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Indices: A Comparative Analysis of IHSG and Nikkei

This comprehensive research investigates the intricate relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market performance, specifically focusing on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Composite Index (IHSG) and the Nikkei Stock Average. Employing a robust quantitative approach, the study emphasizes key variables such as inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, GDP growth, and oil prices, utilizing regression analysis to unravel unique patterns within the Indonesian and Japanese markets. For IHSG, significant negative correlations with inflation highlight its impact on purchasing power and corporate profitability. The non-significant relationship with the Bank Indonesia Interest Rate (BI Rate) emphasizes market resilience to interest rate fluctuations. The significant negative correlation with the Rupiah underscores the pivotal role of currency stability. Additionally, the non-significant relationship with oil prices suggests a limited influence on IHSG movements. Turning to the Nikkei, non-significant relationships with inflation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Rate, GDP, exchange rates, and oil prices underscore the diverse factors at play. These findings offer valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and researchers, enriching the understanding of the multifaceted influences shaping the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and stock market dynamics in Indonesia and Japan. The study contributes empirically rich insights, addressing gaps in existing literature and paving the way for informed decision-making in the complex landscape of global financial markets

Analisis Peluang Penerbitan Obligasi Daerah sebagai Alternatif Pembiayaan Daerah

Municipal bonds may be used as a source of regional funding.This study aims toanalyze the feasibility of issuing municipal bonds as an alternative source of financ-ing local infrastructure and analyze the strategies to be implemented by the govern-ment in the issuance of local bonds. Analysis tools used in this study were descriptivestatistics and SWOT analysis. The analysis showed that municipal bonds are an alter-native worth considering as a source of financing funding than other areas

Analisis Faktor - Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kemiskinan Di Indonesia Selama Lima Tahun Terakhir

Pembangunan suatu negara adalah hal yang paling utama dilakukan untuk mensejahterakan masyarakat. Salah satu hal yang merupakan tolak ukur pembangunan adlah dengan berkurangnya angka dan pengangguran. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kemiskinan di Indonesia selama kurun waktu lima tahunan 2011-2015. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan uji regresi. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada 33 provinsi yang ada di Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa adanya pengaruh antara IPM dengan kemiskinan, sedangkan untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi dan TPT tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap kemiskinan