Srednjoročni razvoj tržišta žitarica u Republici Hrvatskoj – rezultati modela parcijalne ravnoteže

The aim of the paper is to simulate the future development of the Croatian cereals market using the method of AGEMEMOD partial equilibrium model. The results present the historical (2010-2016) and projected development (2016-2030) of the production and trade in wheat, corn, barley, oats and rye markets. Simulation results show an increase in productivity per hectare and surface stability with the exception of individual culture. Wheat production in the projection period, same as corn, recorded a production increase and change in the trade balance. Croatia remains a net exporter of corn and wheat. For barley, as a third important cereal, the model results show a constant level of production by 2030, but also a positive foreign trade balance til the end of the projection period. Oats and rye, as less significant grains, still retain the status of imported products at the Croatian market. Domestic prices follow the EU prices trends, but will generally remain at a lower level than the average EU price. Despite the price competitiveness in the EU market, the domestic cereal sector is facing problems. In the domestic cereal sector there is a trend of relatively cheap grain export on common market, with expensive final products and processed products import.Cilj rada je prikazati simulaciju razvoja tržišta žitarica korištenjem AGMEMOD modela parcijalne ravnoteže. Rezultati u radu prikazuju povijesni (2010-2016) i projicirani razvoj (2016.-2030) tržišta pšenice, kukuruza, ječma, zobi i raži. Rezultati projekcije prikazuju povećanje produktivnosti i stabilnost površina uz iznimke kod pojedinih kultura. Proizvodnja pšenice u razdoblju projekcije, kao i kukuruza, bilježi povećanje i promjenu vanjskotrgovinske bilance. Hrvatska i dalje ostaje neto izvoznica kukuruza i pšenice. Kod ječma, kao treće žitarice po važnosti, rezultati modela pokazuju stagnaciju razine proizvodnje do 2030., ali i pozitivnu vanjskotrgovinsku bilancu do kraja razdoblja projekcije. Zob i raž kao manje zastupljene žitarice i dalje zadržavaju status proizvoda koje će hrvatsko tržište uvoziti. Domaće cijene prate trendove cijena u EU, ali će uglavnom ostati na nižoj razini od prosječnih cijena na zajedničkom tržištu. Unatoč cjenovnoj konkurentnosti na tržištu EU, domaći sektor žitarica susreće se s problemima. U sektoru je prisutan trend izvoza relativno jeftine sirovine, uz uvoz skupih finalnih proizvoda i prerađevina tog sektora

Simulation of main agrarian policy indicators within beef meat market in The Republic of Croatia by AGMEMOD partial equilibrium model

Srednjoročna simulacija razvoja glavnih agrarno-političkih pokazatelja tržišta goveđega mesa u Hrvatskoj do 2030. godine izrađena je putem modela parcijalne ravnoteže AGMEMOD (AGricultural MEmber State MODeling). Rezultati modela do kraja simuliranoga razdoblja, uz pretpostavku nastavka postojećih mjera i instrumenata Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike, potvrđuju razvoj negativnih trendova u sklopu tržišta goveđega mesa uočenih pregledom povijesnih podataka. Do kraja simuliranoga razdoblja očekuje se smanjenje ukupnoga broja goveda za 8,63% i proizvodnje goveđega mesa za 24,46%, dok domaća potrošnja raste za 25,91%. Negativni proizvodni pokazatelji uz rastuću domaću potrošnju mogli bi uzrokovati rast uvoza goveđega mesa za 82,68%, uz stupanj samodostatnosti od 49% do 2030. godine. Cijena goveđega mesa od ulaska Hrvatske u Europsku uniju je stabilna, te se stabilan razvoj, uz blagi trend smanjenja, očekuje do kraja simuliranoga razdoblja.The mid-term simulation of the main agrarian policy indicators development of Croatian beef meat market by 2030 was made by the AGMEMOD (AGricultural MEmber State MODelling) partial equilibrium model. Model results until the end of the simulated period, assuming the continuation of the existing measures and instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy, confirm the development of negative trends within the beef market, observed through the review of historical data. By the end of the simulated period, it is expected that the total number of cattle will be reduced by 8.63%, and beef meat production by 24.46%, while domestic consumption will be growing by 25.91%. Negative production indicators with growing domestic consumption could cause the growth of beef meat imports by 82.68%, with a self-sufficiency level of 49% by 2030. Since Croatia’s accession to the European Union, producers’ price of beef meat has been stable, and stable development, with a slight downward trend, is expected until the end of the simulated period

Conditions and perspective of cereals and oilseed crops production in the Republic of Croatia

Poljoprivredna proizvodnja u Hrvatskoj, općenito, ima važan značaj pri čemu biljna proizvodnja čini više od 50% ukupne poljoprivredne bruto proizvodnje. Najveću ulogu imaju žitarice i uljarice čija proizvodnja dominira u Panonskoj regiji s naglaskom na njen istočni dio. Cilj ovog rada je prikazati zasijane površine, ostvarenu proizvodnju i vanjskotrgovinsku razmjenu kukuruza, pšenice, ječma, soje, suncokreta i uljane repice tijekom petnaestogodišnjeg razdoblja (2003. - 2017.) u Hrvatskoj. Od ukupnih obradivih površina u analiziranom razdoblju žitarice (kukuruz, pšenica i ječam) zauzimaju oko 60% obradivih površina, a uljarice (soja, suncokret i uljana repica) oko 13%. Analizom podataka utvrđen je trend smanjenja površina pod žitaricama, naročito kukuruza, dok su uljarice pokazale trend rasta pri čemu su površine soje i uljane repice u zadnje tri godine gotovo udvostručene. Pristupanje Republike Hrvatske jedinstvenom tržištu Europske unije pozitivno je utjecalo na povećanje neto izvoza žitarica i uljarica. Prosječni volumen neto izvoza žitarica i uljarica za pet godina članstva u EU se više nego utrostručio u odnosu na prosjek predpristupnog perioda promatranog od 2003. do 2013. godine. Domaće cijene žitarica i uljarica prate trendove cijena na jedinstvenom tržištu uz stabilan razvoj nakon ulaska Hrvatske u Europsku uniju.Agricultural production in Croatia has great significance whereby plant production makes more than 50% of total agricultural gross production. The most important role have cereals and oilseeds crops whose pro- duction dominates in the Pannonian region with an emphasis on its eastern part. Aim of this study was to shown harvested area, production and foreign trade of six most important field crops during fifteen-year period (2003 – 2017)in Croatia. During analysed period cereals (maize, wheat and barley) occupies about 60 % while oilseed crops (soybean, sunflower and rapeseed) about 13% of total arable land. Analysis of the data showed a trend of decline in cereal’s harvested area, especially for maize, while oilseeds showed a growth trend. Soybean and rapeseed areas almost doubled in the last three years. The accession of the Republic of Croatia to the unique European Union market has had a positive effect on the increase in net exports of cere- als and oilseeds. The average volume of net exports of cereals and oilseeds for five years of EU membership has more than tripled compared to the average of the pre-accession period observed from 2003 to 2013. Domestic prices of cereals and oilseeds follow price trends on the Single Market with stabile development after Croatia joins the European Union

Partial equilibrium model of livestock production in the Republic of Croatia

AGMEMOD (Agriculture Member State Modelling) ekonometrijski, dinamički, višeproizvodni model parcijalne ravnoteže i odgovarajuća AGMEMOD metodologija primijenjena je u izradi modela parcijalne ravnoteže stočarske proizvodnje Republike Hrvatske. Stočarski model kombiniran je u hrvatski nacionalni model parcijalne ravnoteže poljoprivredne proizvodnje, te je pomoću istoga analizirana procjena utjecaja integracijskih procesa i procjene utjecaja očekivanih budućih promjena u sklopu Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike (ZPP) na ključna tržišta agrarnoga sektora Republike Hrvatske. Utjecaji pristupanja Republike Hrvatske u Europsku uniju (EU) na glavna tržišta poljoprivrednih proizvoda istraženi su analizom pregleda (eng. outlook) tržišta ključnih ratarskih i stočarskih proizvoda do 2030. godine. Projicirani trendovi uspoređeni su sa projiciranim EU trendovima novih (EU 13) i starih (EU 15) država članica. Analize utjecaja očekivanih budućih promjena u sklopu nove reforme ZPP-a istraženi su putem tri stilizirana scenarija čiji izgled nalikuje scenarijima koje je predstavila Europska komisija za procjenu učinaka promjena politike na EU razini. Rezultati pregleda tržišta ključnih poljoprivrednih proizvoda u Republici Hrvatskoj do 2030. godine ukazuju kako je uvođenje instrumenata ZPP-a imalo značajan utjecaj na promjenu proizvodne strukture u korist biljne proizvodnje, te su buduća kretanja ključnih tržišta poljoprivrednih proizvoda u Republici Hrvatskoj slična projiciranim trendovima novih država članica (EU 13). Scenarijske analize otkrivaju kako bi svako daljnje smanjenje izravnih potpora bez promjena tehnologije i ulaganja na poljoprivrednim gospodarstvima moglo uzrokovati ozbiljan pad poljoprivredne proizvodnje u Hrvatskoj, poglavito u sektoru stočarstva i to u govedarskom i mljekarskom sektoru. Međutim, utjecaji promjena nove reforme ZPP-a neće biti toliko drastični da bi došlo do potpunog sloma proizvodnje na bilo kojem od ključnih poljoprivrednih tržišta Hrvatske do 2030. godine.AGMEMOD (Agriculture Member State Modeling) an econometric, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium model and the appropriate AGMEMOD methodology was applied in the development of the partial equilibrium model of livestock production in the Republic of Croatia. The livestock model was combined into the Croatian national partial equilibrium model of agricultural production, and was used to analyze the impact of integration processes and the impacts of expected future changes under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the key agricultural markets in the Republic of Croatia. The impact of Croatia's accession to the European Union (EU) on the main agricultural markets has been investigated by analyzing the outlook of the key crop and livestock products market by 2030. The projected trends are compared to the projected EU trends of the new (EU 13) and old (EU 15) Member States. Impacts of the expected future changes under the new CAP reform have been analyzed through three stylized scenarios which are similar to those presented by the European Commission to assess the impact of policy changes at EU level. The results of the market outlooks for key agricultural products in Croatia by 2030 indicate that the introduction of CAP instruments had a significant impact on changing the production structure in favor of crop production, and that the future Croatian key agricultural markets trends are similar to the projected trends of the new Member States (EU 13). Scenario analyzes reveal that any further reduction of direct payments without changes in technology and investments on farms could cause a serious decline in agricultural production in Croatia, especially in the livestock sectors mainly in the beef and dairy sector. However, scenario results indicate that the impact of the new CAP reform will not be so drastic that there would be a complete breakdown of production in any of Croatia's key agricultural markets by 2030

Partial equilibrium model of livestock production in the Republic of Croatia

AGMEMOD (Agriculture Member State Modelling) ekonometrijski, dinamički, višeproizvodni model parcijalne ravnoteže i odgovarajuća AGMEMOD metodologija primijenjena je u izradi modela parcijalne ravnoteže stočarske proizvodnje Republike Hrvatske. Stočarski model kombiniran je u hrvatski nacionalni model parcijalne ravnoteže poljoprivredne proizvodnje, te je pomoću istoga analizirana procjena utjecaja integracijskih procesa i procjene utjecaja očekivanih budućih promjena u sklopu Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike (ZPP) na ključna tržišta agrarnoga sektora Republike Hrvatske. Utjecaji pristupanja Republike Hrvatske u Europsku uniju (EU) na glavna tržišta poljoprivrednih proizvoda istraženi su analizom pregleda (eng. outlook) tržišta ključnih ratarskih i stočarskih proizvoda do 2030. godine. Projicirani trendovi uspoređeni su sa projiciranim EU trendovima novih (EU 13) i starih (EU 15) država članica. Analize utjecaja očekivanih budućih promjena u sklopu nove reforme ZPP-a istraženi su putem tri stilizirana scenarija čiji izgled nalikuje scenarijima koje je predstavila Europska komisija za procjenu učinaka promjena politike na EU razini. Rezultati pregleda tržišta ključnih poljoprivrednih proizvoda u Republici Hrvatskoj do 2030. godine ukazuju kako je uvođenje instrumenata ZPP-a imalo značajan utjecaj na promjenu proizvodne strukture u korist biljne proizvodnje, te su buduća kretanja ključnih tržišta poljoprivrednih proizvoda u Republici Hrvatskoj slična projiciranim trendovima novih država članica (EU 13). Scenarijske analize otkrivaju kako bi svako daljnje smanjenje izravnih potpora bez promjena tehnologije i ulaganja na poljoprivrednim gospodarstvima moglo uzrokovati ozbiljan pad poljoprivredne proizvodnje u Hrvatskoj, poglavito u sektoru stočarstva i to u govedarskom i mljekarskom sektoru. Međutim, utjecaji promjena nove reforme ZPP-a neće biti toliko drastični da bi došlo do potpunog sloma proizvodnje na bilo kojem od ključnih poljoprivrednih tržišta Hrvatske do 2030. godine.AGMEMOD (Agriculture Member State Modeling) an econometric, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium model and the appropriate AGMEMOD methodology was applied in the development of the partial equilibrium model of livestock production in the Republic of Croatia. The livestock model was combined into the Croatian national partial equilibrium model of agricultural production, and was used to analyze the impact of integration processes and the impacts of expected future changes under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the key agricultural markets in the Republic of Croatia. The impact of Croatia's accession to the European Union (EU) on the main agricultural markets has been investigated by analyzing the outlook of the key crop and livestock products market by 2030. The projected trends are compared to the projected EU trends of the new (EU 13) and old (EU 15) Member States. Impacts of the expected future changes under the new CAP reform have been analyzed through three stylized scenarios which are similar to those presented by the European Commission to assess the impact of policy changes at EU level. The results of the market outlooks for key agricultural products in Croatia by 2030 indicate that the introduction of CAP instruments had a significant impact on changing the production structure in favor of crop production, and that the future Croatian key agricultural markets trends are similar to the projected trends of the new Member States (EU 13). Scenario analyzes reveal that any further reduction of direct payments without changes in technology and investments on farms could cause a serious decline in agricultural production in Croatia, especially in the livestock sectors mainly in the beef and dairy sector. However, scenario results indicate that the impact of the new CAP reform will not be so drastic that there would be a complete breakdown of production in any of Croatia's key agricultural markets by 2030

Partial equilibrium model of livestock production in the Republic of Croatia

AGMEMOD (Agriculture Member State Modelling) ekonometrijski, dinamički, višeproizvodni model parcijalne ravnoteže i odgovarajuća AGMEMOD metodologija primijenjena je u izradi modela parcijalne ravnoteže stočarske proizvodnje Republike Hrvatske. Stočarski model kombiniran je u hrvatski nacionalni model parcijalne ravnoteže poljoprivredne proizvodnje, te je pomoću istoga analizirana procjena utjecaja integracijskih procesa i procjene utjecaja očekivanih budućih promjena u sklopu Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike (ZPP) na ključna tržišta agrarnoga sektora Republike Hrvatske. Utjecaji pristupanja Republike Hrvatske u Europsku uniju (EU) na glavna tržišta poljoprivrednih proizvoda istraženi su analizom pregleda (eng. outlook) tržišta ključnih ratarskih i stočarskih proizvoda do 2030. godine. Projicirani trendovi uspoređeni su sa projiciranim EU trendovima novih (EU 13) i starih (EU 15) država članica. Analize utjecaja očekivanih budućih promjena u sklopu nove reforme ZPP-a istraženi su putem tri stilizirana scenarija čiji izgled nalikuje scenarijima koje je predstavila Europska komisija za procjenu učinaka promjena politike na EU razini. Rezultati pregleda tržišta ključnih poljoprivrednih proizvoda u Republici Hrvatskoj do 2030. godine ukazuju kako je uvođenje instrumenata ZPP-a imalo značajan utjecaj na promjenu proizvodne strukture u korist biljne proizvodnje, te su buduća kretanja ključnih tržišta poljoprivrednih proizvoda u Republici Hrvatskoj slična projiciranim trendovima novih država članica (EU 13). Scenarijske analize otkrivaju kako bi svako daljnje smanjenje izravnih potpora bez promjena tehnologije i ulaganja na poljoprivrednim gospodarstvima moglo uzrokovati ozbiljan pad poljoprivredne proizvodnje u Hrvatskoj, poglavito u sektoru stočarstva i to u govedarskom i mljekarskom sektoru. Međutim, utjecaji promjena nove reforme ZPP-a neće biti toliko drastični da bi došlo do potpunog sloma proizvodnje na bilo kojem od ključnih poljoprivrednih tržišta Hrvatske do 2030. godine.AGMEMOD (Agriculture Member State Modeling) an econometric, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium model and the appropriate AGMEMOD methodology was applied in the development of the partial equilibrium model of livestock production in the Republic of Croatia. The livestock model was combined into the Croatian national partial equilibrium model of agricultural production, and was used to analyze the impact of integration processes and the impacts of expected future changes under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the key agricultural markets in the Republic of Croatia. The impact of Croatia's accession to the European Union (EU) on the main agricultural markets has been investigated by analyzing the outlook of the key crop and livestock products market by 2030. The projected trends are compared to the projected EU trends of the new (EU 13) and old (EU 15) Member States. Impacts of the expected future changes under the new CAP reform have been analyzed through three stylized scenarios which are similar to those presented by the European Commission to assess the impact of policy changes at EU level. The results of the market outlooks for key agricultural products in Croatia by 2030 indicate that the introduction of CAP instruments had a significant impact on changing the production structure in favor of crop production, and that the future Croatian key agricultural markets trends are similar to the projected trends of the new Member States (EU 13). Scenario analyzes reveal that any further reduction of direct payments without changes in technology and investments on farms could cause a serious decline in agricultural production in Croatia, especially in the livestock sectors mainly in the beef and dairy sector. However, scenario results indicate that the impact of the new CAP reform will not be so drastic that there would be a complete breakdown of production in any of Croatia's key agricultural markets by 2030

Accession impact and outlook for Croatian and EU crop and livestock markets

Aim of study: To investigate the impact of Croatia’s accession to the EU on its agricultural sector, its market outlook and the EU’s key agricultural products up to 2030.Area of study: Croatia and European Union member statesMaterial and methods: Comparative approach was used in order to identify similarities of the changes that took place when other Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) acceded to the EU (results of previously conducted research) with the changes that happened in Croatia (historical data between 2010 and 2016). The second approach involved the AGMEMOD partial equilibrium model, which has been used as a comprehensive tool to model the complex outlook of Croatian agricultural markets. The results of the Croatian outlook were compared to the EU’s AGMEMOD outlook results in order to identify future trends in key agricultural market development (production, yield and net trade) and whether these newly established trends were comparable with EU trends.Main results: The changes that took place in the Croatian agricultural sector during and after the EU accession period are not significantly different from the trends and changes observed in other Central and Eastern EU member states. Similarities can especially be found in neighbouring CEEC countries (Hungary and Slovenia), which kept their producer prices close to EU levels prior to accession. Furthermore, the results indicate a similarity with CEEC trends in terms of the strengthening of crop production compared to livestock.Research highlights: Positive effects of EU integration on the Croatian agricultural sector took place after a few years of adjustment. Simulations of future market developments indicate many similarities between Croatia and EU 13 member states

Outlook and Perspective of Croatian Pork Meat Market - Partial Equilibrium Model Simulation

AGMEMOD modelom parcijalne ravnoteže izrađena je simulacija pregleda tržišta svinjskog mesa u Republici Hrvatskoj do 2030. godine. Rezultati modela simuliraju buduća kretanja broja svinja, proizvodnje, potrošnje, uvoza, izvoza i cijena svinjskog mesa prema ceteris paribus tržišnim uvjetima uz primjenu postojećih mjera i instrumenata agrarne politike u tom sektoru do kraja razdoblja simulacije. Unatoč padu broja svinja i proizvodnje svinjskog mesa prije i nakon pristupanja u EU-u, u nadolazećem razdoblju očekuje se blagi oporavak domaćeg tržišta svinjskog mesa. No, domaća proizvodnja neće zadovoljavati domaću potražnju te će Hrvatska i dalje ostati uvoznica svinjskog mesa do kraja simuliranog perioda.Outlook on Croatian pork meat market up to the year 2030 was simulated by AGMEMOD partial equilibrium model. The results simulate future changes in the number of pigs, production, consumption, imports, exports and price of pork meat under ceteris paribus market conditions, along with the existing structure of agrarian policy until the end of the simulated period. Despite the decrease in the number of pigs and pork meat production before and after EU accession, a slight recovery of the pork meat market is expected in the forthcoming period. However, domestic production will not meet domestic demand, and Croatia will continue to import pork meat by the end of the simulated period

Outlook and Perspective of Croatian Pork Meat Market - Partial Equilibrium Model Simulation

Outlook on Croatian pork meat market up to the year 2030 was simulated by AGMEMOD partial equilibrium model. The results simulate future changes in the number of pigs, production, consumption, imports, exports and price of pork meat under ceteris paribus market conditions, along with the existing structure of agrarian policy until the end of the simulated period. Despite the decrease in the number of pigs and pork meat production before and after EU accession, a slight recovery of the pork meat market is expected in the forthcoming period. However, domestic production will not meet domestic demand, and Croatia will continue to import pork meat by the end of the simulated period

Accession impact and outlook for Croatian and EU crop and livestock markets

Aim of study: To investigate the impact of Croatia’s accession to the EU on its agricultural sector, its market outlook and the EU’s key agricultural products up to 2030.Area of study: Croatia and European Union member statesMaterial and methods: Comparative approach was used in order to identify similarities of the changes that took place when other Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) acceded to the EU (results of previously conducted research) with the changes that happened in Croatia (historical data between 2010 and 2016). The second approach involved the AGMEMOD partial equilibrium model, which has been used as a comprehensive tool to model the complex outlook of Croatian agricultural markets. The results of the Croatian outlook were compared to the EU’s AGMEMOD outlook results in order to identify future trends in key agricultural market development (production, yield and net trade) and whether these newly established trends were comparable with EU trends.Main results: The changes that took place in the Croatian agricultural sector during and after the EU accession period are not significantly different from the trends and changes observed in other Central and Eastern EU member states. Similarities can especially be found in neighbouring CEEC countries (Hungary and Slovenia), which kept their producer prices close to EU levels prior to accession. Furthermore, the results indicate a similarity with CEEC trends in terms of the strengthening of crop production compared to livestock.Research highlights: Positive effects of EU integration on the Croatian agricultural sector took place after a few years of adjustment. Simulations of future market developments indicate many similarities between Croatia and EU 13 member states